Contango is back
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
The data I saw this afternoon was bearish distillates and gasoline. Hard to imagine with the fleet sitting out in the USGC waiting for cargo.
I sold half of my crude puts this afternoon. Will most likely hedge the balance if the rate of decline slows over the coming days.
I don't have a price target as it's hard to imagine how much capital may flood into the sector with pain everywhere else. If the storage arbs open we will see tight capacity, high day rates, appreciation of tanker values, and an increasing global surplus of stagnant crude.
I bought more shares, more calls, and some Jan $3 puts to hedge a retrace in the next week. I believe we are going higher but could see some short pressure and profit taking tomorrow. I am buying calls/shares on dips and using profits to buy puts on the way up. Risk and protection are my priorities.
Bearish? A big increase or decrease in inventory? I could read that either way.
Where were you able to find data?
Thanks in advance.
The API releases inventory data on Tuesday afternoons while the DOE releases Wednesday morning. Usually the API is given less weight by the market with most participants focusing on the DOE release.
Here are the APIs:
API Results week of January 2nd
Crude Oil Inventories: -4.0M bbls DRAW (vs. 760k BUILD previously)
Cushing: 482k bbls BUILD (vs. +1.8m BUILD previously)
Gasoline: +6.9m BUILD (vs. 1.7m BUILD previously)
Distillate: +9.1m BUILD (vs. 313k BUILD previously)
Refinery Utilization: +0.2% to 93.9%
Sold almost all of my crude puts this morning. Still holding about 5% of my original position.
DOEs look bearish. Gasoline build of 8m bbls and distillates building 11m bbls.
I closed out all of my oil futures positions. I still have naked calls that I wrote on USO which will expire next week safely out of the money.
This is looking like a lot of new money pouring into the futures, looking to catch the bottom. Waiting to read Cushing storage levels, due at 1PM EST.
I think that oil futures will bounce for the next week or so, but will drift lower, being drug down by the spot market.
This is looking like a lot of new money pouring into the futures, looking to catch the bottom. Waiting to read Cushing storage levels, due at 1PM EST.
I think that oil futures will bounce for the next week or so, but will drift lower, being drug down by the spot market.
UPDATE 2-U.S. distillate, gasoline stocks soar by record 19 mln bbls
I re-established a short position further out on the curve. If we rally further I will be adding. Fundamental picture still very bearish. With the inventory data in mind, I think everyone is saying, "Why are we rallying?"
I re-established a short position further out on the curve. If we rally further I will be adding. Fundamental picture still very bearish. With the inventory data in mind, I think everyone is saying, "Why are we rallying?"