Contra's FX Journal

I am thinking as an exotic play, maybe long the miss at 0671 and long AUD/USD 0583? cut the hedge at 0630/35 area. a 1w play.

I really like the idea of this stuff if I had interbank prices.
 
EUR/JPY also.... The implieds are up vs most of the others with a slight bias to puts on 1W and 1M RRs.

I can see the risk on intervention and euro squeeze but im doubting both within a week.
 
did you catch that article from the SNB? Many, myself included were skeptical about the peg, since it has never worked for very long in the past. It so far has worked amazingly well. The general consensus was, the peg would break down if the EUR breaked down. But oh contraire. SNB says they will break the peg if EUR goes too high. (but they expect it to go lower)
 
Yea i am amazed myself, i thought it would crack awhile ago... but this is why it is expected they have a bunch to sell now.
 
Quote from contra:

lol still working the short aussie trade?
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yes, it's going to be the death of me. It is eventually going to go down some time, right? I mean, that's what they say on tv.

I'm pot commited, I can't get long. Don't think I could endure the humiliation if I abandon my shorts and get long and it starts going down.

I don't have much of a face, but I'm trying to save what I have left.
 
Quote from oldtime:

yes, it's going to be the death of me. It is eventually going to go down some time, right? I mean, that's what they say on tv.

I'm pot commited, I can't get long. Don't think I could endure the humiliation if I abandon my shorts and get long and it starts going down.

I don't have much of a face, but I'm trying to save what I have left.
More...

haha I hear you on that.

some big Japanese offers up at 0600 so you're not the only one. I am not so sure the aussie will go too far down I can see 0500 levels again but... I gotta say we go higher now until I get a strong signal otherwise.

good luck though oldtime.

what would level would get you out of this heat -interest lost?

try selling some more at 0636 or so instead of 08?

this hour close printed a lower high lets see what the aussie session closes at and I think this could drop some on TP's perhaps, although risk-on in Europe would destroy it.
 
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