Conservative Options Trades

KFT:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambr...-an-investors-shopping-list/?partner=yahootix
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-shares-2nd-qtr-results-163008802.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kraft-foods-profit-2q-stands-205129150.html
http://www.thestreet.com/story/1165...-52-week-high-kft.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KFT+Key+Statistics
http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=kft
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=KFT&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KFT&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With KFT at 40.51
Dec 35/30 bull put spread for $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 139 days or 13.8% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(25) - .01(475) - .04(237) = 23.75 - 4.75 - 9.48 = 9.52

images
 
KMB:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/755...-with-kimberly-clark-corporation?source=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kimberly-clark-price-target-raised-112921085.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1164...-52-week-high-kmb.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KMB+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=KMB

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KMB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=KMB&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Looking at Oct bull put spreads:
Oct Expiration....73 days
Trade..............Prem.......Req.....Yield..........Ann.......Prob.......Expectation
72.50/70.0........5.00.......245......2.04%......10.2%.....99%.........2.5
75.00/72.50....20.00.......230.......8.7%.......43.5%.....98%........16.2
77.50/75.00....25.00.......225......11.1%......55.6%......94%.......14.5
80.00/77.50....45.00.......205......22.0%.....109.7%.....77%......(8.25)

75.00/72.50 will maximize expectation for Oct spreads 2.5 points wide.


http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&b...a=X&ei=5QMhUMHPA8mJ6AHNr4G4Cw&ved=0CAYQ8gEwAA

(take the little man and put him on Phelps Drive and you can drive around KMB corporate headquarters)
 
Quote from danshirley:

UGA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/experts-calif-refinery-fire-boost-162743239.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=UGA+Profile

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UGA+Basic+Chart

Trade:
Oct 47/45 bull put spread for $30
Yield = 30/170 = 17.6% in 73 days or 88.2% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(30) - .03(170) - .02(85) = 28.5 - 5.1 - 1.7 = 21.7
More...

Thanks, don't know if price changed quickly but right now unable to get $30 or anything as credit for that spread.
 
Quote from danshirley:

Send me your name and address and I'll send you a refund.
More...

Thanks, I'll be happy just continuing reading your good trading ideas.

Not all of us here despise nor mock you behind your back.
 
I assume this UGA is hypo as it hasn't traded all week. Not a single car. How did you arrive at the $0.30 credit? Not trolling, legit question.
 
Atticus:

The $30 was shown to me on the "Trade and Probability Calculator" at OptionsXpress.

I just looked and it is STILL showing the $30.

I don't know where OptionsXpress drew that from. They are usually pretty good and you can USUALLY get filled on their
quotes.

They usually draw sell prices at bid and buy prices at ask... but sometimes they revert to last... which can be a problem if 'last' was last week.

:-)

Yahoo is showing no-bid on the oct puts from 47 down... although they show a volume of 10 for the 47 and 37 for the 45 with last on the 47 at 1.20 and last on the 45 at .10 .

So from that.... anything is possible. I wouldn't doubt that the bids on the low puts were dropped after the fire.

:-)
 
Atticus:

I just submitted that order and OptionsXpress is showing that spread bid at .25 and ask at .40 .

So I am between. It'll be interesting if it fills.

:-)
 
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