Consumer Is The "Only" Strength Of US Economy

[BuySellSideTrader2020]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30...
30% of U.S. adults say they are likely to spend less this Black Friday than last year. Only 19% say they plan to spend more.
26% say they will spend less money on Cyber Monday than last year, but this is offset by 27% who say they are likely to spend more.
76% of consumers name websites as the media where they are most likely to learn about post-Thanksgiving sales, deals, and promotions, followed by email (50%) and TV (32.9%).
When consumers were asked which media they prefer most to learn about holiday sales, they picked websites first (45.5%). Their least-preferred media for learning about Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals is radio (1.6%).

What are your thoughts on the US economy and the global economy?

 

[smallfil]

The US economy is doing fine and robust and way, way better than Europe and China. Other Asian countries are also, showing signs of improved economic activity. More than likely, the US-China trade war will continue with the Phase 1 deal, which is a tiny baby step still under negotiation. I give it a 5% chance of being signed and put the blame on the Chinese playing their silly games. Almost 2 years of negotiating a trade deal and all they have is this very limited Phase 1 deal which still has not been signed by the Chinese? The harder issues are in Phase 2 which probably will not get signed as well. More likely, tariffs could go up to 50% because that would be needed to prod the Chinese to either a sign a fair trade deal with the US. If not, the US can just decouple from China and buy its goods from other Asian countries. That is $500 billion annually. This would totally, destroy the Chinese economy resulting in a win by the US by default.

 

[zdreg]

The consumer realizes inflation is coming.

 

[BuySellSideTrader2020]

The consumer realizes inflation is coming.

https://knoema.com/kyaewad/us-inflation-forecast-2019-2024-and-up-to-2060-data-and-charts

 

[AKUMATOTENSHI]

Comparing singles day sales in China to (Black Friday+Cyber Monday) in the Continental US the purchasing power indicated a Sino-centric tilt.by shear volume the American consumer is dwarfed the what was spent with the Rhenimbi. Taking a visual parking lot survey and observing shopping carts vs. bags outbound from the brick and mortar location, it appeared to be normal. The US consumer at this location is still wary of asperational purchases.

Akuma

 

[Dizaj]

As per latest information, it seems that this year’s Black Friday beat expectations on spending. Once again statistics have failed to predict actual outcome or probably consumer sentiment is changeable category

 

[AKUMATOTENSHI]

Still looking for a actual data set comparison population adjust ie. Wealth spent per citizen. (Chinsese singles day compared to US Black Friday/Cyber Monday) It would be a good set to set the amount of discretionary disposable income in each nation state. Looking to parlay it for a USD/CNY currency trade.

Akuma
P.S. The devil needs to know

 

[murray t turtle]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30...
30% of U.S. adults say they are likely to spend less this Black Friday than last year. Only 19% say they plan to spend more.
26% say they will spend less money on Cyber Monday than last year, but this is offset by 27% who say they are likely to spend more.
76% of consumers name websites as the media where they are most likely to learn about post-Thanksgiving sales, deals, and promotions, followed by email (50%) and TV (32.9%).
When consumers were asked which media they prefer most to learn about holiday sales, they picked websites first (45.5%). Their least-preferred media for learning about Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals is radio (1.6%).

What are your thoughts on the US economy and the global economy?

%%
Looks like SPY,VOO, QQQ, DOW ........... was right; going up.Price or holiday sales?? Yes ........................................................................................................................

 

[AKUMATOTENSHI]

Here come the commodity spike. Gold,silver, oil,rice,cotton, sugar,etc. Still waiting for RBOB to go up high enough to piss off the plebian consumers.

 

[murray t turtle]

Here come the commodity spike. Gold,silver, oil,rice,cotton, sugar,etc. Still waiting for RBOB to go up high enough to piss off the plebian consumers.

%%
Good call on silver/SLV; havent looked @ a gasoline chart lately, i usually buy only a bit it of gas for my HMC 4 clylinder, unless i think the retail dealers may gap UP the price , later in the Week LOL.....................................................................................