Conservative Options Trades

MRK:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck...;_ylg=X3oDMTBhYWM1a2sxBGxhbmcDZW4tVVM-;_ylv=3

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MRK+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=MRK+Competitors

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mrk

MRK pays a 3.3% dividend

Trade:
With MRK at 53.53
Jan '15 40/35 bull put spread for a net credit of $41
Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 345 days or 9.4% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(41) - .02(459) - .06(230)= 37.7 - 9.2 - 13.8 = 14.7
 
GLW:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/corning-announces-fourth-quarter-full-121201791.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gorilla-glass-maker-corning-says-130901479.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/corning-hit-gorilla-glass-woes-204005276.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...cialty-materials-businesses/?partner=yahootix

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...-is-still-not-corning-incorporateds-frie.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GLW+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=GLW&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLW&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With GLW at 17.55
Aug '14 20/25 bear call spread for a net credit of $36
Yield = 36/464 = 7.76% in 190 days or 14.9% annualized
Prob = 77.2%
Expectation = .772(36) - .03(464) - .2(232) = 27.8 - 13.9 -46.4 = -32.5


Price............................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
15.00............................. 36.00.............................. 7.76%
18.00............................. 36.00............................. 7.76%
20.00............................. 36.00............................. 7.76%
20.29................................ 7.20............................. 1.44%
20.36................................. 0.00............................ 0.00%
23.94............................ (358.20)................... -71.64%
25.00............................ (464.00)................... -92.80%
27.50............................ (464.00)................... -92.80%
30.00............................ (464.00)................... -92.80%

Also viable:

Jan '15 12/10 bull put spread for a net credit of $15
Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 344 days or 8.6% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(15) - .02(185) - .07(92) = 13.6 - 3.7 - 6.44 = 3.5
 
K:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-beats-q4-earnings-revs-193009465.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-returns-profit-4q-revenue-132711595.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kellogg-cereals-struggle-keep-spot-165807931.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=K+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=K

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=K&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=K&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With K at 57,74
Jan '15 45/40 bull put spread for a net credit of $38
Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 345 days or 8.7% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(38) - .03(462) - .07(231) = 34.2 - 13.9 - 16.2 = 4.1


Price................................Profit / Loss.....................ROI %
30.00.................................. (462.00)..................... -92.40%
35.00.................................. (462.00)..................... -92.40%
40.00.................................. (462.00)..................... -92.40%
44.62.......................................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
45.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20%
50.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20%
55.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20%
60.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20%
65.00........................................ 38.00.......................... 8.20%
 
VXX/SPY:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPY&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=vxx

Trade:
with VXX at 48.51
Feb 48/53 bull call spread for a net debit of $190


Price................................Profit / Loss...................ROI %
36.00................................. (190.00)................... -100.00%
41.00................................. (190.00)................... -100.00%
47.00................................. (190.00)................... -100.00%
48.00.................................. (190.00).................. -100.00%
49.90........................................... 0.00........................... 0.00%
53.00..................................... 310.00..................... 163.16%
54.00..................................... 310.00..................... 163.16%
60.00..................................... 310.00...................... 163.16%
65.00...................................... 310.00..................... 163.16%

or

with spy at 177.48
Feb 175/170 bear put spread for a net debit of $190


Price..................Profit / Loss............ROI %
125.00................ 310.00................. 163.16%
145.00................ 310.00................. 163.16%
165.00................ 310.00................. 163.16%
170.00................ 310.00................. 163.16%
173.10...................... 0.00....................... 0.00%
175.00................ (190.00)............ -100.00%
180.00................ (190.00)............ -100.00%
200.00................ (190.00)............ -100.00%
220.00................ (190.00)............. -100.00%
 
TEVA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teva-beats-q4-earnings-revs-131004683.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TEVA+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=TEVA

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=teva

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TEVA&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with TEVA at 44.69
Sept 35/31 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/365 = 9.6% in 224 days or 15.6% annualized
Prob = 83%
Expectation = .83(35) - .07(365) - .1(182) = 29.1 - 25.55 - 18.2 = -15


Price.............................Profit / Loss...................ROi %
23.25.............................. (365.00) ...................-91.25%
29.51.............................. (365.00)................... -91.25%
31.00.............................. (365.00)................... -91.25%
34.65...................................... 0.00......................... 0.00%
35.00.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60%
36.10.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60%
42.69.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60%
49.27.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60%
55.86.................................... 35.00........................ 9.60%
 
COST:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-comps-surpass-expectations-215503090.html

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...vs-costco-do-lower-prices-trump-employee.aspx

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...s-walmart-federal-minimum-wage-obama/5029211/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=COST+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=COST+Competitors

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=cost

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=COST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=COST&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=COST&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

Jan '15 85.5/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/515 = 6.8% in 341 days or 7.3% annualized
(cost pays a dividend of 1.1% annualized)
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(35) - .03(515) - .04(258) = 32.55 - 15.45 - 10.32 = 6.8


Price....................Profit / Loss.....................ROI %
60.00...................... (515.00)..................... -93.64%
75.00...................... (515.00)..................... -93.64%
80.00...................... (515.00)..................... -93.64%
85.15.............................. 0.00........................... 0.00%
85.50............................ 35.00.......................... 6.80%
90.00............................ 35.00.......................... 6.80%
100.00......................... 35.00.......................... 6.80%
125.00......................... 35.00.......................... 6.80%
150.00......................... 35.00.......................... 6.80%
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-stocks-to-beat-a-declining-market-2014-02-07?pagenumber=1

................................Hulbert's Quality Stocks...............................
Stock..........................P/E.......................Beta.........................Chart
AFL..............................9.57....................1.78............................ .X
ALL............................10.97....................1.15..............................X
WFC.........................11.66....................0.86..............................X
BNS...........................10.66....................0.94..............................X
RY...............................11.23....................1.14.............................X
AAPL.........................12.92....................0.73............................X
CSCO.........................12.33...................1.13............................X
T.......................................9.53....................0.33............................X
CVX.............................10.10....................1.11...........................X
IBM..............................11.86....................0.67...........................X

A good place to fish for trades


e.g.
T
Oct 27/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/175 = 14.3% in 250 days or 20.8% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(25) - .03(175) - .07(87.5) = 22.5 - 5.25 - 6.12 = 11.13
 
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