Quote from mark trader:
Selling Puts seem to have low risk, since as soon as the trade starts getting away from you, you could close (buy to close) the position before the strike is hit and get out without getting assigned?
So, I think I am missing something, when I keep hearing the trade could "blow up"? it seems to me, it would only blow up when the short position is not closed and the trade is allow to continue to go in the opposite direction.
Am I missing something?
All good responses, here's one more -
One thing you are missing is the loss befoe you get assigned. Here's what happens -
- You sell the put and count the cash. Great!
- After a week, the stock falls a couple of standard deviations. but still not to the put strike. However, the put has doubled in price. No fair! And now you're in the hole much more than you planned. Your account balance shows you down by what looks like ALOT.
- The stock creeps down more. You tell yourself as long as it is above the strike, you'll hang in there. Oh - you haven't been able to sleep well for a couple of weeks now.
- The stock touches the short strike. Should you buy the put back? It is triple what you sold it for now. But that theta stuff should help soon! If you hang in there the premium should dissappear because the stock can't drop anymore. Stupid market makers.
- Stock keeps dropping, but you get some comfort that you always have a little money that you can make back, since the put always has time value. It's funny how it is always like that.
- During expiration week the stock gaps down more. Your wife looks over your shoulder and notices you've lost three mortgage payments on the sure thing naked put strategy. Hilarity ensues. Game Over!
I think that's how people that don't know much about IV and naked premium risks manage a trade like this when it starts to go wrong. Anyway, if your plan starts with counting how much money you have coming in, and ends there, you should stay far away from selling naked puts.