Conservative Options Trades

[oldnemesis]

CAT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/caterpillar-2q-profit-falls-43-122721848.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-caterpillar-cat-045516247.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CAT+Basic+Chart

Trade:
with CAT at 82.06
Jan '14 92.5/97.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $62
Yield = 62/438 = 14.2% in 173 days or 29.9% annualized
Prob = 88%
Expectation = .88(62) - .096(438) - .02(219) = 54.6 - 42.0 - 4.4 = 8.2

 

[oldnemesis]

CAT trade filled at .75 which raises the expectation.

 

[oldnemesis]

SSO:

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/SubmissionsArticle.aspx?submissionid=179815.xml

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-overvalued-or-not-2013-10-24

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SSO&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with SSO at 92.32
Mar 93/90 bear put spread for a net debit of $170

Price...................P/L
85.....................130
90.....................130
91.30..................0
93.....................(170)
95.....................(170)

 

[oldnemesis]

NS:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/energys...r-buying-and-10-16-yield-ns/?partner=yahootix

http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...little-piggy-banks-of-the-next-energy-re.aspx

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=NS

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NS&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With NS at 44.90
June 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $75

Yield = 75/425 = 17.6% in 231 days or 27.9% annualized
Prob = 74%

 

[oldnemesis]

ENZL:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-...-safer-than-treasurys-2013-10-09?pagenumber=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ENZL+Basic+Chart

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ENZL+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=TLT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=ENZL&ql=1&c=^GSPC

Trade:
Selling put to acquire ENZL for 36.55
With ENZL at 39.47
Short Apr 37 put for net credit of $45
Yield = 45/3655 = 1.2% in 168 days or 2.7% annualized
ENZL pays 4.3% annualized

 

[oldnemesis]

EWA:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-...-safer-than-treasurys-2013-10-09?pagenumber=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=EWA+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=EWA&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EWA&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

With EWA at 26.65

Jan '15 20/15 bull put spread for a net credit of $35
Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 440 days or 6.2% annualized
Prob = 92%
EWA pays a 5.68% dividend

 

[oldnemesis]

FCX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-beats-estimates-profit-down-170245059.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reaffirming-freeport-mcmoran-neutral-230503111.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FCX+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=fcx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=CU&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=gld&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=FCX&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With FCX at 36.78
May 30/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $27
Yield = 27/473 = 5.7% in 192 days or 10.9% annualized
Prob = 88.5%
Expectation = .885(27) - .05(473) - .07(236) = 23.9 - 23.6 - 16.5 = -16

FCX pays a 3.4% annualized dividend.

 

[oldnemesis]

PVG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=PVG+Profile

http://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/PVG

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PVG

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PVG+Basic+Chart

Trade:
With PVG at 3.28
Mar 2.50/5.00 bull call spread for a net debit of $90
Yield = 160/90 = 178% in 137 days
Prob=??
Expectation = ??

(a companion trade to the FCX trade above)

 

[oldnemesis]

MOS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mosaic-misses-earnings-revs-profit-202504371.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MOS+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=mos

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MOS

Trade:
With MOS at 46.73
Dec 52.50/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $24
Yield = 24/226 = 10.6% in 46 days or 84% annualized
Prob = 80%

 

[oldnemesis]

AZZ:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-azz-inc-azz-055519035.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/azz-incorporated-reports-death-mr-200100538.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/azz-misses-q2-earnings-sales-143003250.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AZZ+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AZZ+Competitors

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AZZ&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Feb 50/55 bear call spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 108 days or 29.4% annualized
Prob = 82%