Conservative Options Trades

TLT Ctd:
Here is the table including the 145/150 call spread which is a Sept spread. I also threw in a butterfly for comparison sake:

Strikes.........119................119/114.........125/130...........109/119/129............145/150
At Risk.........113.................... 77................316.....................561....................487
Price.........Long Put.........Put Spread....Call Spread.............Butterfly.....Spt Call Sprd
110..............779....................423...............184.....................(473)...................13
115..............290....................332...............184.......................25......................13
120..............(113)..................(77)..............184......................326.....................13
125..............(113)..................(77)..............184......................(182)...................13
126..............(113)..................(77)................69......................(575)...................13
130..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)....................(575)...................13
135..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)....................(575)...................13
 
hey dan i see you know alot about options trading. i made money off calls on vch. now i just reinvested some money into face book july 25 puts. at 1.10 . i am looking to make money yearly doing this do you have advice you can give me?
 
In today's disaster two areas that were immune were:

Treasuries:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=tlt&ql=1

and Utilities:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xlu&ql=1

Energy was especially hard hit:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xle&ql=1

While one of the stocks on my recession resistant list defied the market when the chairman bought 1 million shares:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=teva&ql=1

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012...edType=RSS&feedName=rbssHealthcareNews&rpc=43

Some other selected comparisons:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=wmt&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=so&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xlf&ql=1
 
MON:
(I believe I posted about MON in April also. It is a member of my recession Resistant list)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevesc...ys-earnings-should-be-up-25/?partner=yahootix

http://www.forbes.com/sites/zacks/2...oks-like-fertile-investment/?partner=yahootix

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/monsanto-ups-guidance-130028361.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MON+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=mon

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MON&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MON&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MON&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
50/47.50 bull put spread for $17
Yield = 17/233 = 7.3% in 214 days or 12.4% annualized
Prob = 92%
Expectation = .92(17) - .05(233) - .03(116) = 15.6 - 11.6 - 3.5 = 0.5

(many alternate trades available... e.g. a short put leading to a covered call... an ATM covered call yields about 17% annualized)
 
SGG:

Brazil's sugar harvest is just about in but there are a lot of complex issues weighing on sugar prices:

SUGAR

Forty Year Trading Range: 2.30 cents to 66.00 cents per lb.

Trades on the ICE from 2:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. CDT

Weakness in the Brazilian real is beginning to weigh heavily on Sugar prices. Jonathan Kingsman, chairman of Swiss based Kingsman SA expects global Sugar prices to continue moving lower over the coming months if weakness in the real continues. We must monitor this situation closely.

An increasing amount of Sugar is being used to refine ethanol and used as a sweetener to boot. Competing more and more with corn; it’s come to a point where weather in the growing areas of Brazil and India could become less important and Sugar may trade in step with grains. Is Sugar a grain in disguise? This sounds awfully strange to me, but things do change and traders have no choice but to change with them.

China is expecting a 2 million tonne shortfall in domestic Sugar production this season. Australian Sugar industry executives expect Chinese import demand and regional supply tightness to hold Sugar prices at a premium to benchmark global prices. This technically oversold market could use a correction to the upside. I am not saying it’s going to happen, but it certainly could.

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/664769/The Soft Spot(67).html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/546...sumers-bad-news-for-shareholders?source=yahoo

I expected sugar to flatten out about now based on its 5 year graph and supply issues.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=

A brave trade would be a Aug 70/80 bull call spread on SGG for a $500 debit:
SGG.................P/L
65..................(500)
70..................(500)
75.....................0
80...................500
85...................500

I am sorely tempted but I need just one more indication of a bottom here.
The time is right but the graph is not. Where will SGG open tomorrow??
 
Quote from danshirley:

SGG:

Brazil's sugar harvest is just about in but there are a lot of complex issues weighing on sugar prices:

SUGAR

Forty Year Trading Range: 2.30 cents to 66.00 cents per lb.

Trades on the ICE from 2:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. CDT

Weakness in the Brazilian real is beginning to weigh heavily on Sugar prices. Jonathan Kingsman, chairman of Swiss based Kingsman SA expects global Sugar prices to continue moving lower over the coming months if weakness in the real continues. We must monitor this situation closely.

An increasing amount of Sugar is being used to refine ethanol and used as a sweetener to boot. Competing more and more with corn; it’s come to a point where weather in the growing areas of Brazil and India could become less important and Sugar may trade in step with grains. Is Sugar a grain in disguise? This sounds awfully strange to me, but things do change and traders have no choice but to change with them.

China is expecting a 2 million tonne shortfall in domestic Sugar production this season. Australian Sugar industry executives expect Chinese import demand and regional supply tightness to hold Sugar prices at a premium to benchmark global prices. This technically oversold market could use a correction to the upside. I am not saying it’s going to happen, but it certainly could.

http://www.insidefutures.com/article/664769/The Soft Spot(67).html

http://seekingalpha.com/article/546...sumers-bad-news-for-shareholders?source=yahoo

I expected sugar to flatten out about now based on its 5 year graph and supply issues.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=

A brave trade would be a Aug 70/80 bull call spread on SGG for a $500 debit:
SGG.................P/L
65..................(500)
70..................(500)
75.....................0
80...................500
85...................500

I am sorely tempted but I need just one more indication of a bottom here.
The time is right but the graph is not. Where will SGG open tomorrow??
More...

Catch a falling knife??
cheers
john
 
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