Consumer Confidence and Credit Card Deliq. GOING DOWN THE TOILET

Quote from waggie945:

If you think the market is oversold and due for a bounce, then why not just go LONG???

:)
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Because the risk downside is greater. And if I do go long and play this bounce it would be with a fraction of normal size.

--MIKE
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

The difference is simply that now valuations are much higher than they were before. Also now people are realizing that the fed will have to start raising sooner than later.

Also people were expecting jobs to fully recover as the fed and bush predicted but this failed to materialize.

A year ago the stock market was in the shit hole making new multi year lows.. everyone was bearish.. and we just won the war with Iraq.. we were in the midst of getting those tax cuts ... crude was in the low 30's after the war in iraq... also the fed really started pumping money into the economy.

As you can tell things were much different. Now we are in the after party waiting to see how alll of this stimulus will play out. And the smart money realizes that the whole thing was a flop because we have almost no jobs created and the high price of energy will negate 50% of the tax cuts.

The main difference is perception and expectations. The market is discounting the next 3-6 months down the line... and there are a lot of more risks than there were right after we won the war in iraq last year.

--MIKE
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There really is not much difference between a year ago and now aside from the terrorist issues being blown out of proportion.

Fed's cheap money tricks have puffed up the interest sensitive stocks so thats why we are where we are now. But why would the market deflate unless the cheap money scam was to blow up in our faces. The job situation is the same, the corporate profits are still nothing more than a reflection of a cheaper dollar and cost cutting (along with fake outsourcing savings), the GDP & productivity are still misleading. Inflation is alive and well even though the government has been lying about it.
So if you believe that the rally was justified, then the market is priced correctly at moment. There is still a very large bear sentiment so this market can easily rip just to screw the shorts AGAIN.

Using fundamentals does not make sense for this market right now as it did not a year ago. If everyone came to their senses, this market should turn into a strong bearish wave. That would be a godsend comparing to the crap this market is going through now. There is something else going on.

Listen I hope that you are right but I just do not see this market selling off in heavy volume. I would not mind it making some new highs for the election either. Just no more of this ridiculously fake volume and low volatility.

April earnings should be interesting.
 
I don't think I would base tomorrow's trading or the next day's BULL run on what the CEO of Applied Materials tells a bunch of analysts. What else is he gonna tell'em? The stock has been hit hard the past few days and it's probabably about to get worse. Lots worse imo.

The buyback is going to be used to fund stock options and incentives!! Wholly MoLy. Nice way to waste money. How many flat screens does he or any other naive bullish types out there think all those debt ridden consumers need or even "want" for their "unfurnished" $500,000.00 homes? I'd look to Select Comfort before I look to Applied Materials as a bellweather on the coming months or even years to tell us when the economy has actually "turned the corner."

But hey, I hope the bulls are very active tomorrow on such "great news." Please, anyone taking what Applied Materials CEO is saying as gospel, #1 has never run a company, and #2 has never heard of Jeff Skilling.

Look at the volume, volume, volume. What were the trade desks doing today . . . . NOTHING. Same as yesterday.

Does it really matter though if he's right and she's wrong. I trade what the market gives me. Long - I'm long. Short - I'm short. In the end, it seems to me that anyone fighting a "perma-anything" is missing 50% of what's available to them. The market moves both ways, day in and day out. Why not go with the flow.

Anyway, hey, how many options do you think AMAT's CEO has or is setting aside for his own stash huh? Uh huh, we're just "in the beginning" of all this "potential." Excuse me, it's just really hard to swallow.
 
You really are quite ignorant, aren't you?

First of all, you need to read a lot more carefully since it was not the CEO of AMAT that made these remarks at the shareholder meeting. Second of all, the CFO Joseph Bronson did not have to say that the recovery in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, "is in the early stages, and not the later stages."

I actually believe that that was a meaningfull comment.
And guess what?

The market apparently agrees with me since the SMH is +.92 just 90 minutes into the session with the Nasdaq +31.00

It sucks to be short all the time, doesn't it?
 
Too bad you have such a hard time going long, my friend.

Looks like that major fib retracement at SPX 1087 is proving to be pretty valuable.

:)
 
Naaaaaa.
That shareholder meeting by the CFO at AMAT and his comments about a recovery in the chip-ecotr didn't do anything for the market or chip-stocks now did it?

SMH: +1.30 at $39.26

:D
 
I think the market can have some more legs into this rally.. notice volume has been really poor. Waggie nice call on picking the bottom... although I think it was mostly luck.

Porbably tomorrow I willl look to start shorting again.
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

I think the market can have some more legs into this rally.. notice volume has been really poor. Waggie nice call on picking the bottom... although I think it was mostly luck.

Porbably tomorrow I willl look to start shorting again.
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You are so full of shit.
 
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