Conservative Options Trades

UNP:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dump-union-pacific-corporation-unp-183006931.html

http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/17/investing/railroad-stocks-us-economy/index.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.UNP.NYS?symbol=UNP&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNP

Trade:
With UNP at 102.31
Nov 120/125 bear call spread for a net credit of $29
Yield = 29/471 = 6.2% in 154 days or 14.6% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(29) - .05(471) - .04(235) = 26.39 - 23.55 - 9.4 = -6.6

Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM %
75.00............... 29.00...................... 6.20%
95.00............... 29.00...................... 6.20%
110.00............. 29.00...................... 6.20%
120.00............. 29.00...................... 6.20%
120.29............... 0.00....................... 0.00%
124.12........... (383.20).................. -76.64%
125.00........... (471.00).................. -94.20%
140.00........... (471.00).................. -94.20%
150.00........... (471.00).................. -94.20%
 
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AAPL:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102782459

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL

Trade:
With AAPL at 128.39
Oct 110/105 bull put spread for a net credit of $44
Yield = 44/456 = 9.6% in 114 days or 31.0% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(44) - .03(456) - .05(228) = 40.48 - 13.68 - 11.4 = 15.4

Price................. Profit / Loss.............. ROM %
78.75..................... (456.00).............. -91.20%
94.44..................... (456.00).............. -91.20%
105.00................... (456.00).............. -91.20%
109.56........................ 0.00.................. 0.00%
110.00....................... 44.00................. 9.60%
110.95....................... 44.00................. 9.60%
127.46....................... 44.00................. 9.60%
143.97....................... 44.00................. 9.60%
160.48....................... 44.00..................9.60%
 
YUM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-yum-stock-204108226.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...stock-could-fall.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.YUM.NYS?symbol=YUM&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=YUM+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

Trade:
With YUM at 91.51
Oct 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $21
Yield = 21/479 = 4.4% in 113 days or 14.2% annualized
Prob = 97%
Expectation = .97(21) - .01(479) - .02(240)= 20.4 - 4.8 - 4.8 = 10.8

Price.................. Profit / Loss............ ROM %
48.75................... (479.00)................. -95.80%
61.35................... (479.00)................. -95.80%
65.00................... (479.00)................. -95.80%
69.79........................ 0.00..................... 0.00%
70.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40%
75.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40%
80.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40%
90.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40%
95.00...................... 21.00..................... 4.40%
 
AAL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-american-airlines-aal-231811007.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aal

Trade:
Jan 55/60 bear call spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 201 days or 11.6% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(30) - .06(470) - .05(235) = 26.7 - 28.2 - 11.8 = -13.3

Price................... Profit / Loss............ ROM %
30.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40%
40.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40%
45.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40%
55.00........................ 30.00.................. 6.40%
55.30.......................... 0.00.................. 0.00%
56.95..................... (164.80).............. -32.96%
60.00..................... (470.00).............. -94.00%
65.00..................... (470.00).............. -94.00%
75.00..................... (470.00).............. -94.00%
 
MYL:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rumor-teva-raise-mylan-bid-202008626.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-plans-raise-mylan-bid-163902739.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYL+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

Trade:
With MYL at 71.49
Jan '17 50/47 bull put spread for a net credit of 1.2
Yield = 120/180 = 66% in 6 months or 130% annualized
Prob =??
Expectation = ??

Price............. Profit / Loss............. ROM %
35.00................. (180.00)............. -60.00%
45.00................. (180.00)............. -60.00%
47.00................. (180.00)............. -60.00%
48.80...................... 0.00................. 0.00%
50.00................... 120.00............... 40.00%
55.00................... 120.00............... 40.00%
65.00................... 120.00............... 40.00%
75.00................... 120.00............... 40.00%
85.00................... 120.00............... 40.00%
 
UAL:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-united-continental-flights-grounded-134621931.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UAL

Trade:
with UAL at 53.16
Jan 70/75 bear call spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 191 days or 16.6% annualized
Prob = 84%

Price ..............Profit / Loss ...........ROM %
40.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70%
50.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70%
60.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70%
70.00.................... 40.00................. 8.70%
70.40...................... 0.00................. 0.00%
72.00................. (160.50)............. -32.10%
75.00................. (460.00)............. -92.00%
82.88................. (460.00)............. -92.00%
90.00................. (460.00)............. -92.00%
 
HUM:

http://www.investopedia.com/stock-a...atch-made-heaven-aet-hum.aspx?partner=YahooSA

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hum

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/180695/aetnahumana-merger-why-investors-are-uncertain-and-wary

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...announces-37-billion-merger-with-rival-humana

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.HUM.NYS?symbol=HUM&form=PRFIEQ


Trade:
with HUM at 187.16
Jan '16 145/140 bull put spread for a net credit of $90
Yield = 90/410 = 22% in 189 days or 42% annualized
Prob = ?
Expectation = ?

Price............. Profit / Loss......... ROM %
105.00............... (410.00).......... -78.00%
120.00............... (410.00).......... -78.00%
140.00............... (410.00).......... -788.00%
144.10.................... 0.00.............. 0.00%
145.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00%
155.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00%
175.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00%
200.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00%
220.00.................. 90.00............. 22.00%
 
BHP:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-bhp-billiton-bhp-104310171.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.BHP.NYS?symbol=BHP&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bhp

Trade:
With BHP At 39.67
Jan 50/55 bear call spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 186 days or 14.8% annualized
Prob = 84%

Price.................. Profit / Loss.............. ROM %
29.75........................ 35.00................... 7.50%
37.24........................ 35.00................... 7.50%
45.12........................ 35.00................... 7.50%
50.00........................ 35.00................... 7.50%
50.35......................... 0.00.................... 0.00%
52.99..................... (264.30)................ -52.86%
55.00..................... (465.00)................ -92.50%
60.87..................... (465.00)................ -92.50%
68.75..................... (465.00)................ -93.50%
 
GPRO:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...hot-at-dominating-the-drone-market-2015-07-14

http://www.mercurynews.com/60-secon.../biz-break-gopro-soars-after-barclays-upgrade

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GPRO.NAS?symbol=GPRO&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GPRO+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true}

Trade:
With GPRO at 54.50
Jan 2017 50/60 bull call spread for a net debit of $340

Price.......... Profit / Loss........ ROI %
37.50............ (340.00)......... -100.00%
45.00............ (340.00)......... -100.00%
50.00............ (340.00)......... -100.00%
52.27............ (112.70)......... -33.15%
53.40................. 0.00............. 0.00%
59.85............. 644.80.......... 189.65%
60.00............. 660.00.......... 194.12%
65.00............. 660.00.......... 194.12%
70.00............. 660.00.......... 194.12%
 
BBY:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-slowdown-leads-bofa-to-cut-rating?cmpid=yhoo

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/be...bearish-from-bullish-2015-07-17?siteid=yhoof2

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bby

Trade:
With BBY at 32.58
Jan 37.49/41.49 bear call spread for a net credit of $46
Yield = 46/354 = 13% in 182 days or 25% annualized
Prob = 81%
Expectation = .81(46) - .07(354) - .12(177) = 37.3 - 24.8 - 21.2 = -9

Price............. Profit / Loss........... ROM %
25.00................ 46.00................. 13.00%
30.00................ 46.00................. 13.00%
35.00................ 46.00................. 13.00%
37.49................ 46.00................. 11.50%
37.95.................. 0.00.................. 0.00%
40.78............. (283.10).............. -70.78%
41.49............. (354.00).............. -87.00%
45.00............. (354.00).............. -87.00%
50.00............. (354.00).............. -87.00%
 
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