Conservative Options Trades

MCD:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-plots-turnaround-sales-continue-134358232.html

http://www.zacks.com/commentary/37961/bear-of-the-day-mcdonald39s-mcd

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MCD+Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mcd

Trade:
with MCD at 97.28
Sept 110/115 bear call spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.38% in 149 days or 15.6% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(30) - .08(470) - .07(235) = 25.5 - 37.6 - 16.4 = -28.5

Price................... Profit / Loss.............. ROM %
72.96........................ 30.00...................... 6.38%
86.55........................ 30.00...................... 6.38%
100.85...................... 30.00...................... 6.38%
110.00...................... 30.00...................... 6.38%
110.30....................... 0.00....................... 0.00%
115.00...................... (470.00).................. -94.00%
115.15...................... (470.00).................. -94.00%
129.45...................... (470.00).................. -94.00%
143.75...................... (470.00).................. -94.00%
 
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HSY:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-hsy-lags-q1-earnings-192107112.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-misses-q4-fy-earnings-152603963.html
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.HSY.NYS?symbol=HSY&form=PRFIEQ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hsy

Trade:
with HSY at 94.93
Jan 110/115 bear put spread for a net credit of $31
Yield = 31/469 = 6.6% in 267 days or 9% annualized
Prob = 80%

Price............ Profit / Loss............ ROM %
70.00................ 31.00................... 6.60%
85.00................ 31.00................... 6.60%
100.00.............. 31.00................... 6.60%
110.00.............. 31.00................... 6.60%
110.31................ 0.00................... 0.00%
114.44............ (412.60)................ -82.52%
115.00............ (469.00)................ -93.80%
130.00............ (469.00)................ -93.80%
145.00............ (469.00)................ -93.80%
 
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GM:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1312...ter-earnings-miss.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-motors-gm-misses-q1-202208441.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ss-that-estimated-with-russia-brazil-problems
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...motors-time-to-buy/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GM
Trade:
With GM at 35.92
Jan 30/27 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
Yield = 33/267 = 12.3% in 266 days or 16.9% annualized
Prob = 80%

Price.............. Profit / Loss........... ROM %
20.00................ (267.00)............... -89.00%
25.00................ (267.00)............... -89.00%
27.00................ (267.00)............... -89.00%
29.67..................... 0.00................... 0.00%
29.96................... 29.10................... 9.70%
30.00................... 33.00................. 12.30%
35.00................... 33.00................. 12.30%
40.00................... 33.00................. 12.30%
45.00................... 33.00................. 12.30%
 
GILD:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-tops-q1-earnings-estimates-142002600.html

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...g-too-many-opnions/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GILD+Key+Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gild

Trade:
With GILD at 105.01
Jan 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
Yield = 33/467 = 7.1% in 256 days or 10% annualized
Prob = 97%
Expectation = .97(33) - .01(467) - .02(234) = 32.0 - 4.7 - 4.7 = 22.6

Price............... Profit / Loss............ ROM %
50.00................ (467.00)................ -93.40%
60.00................ (467.00)................ -93.40%
65.00................ (467.00)................ -93.40%
69.67..................... 0.00.................... 0.00%
70.00................... 33.00.................... 7.10%
80.00................... 33.00.................... 7.10%
90.00................... 33.00.................... 7.10%
100.00................. 33.00.................... 7.10%
110.00................. 33.00.................... 7.10%
 
TSLA:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-shares-up-2-after-narrower-q1-loss-2015-05-06?siteid=yhoof2

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-posts-wider-1st-qtr-204809335.html

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...rter-earnings-beat/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TSLA+Interactive#symbol=TSLA;range=2y

Trade:
With TSLA at 230.43
Jan 125/120 bull put spread for a net credit of $33
Yield = 33/467 = 7% in 254 days or 10.2% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(33) - .07(467) -.01(234) = 30.3 - 32.1 - 2.3 = -4.1
i.e. zero

Price................. Profit / Loss........... ROM %
90.00.................. (467.00)................. -93.40%
120.00................ (467.00)................. -93.40%
124.67..................... 0.00..................... 0.00%
125.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00%
130.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00%
150.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00%
200.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00%
250.00.................... 33.00..................... 7.00%
 
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XLU:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XLU+Interactive#{"range":"5y"}

