Considering Trading Treasury Bonds Futures

I have been considering getting into trading treasury bond futures using depth of market/order book, but I am having some qualms about whether it is the right path.

I have a little over $3m and I am in my early 30s. I am a corporate lawyer (with lots of finance experience so I have a decent grasp of finance although not much experience with derivatives). But I don't want to stay in this field. But given my young age and the family we're starting (one kid), I can't just leave my job....I don't have enough money to essentially retire....I need to bring in some income. That is why I became interested in trading.

But I could just invest some money into a hedge fund or prop fund trading treasury bond futures using depth of market who are probably a lot better at it than I could ever be (OTOH the funds charge fees). There is also the question of whether that is the best return that I can get with that money. I have financial advisers and hopefully they are picking good investments and are more capable at doing so than I am.

So it really only makes sense for me to pursue trading treasury bond futures if I can reach the point of (i) making a pretty sizable amount of money each year (say $100k pre-tax) and (ii) making a pretty high ROI (so I make that $100k using a pretty small amount of capital...maybe $200k or even less if possible). I have no idea whether these things are realistic. I know it would take awhile for me to become good. And then I know that I would be up against algos. Personality wise I think I would be well suited to trading but I can kind of tell that it probably is not what I am looking for.

There is a great thread here in ET that explains some of the Order book/DOM techniques.
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/can-it-be-done.228757/
 
Keep it simple. Straight QQQ. forget gold. It’s a dumb money comfort trade. Currently.

If you replace my portfolio with simple QQQ, then it achieved profit of about 150% for past 20 years, only 1/30 of the profit of my portfolio.
 
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If you replace my portfolio with simple QQQ, then it achieved profit of about 150% for past 20 years, only 1/30 of the profit of my portfolio.
But... but... he just stated "Proven nobody can beat the qqq." :rolleyes:
 
But... but... he just stated "Proven nobody can beat the qqq." :rolleyes:

notice when people making these claims they all use %, not real $... and yesterday when I asked Fidelity has 168,000 401k millionaires how many day traders have made $1m.... so far 1 guy raised hand (without supporting evidence... but who cares lol)

I know people who can pull $300-1000 out of the market on daily basis... problem is usually the mindset is so locked down on that kind of scale they can't go any further.. in this case I can give the benefit of the doubt that he did make 30 times the QQQ... the next question is why is he wasting time here.... should have been running a $100m fund already with that kind of track record... or maybe he already is, that's good for him...

of course there are people like PTJ.. but at 12.5% annual, virtually (figurative speech) no fund managers can beat the qqq over the long term.
 
I have been considering getting into trading treasury bond futures using depth of market/order book, but I am having some qualms about whether it is the right path.

I have a little over $3m and I am in my early 30s. I am a corporate lawyer (with lots of finance experience so I have a decent grasp of finance although not much experience with derivatives). But I don't want to stay in this field. But given my young age and the family we're starting (one kid), I can't just leave my job....I don't have enough money to essentially retire....I need to bring in some income. That is why I became interested in trading.

But I could just invest some money into a hedge fund or prop fund trading treasury bond futures using depth of market who are probably a lot better at it than I could ever be (OTOH the funds charge fees). There is also the question of whether that is the best return that I can get with that money. I have financial advisers and hopefully they are picking good investments and are more capable at doing so than I am.

So it really only makes sense for me to pursue trading treasury bond futures if I can reach the point of (i) making a pretty sizable amount of money each year (say $100k pre-tax) and (ii) making a pretty high ROI (so I make that $100k using a pretty small amount of capital...maybe $200k or even less if possible). I have no idea whether these things are realistic. I know it would take awhile for me to become good. And then I know that I would be up against algos. Personality wise I think I would be well suited to trading but I can kind of tell that it probably is not what I am looking for.
Since this original post, have you backtested anything and come up with timeframe you like?
 
