Conservative Options Trades

Quote from oldnemesis:

Why is it I don't know what the hell anybody is talking about??

What is a 'mid option' ?

Any trading in this stage of the market is 'late'... everybody knows that... so what???

I haven't done any real trades in two weeks.

What the hell do I care about Rothchild and what has he got to do with option trading?? NOTHING.

I usually keep everybody on ignore so I don't have to listen to this 'how clever I am' drivel... which I will go back to doing.

If you have so much to say start a thread and show us your trades.

Otherwise, for christ's sake SHUT UP.
More...
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You seem to have some kind of proprietary, dog like marking nastiness that caught me by surprise.(but quite used to it in my 40 years of custom home building and dealing with idiots like you ) Your "SHUT UP" tantrum tells me a lot
and especially when you threaten to put everyone on ignore
WHAT A JOKe
I never get into a pissing contest but now a first and last here

MY option trading started in 1988 and posting wouldn't be any help
to anyone at this time.
MY STOCK TRADING STARTED WHEN YOU WERE WETTING YOURSELF(i know how old you are from your posting on
http://investorsforum.proboards.com/index.cgi)
I aways thought you were treated unfairly in your earlier posts but i was
wrong.
I won't explain my response when i said "mid" in my previous post
because... i think when you worked at ROHM &HASS in Phia. i think some of those chemicals made you the JERK OFF you are now( SOUTH PHILLY speak" jerk off")

CHEERS (you may have the last word if you wish)
john
 
Giving me the last word??

Good....... here it is:

GO AWAY.............GET OFF MY THREAD..............GO AWAY.......

I am not interested in amiable (or unamiable) chatter... I use this thread to track trades.... why can't I have a simple thread with just my trades on it???

I don't bother anybody (now that PM is gone) LEAVE ME ALONE.

If you want to chat with somebody chat with somebody else.

I REPEAT:

SHUT UP.

GO AWAY.............GET OFF MY THREAD..............GO AWAY.......
 
WMT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-profit-despite-sales-111104667.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/b...-mixed-results.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=WMT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Trade:

With WMT at 79.86:

Sell July 80 call and buy July 82.50 call for a net credit of $100
Yield = 100/250 = 40% in 64 days or 230% annualized
Prob = 50%
Expectation = .5(100) - .3(250) - .2(125) = 50 - 37.5 - 25 = -12.5

Trade hypothesis is that this will cap WMT's rise.

Note: WMT will be very active at the open and these numbers are based on yesterday's close. One could use opening volatility to get a good fill or wait and revise the above numbers to reassess/reset the trade after the open.
 
BMY:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/16/b...t-cancer-cells.html?partner=yahoofinance&_r=0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BMY+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BMY

http://www.medicinenet.com/melanoma/article.htm

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BMY&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Jan '15 32/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/340 = 17.6% in 610 days or 10.6% annualized
Prob = 77%
Expectation = .77(60) - .13(340) - .10(270) = 46.2 - 44.2 - 27.0 = -25
 
TLT:

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/buffett-bonds-terrible-investment-now-120200291.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/gros...on-t-be-like-1994-lGoo5W0uTc~KLfV7H9gucw.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...nce-90-versus-bunds-counter-buffett-pity.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tlt

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

With TLT at 117.06
Trade #1:
Bear Call Spread
Sell the Jan '14 135 call and buy the Jan '14 140 call for a net credit of $25
Yield 25/475 = 5.26% in 243 days or 7.9% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(25) - .047(475) - .04(238) = 22.75 - 22.32 - 9.52 = -9.1

Trade #2:
Bull put spread
Sell the Jan '14 95 put and buy the Jan '14 90 put for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/460 = 6.5% in 243 days or 9.8% annualized
Prob = 97.5%
Expectation = .98(30) - .01(460) - .01(230) = 29.4 - 4.6 - 2.3 = 22.5

(copied from elsewhere)
 
 
HNZ:
BRK and friends will close the acquisition of HNZ within the next day or so:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heinz-buyout-close-week-143002169.html

Acquisitions make for easy money if you know how to do it.

It usually isn't worth just buying the stock but playing the options can be worth while.

HNZ was sold for 72.50 a share. So immediately on the announcement (2/15/2013) I sold 6 Jan '15 $70 puts and bought 6 Jan '15 $65 puts for a net credit of 134.72.

Six 5 point spreads require 6*500 = $3000, minus the 134.72 = $2865. Thus the yield is 134.72/2865 = 4.7%.

I usually plan these to take about 6 months to settle. In fact HNZ has taken 110 days. So my rate of return is 4.7*(365/110) = 15.6% annualized.

This was an extremely certain acquisition and doing the options was much better than buying the stock.

(Atticus questioned the trade at the time so I have posted the outcome... But I think Atticus is no longer posting here)
 
 
ORCL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracles-4q-earnings-line-revs-123002760.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-shares-fall-weak-4q-203646661.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11958176/1/oracles-cloudy-future.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...nder-cloud-shift-crm-rising/?mod=yahoobarrons

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividen...racle-becomes-oversold-orcl/?partner=yahootix

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100834446?__...yahoo&doc=100834446|Cramer:+I+'Gave+Up'+on+Th

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dust-settle-132756476.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=orcl

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCL&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Jan '14 22/17 bull put spread for a net credit of $29
Yield = 29/471 = 6.16% IN 207 DAYS OR 10.9% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(29) - .01(471) - .04(236) = 27.6 - 4.71 - 9.44 = 13.45
 
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