Good call. And if just does the opposite of what he feels, he will probably do well. Seriously, try it with a small position.
consistently trading at wrong times
- Thread starter mute9003
- Start date
I think it is more than swapping Long-Short. It is about the lead up to it that needs to swap. I would look at the comfort level issue someone mentioned above. Comfortable trades for beginners often look a lot like a "discount" on a trend when they are really a counter trend happening or starting to happen.
Today I did 3 "catch the falling knife" trades, which are in the plan at reduced size. All three worked out, eventually but R:R was marginal, IMO. On the other hand, the trend trades were 70% win rate. In those comfort came AFTER the entry not Before. Versus the "knife" trades, uncomfortable before and after, at least for me, but I could see for a beginner, comfort before, and uncomfortable after. Hope that helps.
Today I did 3 "catch the falling knife" trades, which are in the plan at reduced size. All three worked out, eventually but R:R was marginal, IMO. On the other hand, the trend trades were 70% win rate. In those comfort came AFTER the entry not Before. Versus the "knife" trades, uncomfortable before and after, at least for me, but I could see for a beginner, comfort before, and uncomfortable after. Hope that helps.
A tip of the hat to Robert Morse for his post from which this was lifted,
'What is your process?
What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
What triggers an exit?
How do you size your trades?
When you made money, why would you say that worked when you did the same thing on another trade and it failed?'
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/mentors-and-education.341110/#post-5026834
What would you say belongs in a solid trading plan?
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...solid-trading-plan.340340/page-4#post-5031706
Check out Connor's use of standard deviation channels, they've helped me tremendously as far as timing goes. I don't use his non-extended-hours thing, just the regular one works a treat.
As the first commenter says, "With standard deviations, from a statistical standpoint the selected data is as follows:68% of samples are within 1 sd, 95% of samples are within 2 sd, 99.7% of samples are within 3 sd" so you're using statistics to help trade. You can look up bell curves for more info on that. Anyway, it helps take out the emotion because...math!
As the first commenter says, "With standard deviations, from a statistical standpoint the selected data is as follows:68% of samples are within 1 sd, 95% of samples are within 2 sd, 99.7% of samples are within 3 sd" so you're using statistics to help trade. You can look up bell curves for more info on that. Anyway, it helps take out the emotion because...math!
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i have no plan of my own
i have been watching the charts and people/s reactions to news and other things in comments to see how it all relates to eachother..
i havent really got into it seriously until maybe 2 months ago and started reading books and learning much more intensively about the entire process thats how i stumbled on this forum is reading the insider buy superstocks book.
the entire last and this year year i was simply buying based on the market movement.
was buying when stock dips then it seems to dip even more right after i buy lol
there are memes about it in facebook groups...
then once it picks back up it seems to stay just under my buy price
i made money by being patient and waiting until stock goes back up.
which is a crappy strategy. but it kept me from losing money, i just lost time
i bought dpw then it spiked by about 10 dollars. but i was too damn lazy and made a rookie mistake, went back to sleep when it was up by 9 bucks if i sold at that time instead of sleeping it would have been a good 4500 dollar day but i sold later that day with only 1700 up
then i bought it again and it dipped below dollar and i was stuck in -1500 bucks for abotu 5 months before it went back up and i made another 700 bucks on it.
then did same exact thing with nokia. except in the end i made zero progress
it was mostly this year that i have been having poor judgement when buying stocks. and having to sell at a small loss almost every time.
i was mostly trying to see if this is a common problem for new traders where you judge the market completely backwards after your beginers luck runs out
i have been watching the charts and people/s reactions to news and other things in comments to see how it all relates to eachother..
i havent really got into it seriously until maybe 2 months ago and started reading books and learning much more intensively about the entire process thats how i stumbled on this forum is reading the insider buy superstocks book.
the entire last and this year year i was simply buying based on the market movement.
was buying when stock dips then it seems to dip even more right after i buy lol
there are memes about it in facebook groups...
then once it picks back up it seems to stay just under my buy price
i made money by being patient and waiting until stock goes back up.
which is a crappy strategy. but it kept me from losing money, i just lost time
i bought dpw then it spiked by about 10 dollars. but i was too damn lazy and made a rookie mistake, went back to sleep when it was up by 9 bucks if i sold at that time instead of sleeping it would have been a good 4500 dollar day but i sold later that day with only 1700 up
then i bought it again and it dipped below dollar and i was stuck in -1500 bucks for abotu 5 months before it went back up and i made another 700 bucks on it.
then did same exact thing with nokia. except in the end i made zero progress
it was mostly this year that i have been having poor judgement when buying stocks. and having to sell at a small loss almost every time.
i was mostly trying to see if this is a common problem for new traders where you judge the market completely backwards after your beginers luck runs out
Post screenshots of three trade possibilities. Post them to this thread, the next three chart's screenshot images you are considering. Post what you like about each one. You will get plenty of feedback and maybe the best of the three, maybe suggestions for alternates, maybe bad advice.
Post Three. Let's see what happens.
No hurry, better focus on grabbing the information than hurrying, if you wanna be profitable in the long-run.