Conservative Options Trades

JNK:

http://www.dallasnews.com/business/headlines/20121202-2-large-fund-managers-eschewing-junk-bonds.ece

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...-etf-draws-record-volume-of-bearish-bets.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JNK&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=bnd,^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JNK&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JNK&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JNK&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
#1
Buy the June 42 put and sell the Jun 38 put for a net debit of $285.
(Bear put Spread)
#2
Buy the March 42 put and sell the March 38 put for a net debit of $235
(Bear put Spread)

At Expiration:
...........................................P/L
Price...................Trade #1.................Trade #2
36.........................115..........................165
38.........................115..........................165
39.15......................0..............................48
39.65.......................................................0
40.........................(98)..........................(48)
42.........................(285)........................(235)
44.........................(285)........................(235)

Trade #1 Potential yield on JNK < 38 = 115/285 = 40% in 200 days or 74% annualized.
Trade #2 Potential yield on JNK < 38 = 165/235 = 70% in 102 days or 251% annualized.

You just have to be right about junk bonds. The June trade gives more time to be right but also gives more time to be wrong.

BTW: There are many other trades that could be compared... bear put spreads, bear call spreads...Jan, March, June etc etc.

(copy of trade posted elsewhere.. all posters on ignore)
 
I pointed out that danshirley changed his name to oldnemesis several weeks ago.
Are you telling me you didn't notice the similarities in the type strategy they both do, the similar posting of info related to their trades, the similar angry and defensive banterings, and the similar refusal to discuss their trades???
Not to mention oldnemesis appeared the same week danshirley "dissappeared".

The funny thing is danshirley didn't even really attempt to hide the name change by posting differently.
Kind of makes you wonder why he even bothered to change his name.... which is a no-no.
 
Quote from Put_Master:
I pointed out that danshirley changed his name to oldnemesis several weeks ago.
Are you telling me you didn't notice the similarities in the type strategy they both do, the similar posting of info related to their trades, the similar angry and defensive banterings, and the similar refusal to discuss their trades???
Not to mention oldnemesis appeared the same week danshirley "dissappeared".
The funny thing is danshirley didn't even really attempt to hide the name change by posting differently.
Kind of makes you wonder why he even bothered to change his name.... which is a no-no.
More...

who cares?
[some here seem to need a more constructive hobby]

you can read his posts, if you like,
or you can even ignore them - if you can,
but some of you just can't seem to help yourselves

marc
:cool:
 
Quote from marcoPolo21:

who cares?
[some here seem to need a more constructive hobby]

you can read his posts, if you like,
or you can even ignore them - if you can,
but some of you just can't seem to help yourselves

marc
:cool:
More...
Seems to me Danshirley is the one who can't help himself.
What is the point in changing your name, if you are not even going to attempt to hide it?
And why post trades, if you put everyone on ignore, so you don't have to discuss them?
Personally, I really don't care. I just find it amusing that he made no attempt to even hide the name switch.
Either way, we are all on "ignore".... or so he says.
 
Quote from Put_Master:

I pointed out that danshirley changed his name to oldnemesis several weeks ago.
More...


What sort of person would change their username on an anonymous board? Must be trying to hide something.


:)
 
DIA:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=dia

http://articles.marketwatch.com/201...591_1_fiscal-cliff-factory-activity-tax-hikes

Trade:
With DIA at 129.55
Feb 136/140 bear call spread (sell the 136 buy the 140) for a net credit of $44
Price.......................P/L.........Prob >
132.........................44...........36%
134.........................44...........27%
136.........................44...........20%
136.44.....................0............19%
138........................(160)........13%
140........................(356).........9%
142........................(356).........6%

Potential yield = 44/356 = 12.4% in 73 days or 60% annualized.

When 'fiscal cliff' is resolved how much will the market pop and for how long??

(copy of trade posted elsewhere.. all posters on ignore)
 
Quote from diaoptions:

What sort of person would change their username on an anonymous board? Must be trying to hide something.


:)
More...

No one. But I prefer your fake trading to this guys arrogance.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:

No one. But I prefer your fake trading to this guys arrogance.
More...

Not to mention his username changes. Of course, diaoptions has good reason to change his username. Unfortunately, no matter his moniker, he is still a liar, a fraud and a tool who fools no one.
 
GERN:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/geron-ends-brain-cancer-drug-223431356.html

http://www.minyanville.com/trading-...61?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GERN+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GERN&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GERN&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

buy the March 2.00 call and sell the March 1.00 put for a net outlay of zero dollars.
This is a 'risk reversal' trade
http://www.optiontradingpedia.com/risk_reversal.htm

Comparison trade: Buy the March 2.00 call at Tues closing price.

................................................P/L..........................
Price.........................Spread...............Long Call
0..............................(100).....................(14)
1................................0.........................(14)
2................................0.........................(14)
3..............................100.........................86
4..............................200.......................186

Cash outlay for the risk reversal is zero but risk is $100, cash outlay for the long call is $14 but the risk is $14.

GERN probably can't actually go to zero... at least not by march.

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&b...a=X&ei=Ufa-UJzhNIr89QSOsIHQBQ&ved=0CG8Q_BIwAQ

(Put the little man on constitution ave and you can drive by GERN corporate headquarters. Not very impressive. When I had my pharm services company I spent a lot of time with companies like GERN at places like this. A lot of smart people taking a big risk trying to make a big splash... like Genentech. These companies are Mostly in Boston and North Jersey. This is in Calif.)
 
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