Contra's FX Journal

[oldtime]

Quote from contra:

I like a long aussie better perhaps... I know you don't want to long aussie though lol.

0630's

It'll be a cold day in Indiana before you see me get long AUD

 

[contra]

Quote from oldtime:

It'll be a cold day in Indiana before you see me get long AUD

lol i figured. That would be miserable to get caught out on a top after being short.

I would just wait for negative sentiment in markets with nice PA confirmation on dailies. back to 0400's or so.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from contra:

lol i figured. That would be miserable to get caught out on a top after wanted to be short.

I would just wait for negative sentiment in markets with nice PA confirmation on dailies.

yeah well, they already owe me quite a bit, just on the carry

 

[contra]

that's exactly why i don't like being short unless markets are in fear mode for a quick play when you get unwinding of carry into safe havens.

better to play a range long in aussie for just the carry then be short and going nowhere with swap against you.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from contra:

that's exactly why i don't like being short unless markets are in fear mode for a quick play when you get unwinding of carry into safe havens.

better to play a range long in aussie for just the carry then be short and going nowhere with swap against you.

yeah, that's what more knowledgable traders told me when I got short, that the carry trade would probably hold

 

[atticus]

Quote from contra:

Ok sounds good. This is a hard call for me, I don't think we'll go far either way into this weekly close. I'd go for a shot at 2450/60's later if China data is good. May have to wait for Europe though. If you rather short, wait until that is hit and global indices turn red, they do look vulnerable up here.

Bad... target 2300. i see atleast a shot above 2400 though either way watch that swing high on draghi @ 2405

we're closing right on the 50 fib from the last swing high on dailies.

I'll do some more research later and see whats doing the rounds. I need a nap this is just off the top right now.




atticus... good call on this week.

Wut? Refresh my memory as I've slept exactly 11 1/2 hours all week. Another sleepless night tonight, but I'll crash after the close tomorrow.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from atticus:

Wut? Refresh my memory as I've slept exactly 11 1/2 hours all week. Another sleepless night tonight, but I'll crash after the close tomorrow.

what's your secret? I could go for one of those 11 1/2 hour sleeps.

 

[contra]

ok nap nap time over.

Quote from atticus:

Wut? Refresh my memory as I've slept exactly 11 1/2 hours all week. Another sleepless night tonight, but I'll crash after the close tomorrow.

damn, that is champion status... I have a bit more but not much

you said something like, "I still believe we trade to a NH next week, but otherwise a bunch of inside days. Vol should drop to 15.00 on VIX. Euro will be tight too."

 

[contra]

i stick with my call before, we test highs on risk across the board...

If euro isn't capped 2450's... 2500 or so is next stop but I feel like there are sellers in wait.

and eur/gbp and eur/aud weighing on euro...

 

[contra]

DJ: Some hedge funds have found a new venue to wager on a worsening outlook for Europe: the platinum market. In recent months, a number of money managers have ratcheted up their bets on a decline in platinum prices to the highest level ever in the futures market. The rationale is simple: Platinum's main use is to scrub pollutants from the tailpipe emissions of diesel-fueled cars, and Europe is by far the world's largest market for those cars. Platinum has dropped 18% in price since the end of February. On Wednesday, the front-month futures contract for August delivery inched down 20 cents to $1,408.70 a troy ounce on CME Group's New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had hit a seven-month low of $1,382.30 on July 24.

lol