Conservative Options Trades

HPQ:

http://news.investors.com/article/6...ws-confirms-big-layoffs.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/h-p-stock-up-on-results-cutting-27k-jobs-2012-05-23?dist=afterbell

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HPQ+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HPQ&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

HP at 21.08

August Bull Put Spreads:
.................Trade 1..................Trade 2
Sell..........AUG 15 put...........AUG 17 Put
Buy..........Aug 12 put............AUG 14 Put
P/L.................9.00................23.00
Yield...............3.1%................8.3%
Annualized......13%.................35%
Prob...............95%.................85%
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-may-be-headed-toward-fiscal-cliff-2012-05-25?pagenumber=1

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX

I maintan a list of stocks that are 'recession resistant'. The market has been running up, and like the market itself I have ventured beyond the conservative...but now I think it is time to return to my conservative roots. These are my rr, conservative stocks (I have left out some that are prohibitively overbought like MCD and WMT) :

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=ABT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=AWR&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=bax&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=bcr&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=bdx&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=cl&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=cwt&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=dba&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=gis&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=mon&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=njr&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=nly&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=nwn&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=rah&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=so&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=teva&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=tlt&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=ugi&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=wgl&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xel&ql=1

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xom&ql=1
 
I maintan a list of stocks that are 'recession resistant'. The market has been running up, and like the market itself I have ventured beyond the conservative...but now I think it is time to return to my conservative roots. These are my rr, conservative stocks (I have left out some that are prohibitively overbought like MCD and WM
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I see that your list is highly corralated to the SPX. Is this a concern for you?

cheers
john
ps
I remember Camden as a thriving city with RCA, Cambell soups,
a robust shipbuilding industry, and the center of a large manufacturing system
Corruption and urban decay contributed to its downfall
like other once great cities .
Without honest visionary leadership things will not change
cheers again
john
 
RGR:

http://news.investors.com/article/6...s-taking-new-gun-orders.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=rgr

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RGR+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RGR&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
Oct 25/22.5 bull put spread for $20
Yield = 20/230 = 8.69% in 142 days or 22.3% annualized
Prob = 89%
Expectation = .89(20) - .06(230) - .05(125) = 17.8 - 13.8 - 6.25 = -2.25
i.e. zero.... options priced according to probabilities.
 
TLT:
Quote:
The TLT Treasury exchange-traded fund is hitting record highs, but its option activity is led by put buying today.

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund is up 2 percent to $125.48, off an all-time high of $125.75 reached after it gapped higher this morning. The TLT, which was down at $96 a year ago, has been on a steep uptrend since hitting the $110 level in March.

The July 119 puts that top the action, indicating that someone believes that the stock will revert to its mean price. More than 10,000 of those puts have traded against open interest of 1,316, according to optionMONSTER's Depth Charge system. The puts were bought in institution-size blocks for increasingly high prices, with a print of 3,700 going for $1.17 and 1,266 for $1.19.

The put buying is not tied to any trading in the underlying shares identified by our systems. But this fund is correlated with many instruments, including futures, so the puts could be a hedge or a relative value play in a number of ways. The inverse correlation of the TLT with the S&P 500 is usually quite high, running near -1, but it currently sits at -0.5.

.................................................................................Option Monster

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-etfs-hit-time-highs-135701135.html

http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinve...cludes-pratfall-at-1-620/?mod=BOL_hpp_blog_ii

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

With TLT at 126.14 Compare:
(closing Prices)
Long 119 put, 119/114 Bear Put Spread and 125/130 Bear Call Spread:

Strikes.........119................119/114.........125/130
At Risk.........113.................... 77................316
Price.........Long Put..........Put Spread.....Call Spread
110..............779....................423...............184
115..............290....................332...............184
120..............(113)..................(77)..............184
125..............(113)..................(77)..............184
126..............(113)..................(77)................69
130..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)
135..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)
 
TLT:
see above
145/150 bear call spread for $13
prob = 96%
Expectation = .96(13) - .02(487) - .02(243) = 12.48 - 9.74 - 4.86 = -2 = 0

I would operate some where between the 125/130 bear call spread and the 145/150.
 
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