Contra's FX Journal

Quote from oldtime:

what were you looking at to pick up that move in JPY?
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I plot relative strength across all sovs. JPY was starting to show RS, but it was early. I wasn't looking for much at the time as I didn't have confirmation.

USDCAD is close to a buy (9830-35) to target .9945. I shorted USDCAD at .9898 with 10 pip risk as I assumed the test of 99 would fail. Got out at 65 here. Tried to post it but I was in a dead zone in the car. Ignore the trade, but I've been fairly successful in CAD lately.
 
Yea CAD has been strong.

Just read this..

"Real money have been buying lots of CAD over the past two weeks, slightly less this past 5 trading sessions than the 5 before. They've done a U-turn on GBP, flipping from heavy sellers to heavy buyers (#1 most bought currency past week)" -IFR, but probably taken from BNY Mellon? Sounds like their iflow thing.

"The consensus view from our survey seems to be to take risk in FI/credit/EM, funding yourself in EUR (or USD). FX appears to be mostly of interest as a vehicle for cheap funding." -SocGen

Talking decade low volumes for some FX products.

Think I have to agree on the USD/CAD trade too. IMO, S&P could fade from up here soon. They were talking super low volumes. Maybe a bit more to go into the weekly close.
 
I just sold some at 9866, not so much because I disagree with anybody, I just needed to get short some USD and that looked like the best place to do it.

that cad/jpy has been very strong for me and I'm looking for a little more
 
Quote from contra:

yea, I hear ya. we'll see... Its hard for me to jump into a sell right here and now going into friday. Watching EUR/CAD too.


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I hear ya also, it's always nice to get a signal which also fades, but sometimes I have to go with the trend, better late than never

like that JPY, it had already blown through the atticus target when I finally jumped on

Buy late sell early?
 
Quote from oldtime:

I hear ya also, it's always nice to get a signal which also fades, but sometimes I have to go with the trend, better late than never

like that JPY, it had already blown through the atticus target when I finally jumped on

Buy late sell early?
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I hear you on sticking with the trend oldtime, no doubt.

I have no problem going for new highs or lows with it after a pullback and confirmed signal such as with the cross jpy pairs today... but once it has broken that far out of consolidation/range to a level I can't pull the trigger. I need atleast a consolidation to wind down the techs and give another go or a pullback.

I also (in most cases) like to wait until the london markets open and into the crossover.

I have missed some trades with those guidelines, but more times then not this does me good I think.
 
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