considering getting into trading

1) the source (don't tell me) of the $3m, if you did it, then trading may be for you. if you bumped into it, you may want so seek counseling before putting it at risk. that's a respectable chunk o change considering that to duplicate it from ground level would require overcoming friction of existance costs (the nut, food clothing wine women song housing, family, etc etc etc), taxes, time (irreplacable), you'd need to scrape up $6m or more to end up with a pile of $3m, no?

you're 30.
?be the best at the skill and career you are trained in, hell, somebody's gotta do it. if possible refine your time usage so that you either up your legal income or up your spare time, your choice. if you go with more disposable time, be diligently expert at your j.o.b. and with your newfound time take a measured methodical approach to trading or maybe even investing.

bleed off some of your income into the trading realm and after five or ten years, if your trading income outstrips your j.o.b. income, ...

i know nothing about your situation so just though i'd throw some at the wall, maybe something you can use in there. cheers
 
the 5 year and 10 years treasury bills is most liquid and active at the exchange that with ES and the NQ

that is where exchange and brokers get all their fees from.

trading is kind of unsatisfying and like a machine , in fact, lots of market making at major banks and brokers been automated. there is no human interaction like in open outcry and you have no clue who is buying or selling...very cold and boring market actually, it's just all machines , i don't see how that many shares can trade like that


I have been considering getting into trading treasury bond futures using depth of market/order book, but I am having some qualms about whether it is the right path.

I have a little over $3m and I am in my early 30s. I am a corporate lawyer (with lots of finance experience so I have a decent grasp of finance although not much experience with derivatives). But I don't want to stay in this field. But given my young age and the family we're starting (one kid), I can't just leave my job....I don't have enough money to essentially retire....I need to bring in some income. That is why I became interested in trading.

But I could just invest some money into a hedge fund or prop fund trading treasury bond futures using depth of market who are probably a lot better at it than I could ever be (OTOH the funds charge fees). There is also the question of whether that is the best return that I can get with that money. I have financial advisers and hopefully they are picking good investments and are more capable at doing so than I am.

So it really only makes sense for me to pursue trading treasury bond futures if I can reach the point of (i) making a pretty sizable amount of money each year (say $100k pre-tax) and (ii) making a pretty high ROI (so I make that $100k using a pretty small amount of capital...maybe $200k or even less if possible). I have no idea whether these things are realistic. I know it would take awhile for me to become good. And then I know that I would be up against algos. Personality wise I think I would be well suited to trading but I can kind of tell that it probably is not what I am looking for.
 
What you don't want to be in the 'law' sector anymore?

you've spent 8 years of law school to trade? the only thing trading or financial sector is securities law etc.

as legal, I don't get how that much financial crime in the streets and SEC says it's a 'regulated' market. and as 'regulated market' it the most unregulated market.

finance is boring..trading is gambling and its' just trading and market making there is no need for market makers in trading bonds. the bond market is liquid.



I have been considering getting into trading treasury bond futures using depth of market/order book, but I am having some qualms about whether it is the right path.

I have a little over $3m and I am in my early 30s. I am a corporate lawyer (with lots of finance experience so I have a decent grasp of finance although not much experience with derivatives). But I don't want to stay in this field. But given my young age and the family we're starting (one kid), I can't just leave my job....I don't have enough money to essentially retire....I need to bring in some income. That is why I became interested in trading.

But I could just invest some money into a hedge fund or prop fund trading treasury bond futures using depth of market who are probably a lot better at it than I could ever be (OTOH the funds charge fees). There is also the question of whether that is the best return that I can get with that money. I have financial advisers and hopefully they are picking good investments and are more capable at doing so than I am.

So it really only makes sense for me to pursue trading treasury bond futures if I can reach the point of (i) making a pretty sizable amount of money each year (say $100k pre-tax) and (ii) making a pretty high ROI (so I make that $100k using a pretty small amount of capital...maybe $200k or even less if possible). I have no idea whether these things are realistic. I know it would take awhile for me to become good. And then I know that I would be up against algos. Personality wise I think I would be well suited to trading but I can kind of tell that it probably is not what I am looking for.
 
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