Contango is back

ogarbitrage · Jan 22, 2015

Huge build in crude today.

U.S. oil stockpiles rise more than expected - EIA

ogarbitrage · Jan 22, 2015

Oil prices will stabilise at current levels - Mercuria

What is everyone doing out there?

FCXoptions · Jan 22, 2015

I am sitting on my hands, I feel like it could go lower fundamentally, but I question whether that will actually happen. I've been contemplating a position for the past 2 weeks but haven't held anything for more than a day.

Still in FRO and have a call on USO for Jan 2016

m1nt · Jan 22, 2015

ogarbitrage said:
What is everyone doing out there?

still long FRO shares from $3.00-$3.11. bought a little more this morning. sold Feb $3 calls at a good profit prior to tank thank goodness! getting long Jan 2016 and 2017 OTM calls. Have a few TNK shares.

ogarbitrage · Jan 22, 2015

I added to my March call position today and put on some catastrophe hedges yesterday. Bought more Feb puts in crude yesterday as well.

FCXoptions · Jan 22, 2015

Saudi King has died

ogarbitrage · Jan 22, 2015

The plot thickens.

FCXoptions · Jan 26, 2015

Slightly off topic, but what is everyone's thoughts on nat gas today with this big storm coming? I was debating on buying a NG call. I was kind of surprised to see it is down based on how much the news is pumping the story of a historic blizzard.

FCXoptions · Jan 26, 2015

Well, looks like the market isn't anticipating this to be anything like last year.

ogarbitrage · Jan 30, 2015

Apologize for lack of posting this week. On travel in the East so posting will be sporadic for several weeks.

Maverick74 said:
Thnx for posting that. What are you hearing about Andrew Hall? Did he puke out all of his 2018, 19 20 stuff? I suspect he might be a size buyer at these levels on the long end of the curve.

Not specifically Hall related, but I found this to be an interesting perspective about the backs. Gunvor has a sharp eye for these markets so I like to be in the same trade as them.

Gunvor: no rebound to $100 oil, contango to deepen

"I suspect there is some potential for that contango to steepen. Particularly as companies are curbing their spending that looks to me like a very cheap back end of the curve," Fyfe said.