Conservative Options Trades

Ukraine and Crimea :

Tomorrow's open may well be down because of Putin's sabre rattling over the Ukraine. I believe this will be short lived so I don't plan to do anything. Since the market is so overbought it could trigger a decline with the Ukraine as an excuse... just to let a little air out of the bubble.

I find Putin's statement that he needs to exert control over events in the Ukraine in order to protect Russians and 'Russian speakers' living there a bit worrisome... he could say the same about New York city which seems to have more Russians than the Crimea.

:-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea

http://stream.wsj.com/story/deadly-clashes-in-ukraine/SS-2-457850/

It's interesting to review the current situation and compare it to Obama's recent threat to bomb Syria in order to protect US interests there... and especially to review Putin's op-ed in the NY Times in that instance:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-putins-new-york-times-op-ed-lets-revisit-it/

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?hp&_r=2&

I was in Kiev in the sixties and found it a singularly unpleasant place... mostly because it was full of people who looked like Putin:

Russia_Ukraine-043f0.jpg
 
oldnemesis said:
ACAT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-arctic-cat-acat-060023711.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...obile-maker-arctic-cat-inc-stock-plunged.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACAT+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ACAT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lq9ayTSJorQ

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACAT&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACAT&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with ACAT at 44.85
Jun 45/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $185
Potential Yield = 315/185 = 170% in 115 days


Price....................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
30.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
35.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
40.00..................... 315.00...................... 170.27%
40.34..................... 280.90...................... 151.84%
43.15........................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
45.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
50.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
55.00.................... (185.00)................... -100.00%
More...

Update:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=acat
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zacks-rank-5-additions-tuesday-130954122.html
New Trade:
with ACAT at 47.45
Sept 45/40 bear put spread for a net debit of $150
Potential Yield = 350/150 = 230% in 199 days



Price................................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
30.00................................. 350.00............................... 233.33%
35.00................................. 350.00............................... 233.33%
40.00................................. 350.00............................... 233.33%
41.41.................................. 209.10............................... 139.40%
43.50.......................................... 0.00................................... 0.00%
45.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00%
50.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00%
55.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00%
60.00.................................. (150.00).......................... -100.00%
 
GTLS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-chart-industries-gtls-060028281.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GTLS+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GTLS&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with GTLS at 85.56
Sept 110/115 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.89% in 198 days or 18.2% annualized
Prob = 86.8%
Expectation = .868(45) - .097(455) - .035(228) = 39.1 - 44.2 - 8.0 = -13.1


Price......................Profit / Loss..........................ROI %
85.00............................ 45.00................................. 9.89%
90.00............................ 45.00................................. 9.89%
95.00............................ 45.00................................. 9.89%
110.00......................... 45.00................................. 9.89%
110.45............................ 0.00.................................. 0.00%
111.60..................... (114.60)........................... -22.92%
115.00..................... (455.00)........................... -91.00%
125.00..................... (455.00)........................... -91.00%
130.00..................... (455.00)........................... -91.00%
 
Ukraine:

Here is an excellent review of events over the past few days from the London Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10669670/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html

If you get fish and chips on the street in London they put it in a rolled up Telegraph.

Here are some photos of Kiev in the '60s. A horrible place then and now. I think it has the worlds longest winter outside of the Artic.

1cb3cd5a9f.jpg
f5ecd738bf.jpg

ba3275c539.jpg
4a38fb4b71.jpg


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/uk...oy-your-portfolio-2014-03-05?dist=lbeforebell
 
RSH: Dinosaur Trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-radioshack-run-out-of-things-to-sell-2014-03-06?dist=lcountdown

Goldman lowered RadioShack's price target to $1 from $2.25 based on a higher probability of default over the next three years by the CDS market, which is now about 80%. Shares are Sell rated.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Trade:

Oct 3/5 bear call spread for a net credit of $10
Yield = 10/190 = 5.3% in 225 days or 8.5% annualized
Prob = 82%
Expectation = .82(10) - .06(190) - .12(95) = 8.2 - 11.4 - 11.4 = -14.6

Price.......................Profit / Loss................ROI %
1.51............................ 10.00......................... 5.30%
2.42............................ 10.00......................... 5.30%
3.00............................ 10.00......................... 5.30%
3.10............................... 0.00......................... 0.00%
3.38............................ (27.80)................. -13.90%
4.34.......................... (123.50)................. -61.75%
5.00.......................... (190.00)................. -95.00%
5.29........................... (190.00)............... -95.00%
6.25........................... (190.00)............... -95.00%
 
