Conservative Options Trades

CPB:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-reports-lackluster-q1-results-184155088.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1211...canned-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kicking-campbell-hit-fresh-food-152444085.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

With CPB at 39.20:

Trade #1:

Jan 2015 50/45 Bear Call Spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 424 days or 8.5% annualized

Trade #2:

Jan 2015 40/35 Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $310
Yield = $190/ 310 = 61% in 424 days or 52.7% annualized

Trade #3

Jan 2015 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $120
Yield = 120/380 = 31.6% in 424 days or 27.2% annualized

.........................................P/L.........................................
Price..............Trade #1..................Trade #2........Trade #3
30.....................$45.........................$190..............($380)
35.....................$45.........................$190..............$120
36.90.................$45..........................$0.0..............$120
40.....................$45.........................($310)............$120
45.....................$45.........................($310)............$120
45.45................$0.0.........................($310)............$120
50....................($455)......................($310)............$120
55....................($455)......................($310)............$120
 
Quote from oldnemesis:

CPB:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-reports-lackluster-q1-results-184155088.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1211...canned-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kicking-campbell-hit-fresh-food-152444085.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

With CPB at 41.81:

Trade #1:

Jan 2015 50/45 Bear Call Spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 424 days or 8.5% annualized

Trade #2:

Jan 2015 40/35 Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $310
Yield = $190/ 310 = 61% in 424 days or 52.7% annualized

.........................P/L.................................
Price..............Trade #1..................Trade #2
30.....................$45.........................$190
35.....................$45.........................$190
36.90.................$45..........................$0.0
40.....................$45.........................($310)
45.....................$45.........................($310)
45.45................$0.0.........................($310)
50....................($455)......................($310)
55....................($455)......................($310)
More...

Shares opened today at 39.50. Did you travel to the past?
 
CPB:

Try it again:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-reports-lackluster-q1-results-184155088.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1211...canned-on-tuesday.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kicking-campbell-hit-fresh-food-152444085.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB+Basic+Chart&t=5d

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

With CPB at 39.20 (close):

Trade #1:

Jan 2015 50/45 Bear Call Spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 424 days or 8.5% annualized

Trade #2:

Jan 2015 40/35 Bear Put Spread for a net debit of $255
Yield = $245/255 = 96% in 424 days or 82.7% annualized

Trade #3

Jan 2015 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $115
Yield = 120/380 = 31.6% in 424 days or 27.2% annualized

.........................................P/L.........................................
Price..............Trade #1..................Trade #2........Trade #3....Prob>
30.....................$45.........................$245..............($385)......89%
33.85.................$45.........................$245...............$0.0.......74%
35.....................$45.........................$245..............$115........69%
37.45.................$45..........................$0.0..............$115.......57%
40.....................$45.........................($255)............$115.......54%
45.....................$45.........................($255)............$115.......23%
45.45................$0.0.........................($255)............$115.......22%
50....................($455)......................($255)............$115.......11%
55....................($455)......................($255)............$115........4%

:-)

(optionsOracle tables were not updated...this data is from OptionsXpress)
 
CPB and Camden NJ:

Campbell Soup is located in Camden NJ.

Camden, across the Delaware river from Philadelphia, is the nation's most poignant example of urban decay, having been ranked #1 in violent crime per capita.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camden,_New_Jersey

https://www.google.com/search?q=cam...=X&ei=9LGMUscNzc2RB_DggPgE&sqi=2&ved=0CDkQsAQ

A number of years ago, working in Philadelphia, I became disillusioned with corporate culture and took a job as VP of Information Systems at....Camden County College deep inside Camden NJ.

As part of my job I had to teach several classes in data processing.

It was an eye opening experience. The daily walk from the college building to my car was always frightening and one never stayed late.
 
BJRI:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-bjs-restaurants-bjri-055026191.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bjs-misses-earnings-rev-estimates-154002455.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BJRI+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=BJRI&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BJRI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

With BJRI at 28.16

Jan '14 30/25 bear put spread for a net debit of 2.25

Price.........................P/L
15.00 .................... $275.00
20.00 .....................$275.00
25.00 .....................$275.00
26.14 .....................$161.40
27.75 .........................$0.00
28.16 .......................(47.00)
29.92 .....................($217.40)
30.00 .....................($225.00)
35.00 .....................($225.00)
40.00 .....................($225.00)
 
PTM:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-etfs-play-platinums-coming-202430720.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PTM&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With PTM at 15.59

May '14 14/18 bull call spread for a net debit of $180

Price.............P/L.....................%
10.50 ........($180.00)....... -100.00%
12.80 ........($180..00).......-100.00%
14.00 ........($180.00)....... -100.00%
15.23 ..........($57.30)......... -31.83%
15.80 ...........$0.00............... 0.00%
17.65 ........$185.20........... 102.89%
18.00 ........$220.00........... 122.22%
20.00 ........$220.00........... 122.22%
22.00 ........$220.00........... 122.22%
 
IBM:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1854751-ibm-cant-get-blood-out-of-a-stone?source=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=IBM+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=IBM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=IBM&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

With IBM at 184.13

Jan '15 215/220 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 420 days or 11.8% annualized



Price.............P/L...........%..............Prob >
138.10....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........97%
164.37....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........78%
192.03....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........40%
215.00....... 60.00...... 12.00% .........15%
215.60........ 0.00......... 0.00% .........13%
219.69..... (408.60).... -81.72% ........12%
220.00..... (440.00).... -88.00% ........11%
230.00..... (440.00).... -88.00% ..........6%
240.00..... (440.00).... -88.00% ..........4%
 
SHLD:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sears-3q-loss-widens-sales-112240783.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SHLD+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=shld

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SHLD&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With SHLD at 61.34
Jan '15 75/80 bear call spread for a net credit of $110
Yield = 110/390 = 28% in 420 days or 24.5% annualized
Prob = 73%
Expectation = .73(110) - .22(390) - .05(195) = 80.3 - 85.8 - 9.75 = -15

Price..........Profit / Loss.......... %
45.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00%
55.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00%
65.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00%
75.00 ...........110.00 ........28.00%
76.10 ..............0.00 ..........0.00%
78.18 ...........(208.40) ....-41.68%
80.00 ...........(390.00) ....-78.00%
85.00 ...........(390.00) ....-78.00%
90.00........... (390.00) ....-78.00%
 
INTC:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-shares-drop-2014-forecast-201743746.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...ement-over-big-plans-2013-11-22?siteid=yhoof2

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=intc

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INTC+Basic+Chart&t=2y

Trade:
With INTC at 23.87

April '14 26/28 bear call spread for a net credit of $27

Yield = 27/173 = 15.6% in 147 days or 38.8% annualized

Prob = 78%

Price..........Profit / Loss............ %
17.90 ............27.00 .............15.60%
21.18 ............27.00 .............15.60%
24.64 ............27.00 .............15.60%
26.00 ............27.00 .............15.60%
26.27 ..............0.00 ...............0.00%
28.00 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50%
28.09 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50%
31.55 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50%
35.00 ...........(173.00) .........-86.50%
 
I am very impressed by your thread, your patience and the uniqueness of your method. If I could ask, what methods do you use to search for such spreads? How do you calculate the expected values and how do you get the probs? If you have an example that goes over the steps of the numbers it would help. For instance what is the .05(195) in: Expectation = .73(110) - .22(390) - .05(195). Thanks.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top