Constitutional Crisis in Spain

[Tsing Tao]

From MISH'S
Global Economic
Trend Analysis

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/11/constitutional-crisis-in-spain-pro.html

Spain takes a giant step towards a full-blown constitutional crisis as Catalans overwhelmingly elect candidates promising a break-up vote.

Catalonia has delivered a sweeping mandate to political parties pledging to hold a referendum on independence in elections that place the northern Spanish region on a collision course with Madrid.

In a vote billed as “the most decisive elections in the history of Catalonia” by Artur Mas, the region’s president, pro-referendum parties won 87 of the Catalan parliament’s 135 seats.

Following weeks of intense debate about Catalonia’s future relationship with Spain, turnout was 69.5 per cent, the highest for a Catalan regional election in nearly 30 years.

The vote comes amid pressure from various regions around Europe for more independence, including proposals for a referendum on the issue in Scotland in 2014.

Spain’s central government has said any move to push ahead with a referendum on independence for Catalonia, which has an economy the size of Portugal’s and makes up about a fifth of Spanish output, would be illegal and against the Spanish constitution.

Catalonia has built up a debt pile of €42bn, the largest of all of Spain’s 17 regions, and is currently locked out of international capital markets. Earlier this year the region was forced to request an emergency €5bn credit line from Spain’s central government to avoid defaulting on payments.

Messy Politics

The ruling (Center-Right) Convergència i Unió party which favors a referendum actually lost 12 seats in the election, from 62 to 50. However, it lost those seats to more radical pro-independence groups.

Artur Mas, leader of Convergència promised a referendum but will have to align with even more radical groups to produce one according to CNN.

Artur Mas, president of the region's parliament, promised a referendum on independence for one of Spain's most important regions if he won re-election.

But after the election, Mas has a more difficult task because his center-right Convergence and Union coalition lost 12 of its 62 seats, a strong setback for a party that was hoping to gain a simple majority in the 135-seat legislative body.

The Catalan Republican Left party was the big winner in the elections, winning 21 seats, according to the Catalonia elections web site, which reported 98% of the votes had been counted.

The Catalan Republican Left party also backs independence, and the two parties could form a majority in parliament on the independence issue.

They, however, differ on most other issues, especially economic policy.

Voters in Catalonia, the most powerful economically of Spain's 17 regions, heeded the call that these would be historic elections, even if independence wasn't on the ballot Sunday. They voted during a deep economic crisis in the eurozone countries, especially in Spain and in Catalonia. Voter turnout was the highest in 24 years for Catalan elections, officials said.

The Spanish government in Madrid vows to block any self-determination referendum, arguing that the constitution does not permit a region alone to decide its independence.

Last September 11, an estimated 1.5 million people -- 20% of Catalonia's population -- filled the streets of Barcelona, the Catalan capital and Spain's second-largest city, demanding independence.

A survey earlier this month by the Catalan government's polling center showed 57% of Catalans would vote for independence, a 6% increase from last June and a 14% increase from a year and a half ago.

Judging from the election, I suspect the percentage who would vote for independence is much higher.

A showdown with Madrid looms.
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Tired of debt and unemployment by socialist politicians, the Catatonians revolt. Good on them.

 

[Petsamo]

If Spain has a King, the King has to take control. The only way to save Spain and other socialist countries and PIIGS is to bring back the free markets. Rioters like those in Greece have to be jailed.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from Petsamo:

If Spain has a King, the King has to take control. The only way to save Spain and other socialist countries and PIIGS is to bring back the free markets. Rioters like those in Greece have to be jailed.

Ah yes, jailing all the people who riot because they're starving in the streets and cannot pay for their homes...yes, that'll teach 'em. Go after all those traitors who are against bailout out banks and subverting Greek national sovereignty.

Never mind that pesky aspect on how the cops are now rioting because of cuts as well. Don't mean to question orders, General, but who should we use to round up the cops?

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Ah yes, jailing all the people who riot because they're starving in the streets and cannot pay for their homes...yes, that'll teach 'em. Go after all those traitors who are against bailout out banks and subverting Greek national sovereignty.

Never mind that pesky aspect on how the cops are now rioting because of cuts as well. Don't mean to question orders, General, but who should we use to round up the cops?

Man I am a GENIUS.

I knew YOU would find this and post it.

Okay, now for the convo. Catalina will be crushed. It will not be Madrid who crushes this little rebellion. It will be Berlin.

The public sentiment cools considerably if Catalan declares independence with the reward of expulsion from the EU.

That is how they are playing this.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Man I am a GENIUS.

I knew YOU would find this and post it.

Okay, now for the convo. Catalina will be crushed. It will not be Madrid who crushes this little rebellion. It will be Berlin.

The public sentiment cools considerably if Catalan declares independence with the reward of expulsion from the EU.

That is how they are playing this.

I think the people know exactly that independence means they are not EU members. The choice to split from Spain is seconded only from their choice to split from the clutches of the EU.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

I think the people know exactly that independence means they are not EU members. The choice to split from Spain is seconded only from their choice to split from the clutches of the EU.

According to polling ( granted they are not run by Nate Silver), the Catalinians are not so keen on independence if it means life outside of the EU. I heard this story on BBC just this morning. They want to leave Spain, but not if the EU decides to expel them for it.

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from RCG Trader:

According to polling ( granted they are not run by Nate Silver), the Catalinians are not so keen on independence if it means life outside of the EU. I heard this story on BBC just this morning. They want to leave Spain, but not if the EU decides to expel them for it.

You have utterly no idea what you're talking about, as usual.