DFE:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DFE&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=DFE&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=SPY&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DFE+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DFE+Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-signs-were-near-a-market-top-and-what-to-do-now-2014-03-07

http://www.expatica.com/fr/news/fre...er-close-watch-over-high-deficits_286844.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...et-deficit-to-widen-in-2015-without-more-cuts

Trade:
With DFE at 63.22
Aug 63/65 bear call spread for a net credit of $100
Yield = 100/100 = 100% in 160 days or 228% annualized
Prob = 51%

Price..............................Profit / Loss................ROI %
50.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00%
55.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00%
60.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00%
63.00............................... 100.00....................... 50.00%
64.00...................................... 0.00......................... 0.00%
65.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00%
70.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00%
75.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00%
80.00............................... (100.00).................. -50.00%

A hundred dollars on red.

:-)

220px-Roulette_-_detail.jpg
 
UNG:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/06/w...a-for-natural-gas.html?hpw&rref=business&_r=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNG+Basic+Chart

Trade:
With UNG at 25.55
Jan '15 18/15 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/275 = 9.1% in 314 days or 10.6% annualized
Prob = 85%

Price........................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
12.00......................... (275.00)...................... -91.67%
15.00......................... (275.00)...................... -91.67%
15.22......................... (253.00)...................... -84.33%
17.75.................................. 0.00............................ 0.00%
18.00............................... 25.00............................ 9.10%
20.00............................... 25.00............................ 9.10%
25.00............................... 25.00............................ 9.10%
30.00.............................. 25.00............................. 9.10%
 
WTW:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-weight-watchers-wtw-050021066.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...fit-forecast-trails-estimates.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1252...till-a-heavy-sell.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1236...eting-aftermarket.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WTW+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WTW&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With WTW at 20.46
Jan'15 35/37.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/225 = 11.1% in 312 days or 13% annualized
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(25) - .05(225) - .02(113) = 23.25 - 11.25 - 2.26 = 9.7


Price...........................Profit / Loss......................ROI%
20.00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11%
25,00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11%
30.00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11%
35.00................................. 25.00......................... 11.11%
35.25.................................... 0.00............................ 0.00%
37.50............................. (225.00)...................... -90.00%
40.51............................. (225.00)...................... -90.00%
46.88............................. (225.00)...................... -90.00%
 
TSLA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TSLA&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...s-pointing-to-netflix-tesla-bitcoin-and-more/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA+Key+Statistics

Trade:

Jan'15 300/305 bear call spread for a net credit of $100
Yield = 100/400 = 25% in 312 days or 29.2% annualized
Prob = 75%


Price........................Profit / Loss.......................ROI %
225.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00%
250.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00%
275.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00%
300.00......................... 100.00........................... 25.00%
301.00............................... 0.00............................. 0.00%
305.00........................ (400.00)...................... -80.00%
320.00........................ (400.00)...................... -80.00%
340.00........................ (400.00)...................... -80.00%
 
NILE:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-blue-nile-nile-050020381.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NILE+Profile

http://www.bluenile.com/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blue-nile-announces-fourth-quarter-123000714.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NILE+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=nile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NILE&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With NILE at 36.13
Aug 45/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 157 days or 23% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(45) - .054(455) - .076(228) = 39.2 - 24.6 - 17.3 = -2.7


Price.........................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
30.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90%
35.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90%
40.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90%
45.00............................... 45.00............................ 9.90%
45.45.................................. 0.00............................ 0.00%
48.20........................... (274.60)..................... -54.92%
50.00........................... (455.00)..................... -91.00%
55.00........................... (455.00)..................... -91.00%
60.00........................... (455.00)...................... -91.00%

Alternate Trade:

Aug 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $72
Yield = 72/428 = 16.8% in 157 days or 39.1% annualized
Prob = 78%
Expectation = .78(72) - .05(428) - .17(214) = 56.2 - 21.4 - 36.2 = -1.4


Price.........................Profit / Loss........................ROI %
18.00............................ (428.00)...................... -85.60%
20.00............................ (428.00)...................... -85.60%
25.00............................ (428.00)...................... -85.60%
29.15............................ (12.50)........................... -2.50%
29.28................................. 0.00............................... 0.00%
30.00............................... 72.00............................ 16.80%
35.00............................... 72.00............................ 16.80%
40.00............................... 72.00............................ 16.80%
45.00.............................. 72.00............................. 16.80%
 
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