Conservative Options Trades

SYK:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stryker-raised-strong-buy-180008352.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stryker-flexes-medtech-muscles-153300878.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SYK+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=SYK

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=SYK&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:
With SYK at 80.86
Jan 60/55 bull put spread for a net credit of $32
Yield = 32/468 = 6.8% in 299 days or 8.3% annualized
Prob = 97%
Expectation = .97(32) - .01(468) - .02(234) = 31.04 - 4.68 - 4.68 = 21.68

Price......................................Profit / Loss...............................ROI %
45.00........................................ (468.00).............................. -93.60%
50.00........................................ (468.00)............................... -93.60%
55.00........................................ (468.00)............................... -93.60%
59.68................................................ 0.00..................................... 0.00%
60.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80%
65.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80%
70.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80%
75.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80%
80.00.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80%
80.86.............................................. 32.00.................................... 6.80%
100.00 .......................................... 32.00.................................... 6.80%
 
MTN:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MTN+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MTN&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With MTN at 72.39
Jul 72.50/70 bear put spread for a net debit of 1.00


Price..................................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
55.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00%
60.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00%
65.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00%
70.00...................................... 150.00........................ 150.00%
71.50............................................ 0.00.............................. 0.00%
72.50.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00%
75.00.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00%
80.00.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00%
90.00.................................... (100.00)..................... -100.00%
 
AGCO:

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/127411/agco-slips-to-strong-sell
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/earnings-beat-agco-shares-fall-142003944.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/farm-machinery-maker-agcos-profit-151524758.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AGCO+Key+Statistics
http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=AGCO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=agco
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AGCO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With AGCO at 52.99
Aug 60/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 144 days or 28% annualized
Prob = 84%
Expectation = .84(50) - .06(450) - .1(225) = 42 - 27 - 22 = -7


Price............................Profit / Loss.....................ROI %
45.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10%
50.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10%
55.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10%
60.00................................. 50.00......................... 11.10%
60.50..................................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
64.48.............................. (397.90).................... -79.58%
65.00.............................. (450.00).................... -90.00%
70.00.............................. (450.00).................... -90.00%
75.00.............................. (450.00).................... -90.00%
 
NPO:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enpro-downgraded-strong-sell-214504979.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NPO+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=NPO+Competitors

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1223...ouble-digit-gains.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enpro-misses-q3-earnings-revs-134005858.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielf...k-bankruptcy-to-125-million/?partner=yahootix

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielf...-but-it-sure-smells-like-it/?partner=yahootix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/enpro-industries-reports-results-fourth-123000811.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NPO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NPO&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With NPO at 72.85
Sept 90/95 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 177 days or 20.4% annualized
Prob = 85%
Expectation = .85(45) - .1(455) - .05(278) = 38.25 - 45.50 - 13.9 = -21.15


Price......................Profit / Loss..................ROI %
60.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90%
65.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90%
72.85.........................45.00............................9.90%
80.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90%
90.00........................ 45.00........................... 9.90%
90.45............................ 0.00........................... 0.00%
92.85..................... (239.60).................... -47.92%
95.00..................... (455.00).................... -91.00%
105.00.................. (455.00).................... -91.00%
120.00.................. (455.00).................... -91.00%

Alternate trade:

June 80/85 bear call spread for a net credit of $50
Yield = 50/450 = 11.11% in 86 days or 47% annualized
Prob = 74%
Expectation = .76(50) - .15(450) - .09(225) = 38 - 67.5 - 20.25 = -50
 
CBS:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cbs

Trade:
With CBS at 61.96
April 65/60 bear put spread for a net debit of $290
Yield = 210/290 = 72% if CBS < 62.10 at expiration


Price...........................Profit / Loss.........................ROI %
45.00............................ 210.00 ...............................72.41%
50.00............................ 210.00............................... 72.41%
55.00............................ 210.00............................... 72.41%
60.00............................ 210.00............................... 72.41%
62.10................................... 0.00................................. 0.00%
65.00 ............................(290.00)....................... -100.00%
70.00............................ (290.00)....................... -100.00%
75.00............................ (290.00)....................... -100.00%
80.00............................ (290.00)....................... -100.00%
 
Trade:

RSX: (see above)

With RSX at 22.97

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RSX

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

Aug 25/20 bear put spread for a net debit of $240
Yield = 240/260 = 92% in 141 days or 238% annualized


Price.........................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
15.00............................ 260.00........................ 108.33%
20.00............................ 260.00......................... 108.33%
21.40............................. 119.80.......................... 49.92%
22.60................................... 0.00............................. 0.00%
24.68............................. (208.40)..................... -86.83%
25.00............................. (240.00)..................... -100.00%
27.97............................. (240.00)..................... -100.00%
31.25............................. (240.00)..................... -100.00%
 
pope-obama.jpg


A woman and a duck walk into a bar.

The bartender says, "Where'd you get the pig."

The woman says, "That's not a pig, that's a duck."

He says, "I was talking to the duck."
 
TLT:
With TLT at 109.37
z


http://seekingalpha.com/article/2115603-the-top-7-reasons-to-buy-treasuries-part-2

Trade:

Jan '15 90/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $23
Yield = 23/477 = 4.8% in 294 days or 6.0% annualized
Prob = 98%
Expectation = .98(23) - .01(477) - .01(238) = 22.5 - 4.8 - 2.4 = 15.3


Price.........................Profit / Loss......................ROI %
75.00......................... (477.00)........................ -95.40%
80.00......................... (477.00)........................ -95.40%
85.00......................... (477.00)........................ -95.40%
89.77................................. 0.00.............................. 0.00%
90.00.............................. 23.00.............................. 4.80%
95.00.............................. 23.00.............................. 4.80%
100.00........................... 23.00.............................. 4.80%
105.00........................... 23.00.............................. 4.80%
110.00........................... 23.00.............................. 4.60%
 
GM:

z


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-adding-971-000-vehicles-224322710.html

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/major-events-gms-recall-16-million-cars-23097385?page=2

http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/03/gm-recall-mary-barra-hearing/359670/

With GM at 34.73
Trade #1:
Sept 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $151
Yield = 151/349 = 43% in 174 days or 91% annualized
Prob = 55%
Expectation = .55(151) - .22(349) - .23(174) = 83.1 - 76.8 - 40.0 = -33.7

Trade # 2
Sept 35/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $360
Yield = 140/360 = 39% in 174 days or 82% annualized
Prob = 55%
Expectation = .55(140) - .22(360) - .23(180) = 77 - 79.2 - 41.4 = -43.6


Price...........................Trade #1....................Trade #2
25.00........................... 151.00.........................140.00
30.00........................... 151.00.........................140.00
35.00........................... 151.00.........................140.00
35.48........................... 102.70.............................91.70
36.40................................20.00................................0.00
36.51................................. 0.00.............................(20.00)
40.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00)
45.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00)
50.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00)
55.00.......................... (349.00)........................(360.00)

The two spreads are very alike in final outcome.
 
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