Trade:
With XLU at 43.72
Jan '17 33/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/265 = 13.2% in 623 days or 7.7% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(35) - .05(265) - .06(133) = 31.15 - 13.25 - 7.98 = 9.92

Price............ Profit / Loss........... ROM %
22.50................ (265.00).................. -88.33%
28.67................ (265.00).................. -88.33%
30.00................ (265.00).................. -88.33%
32.65..................... 0.00...................... 0.00%
33.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20%
35.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20%
40.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20%
45.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20%
50.00.................... 35.00.................... 13.20%

an 'income' trade
 
HON:

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/174185/honeywell-cockpit-technologies-for-indias-indigo-airline

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/171146/honeywell-hon-beats-on-q1-earnings-revenues-down-yy

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.HON.NYS?symbol=HON&form=PRFIEQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HON+Interactive#{"range":"2y"}

Trade:
With HON at 102.69
Jan 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $42
Yield = 42/458 = 9.2% in 249 days or 13.4% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(42) - .04(458) - .05(229) = 38.2 - 18.3 - 11.4 = 8.5

Price ................Profit / Loss ..........ROM %
60.00 ...................(458.00).............. -91.60%
75.00 ...................(458.00).............. -91.60%
80.00 ...................(458.00) ..............-91.60%
84.58 ........................0.00.................. 0.00%
85.00 ......................42.00.................. 9.20%
90.00 ......................42.00.................. 9.20%
100.00 ....................42.00.................. 9.20%
115.00 ....................42.00.................. 9.20%
125.00 ....................42.00.................. 9.20%
 
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XOM:
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/173078/exxonmobil-xom-beats-on-q1-earnings-amp-revenues
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-recommendations-exxonmobil-1q15-150633190.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-...onsider-buying-now-2015-05-12?link=MW_popular
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=XOM+Key+Statistics
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.XOM.NYS?symbol=XOM&form=PRFIEQ
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XOM+Interactive#{"range":"2y"}
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Trade:
With XOM at 86.69
Oct 75/70 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 156 days or 20.3% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(40) - .03(460) - .07(230) = 36 - 13.8 - 16.1 = 6.1

Price................. Profit / Loss............ ROM %
50.00 ....................(460.00) ...............-92.00%
60.00 ....................(460.00) ...............-92.00%
70.00 ....................(460.00)............... -92.00%
74.51 ........................(9.40) .................-1.88%
74.60 .........................0.00 ....................0.00%
75.00 .......................40.00 ....................8.70%
85.00....................... 40.00 ....................8.70%
95.00 .......................40.00 ....................8.70%
100.00 .....................40.00 ....................8.70%
 
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DDS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dillards-dds-crumbles-stock-falls-125712025.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DDS.NYS?symbol=DDS&form=PRFIEQ

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dds

Trade:
With DDS at 115.48
Jan '16 140/145 bear call spread for a net credit of $55
Yield = 55/445 = 12.4% in 240 days or 18.8% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(55) - .09(445) - .04(223) = 47.8 - 40.0 - 8.9 = -1
Price.............. Profit / Loss.......... ROM %
85.00................. 55.00................... 12.40%
105.00............... 55.00................... 12.40%
125.00............... 55.00................... 12.40%
140.00............... 55.00................... 12.40%
140.55................. 0.00..................... 0.00%
143.01............ (246.20)................. -49.24%
145.00............ (445.00)................. -89.00%
165.00............ (445.00)................. -89.00%
180.00............ (445.00)................. -89.00%
 
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TIP:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indicators-point-firming-inflationary-conditions-141639118.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TIP+Interactive#{"range":"2y"}

Trade:
with TIP at 112.55
Dec 108/103 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 214 days or 23.2% annualized
Prob = 83%
Expectation = .83(60) - .02(440) - .15(220) = 49.8 - 8.8 - 33.0 = 8.0

Price.............. Profit / Loss............ ROM %
75.00................. (440.00)............... -88.00%
90.00................. (440.00)............... -88.00%
100.00............... (440.00)............... -88.00%
103.00............... (440.00)............... -88.00%
107.40.................... 0.00................... 0.00%
108.00................... 60.00................. 13.60%
115.00................... 60.00................. 13.60%
125.00................... 60.00................. 13.60%
135.00................... 60.00................. 13.60%
 
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