Conservative Options Trades

I tend to keep things until expiration. This is probably wrong when judged by risk analysis.

e.g. I am currently holding an ANR put spread which expires this week and where the remaining premium on the short put is less than $1, which is less than 2% of the original premium.

Probably I should have closed this a couple of weeks ago but I am too cheap to pay the remaining premium and the commission on the remote chance that they have some sort of disaster.

Unfortunately there are no tables where I could look up the probability of a black swann occurance which would drop the stock price below my spread... so I close those I am at all nervous about and leave the others to expire.

Someday I will get caught and if I do it will be a costly mistake.

BTW: my broker has even marked that short option and offered me a reduced commission to close it out... but I persist.

:-)
 
The probability I list is based on a presumed log normal distribution and is given to me in a graph by my broker (OptionsXpress). A similar probability is also listed on OptionsOracle... the probability from the two sources are very close but not identical.
 
Quote from danshirley:

The probability I list is based on a presumed log normal distribution
More...

Really? Wow... and here I thought people had learnt their lessons...

That's no different than an astrologer in the monsoon- anyone can predict rain in the next day with a 90% accuracy.

It's the impending ugly typhoons that noone in Bangladesh (or world across) seems to predict and prevent that destroys that poor country year after year...

Lognormal? haha

More like LOLnormal...
 
DBA:

The investment seeks to track the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Agriculture Excess Return. The index is a rules-based index composed of futures contracts on some of the most liquid and widely traded agricultural commodities – corn, wheat, soy beans and sugar. The index is intended to reflect the performance of the agricultural sector.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wheat-prices-surge-improving-global-195823128.html

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...-highest-since-september-commodities-at-close

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DBA+Holdings

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DBA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Sell the Jan '13 25 put and buy the Jan '13 23 put for a net credit of $25.
Yield = 25/175 = 14.3 % in 310 days or 16.8% annualized.

Prob = 90.25%

Expectation = .9025(25) - .019(175) - .0973(87.5) = 22.6 - 3.32 - 8.51 = 10.8

Expected yield = 6.2%
 
SOL:

"The market has lost its mind
I have no idea what investors were thinking about Renesola (NYSE: SOL ) Friday. The company released earnings for the fourth quarter, which was terrible, and the stock is up more than 13%. I am pounding my head on my desk in response to this move.

Renesola, like other Chinese manufacturers, appears to be taking the "we'll make it up in volume" approach. New flash: More volume in a money-losing product has never led to a profit. "

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/03/17/this-week-in-solar.aspx

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SOL&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Buy Apr SOL $3 put and sell Apr SOL $2 put for a net debit of $55.

........P/L Table
Price..........P/L
1.50..........$45
2.00..........$45
2.45............0
3.00..........($55)
3.50..........($55)
 
AAPL:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

June bull put spread at the 95% confidence level :
Sell the Jun 450 put and buy the Jun 445 put for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 88 days or 26.5% annualized
Confidence Level = 95%
Expectation = .95(30) - .025(470) - .025(235) = 28.5 - 11.75 - 5.9 = 10.85
Expected yield = 10.85/470 = 2.3% in 88 days or 9.6% annualized

Turn the above bull put spread into an Iron Condor by adding a bear call spread with the same confidence level:

Sell the Jun 780 call and buy the Jun 785 call for a net credit of $10

The net trade:
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 88 days or 36% annualized
Confidence Level = 95%
Expectation = .95(40) - .025(460) - .025(230) = 38 - 11.5 - 5.75 = 20.75
Expected yield = 20.75/460 = 4.5% in 88 days or 18.7% annualized
 
GIS:

General Mills (GIS) announced that earnings fell by 0.2% though sales were 13% higher. The company earned $391.5 million, or 58 cents per share, for the fiscal quarter that ended on February 26, versus $392.1 million, or 59 cents per share in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings were 55 cents versus 56 cents, and sales were $4.12 billion versus $3.65 billion. Analysts had expected earnings of 56 cents per share on revenues of $4.09 billion.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketn...al-mills-announces-earnings/?partner=yahootix

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/22/b...ts-expectations.html?_r=1&ref=generalmillsinc

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GIS+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=GIS&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:

Jan '13 30/25 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.3% in 303 days or 6.3% annualized
Confidence Level = 98%
Expectation = .98(25) - .01(475) - .01(237) = 24.5 - 4.75 - 2.37 = 17.4
Expected Yield = 17.4/475 = 3.7% in 303 days or 4.5 % annualized.
 
YHOO:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...o-credentials-after-criticism.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=yhoo
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=YHOO+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-events-involving-yahoo-performance-225757799.html


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=YHOO&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=yhoo

Trade:
With YHOO at 15.15
Jan 10/7.50 bull put spread for $13 (submit for $15)
Yield = 13/237 = 5.5% in 259 days or 7.7% annualized
Prob = 96%
Expectation = .96(13) - .01(237) - .03(118) = 12.5 - 2.4 - 3.5 = 6.6
Expected yield = 6.6/237 = 2.6% in 259 days = 3.6% annualized

YHOO does not pay a dividend.


not a recommendation for my own use only
 
BAX:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/baxter-beats-1q-forecasts-181529735.html

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BAX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX+Key+Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=BAX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BAX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
With BAX at 55.68
Sell the Jan '13 45 put and buy the Jan '13 40 put for a net credit of $45.
Yield = 45/455 = 9.9% in 260 days or 13.9% annualized.
Prob = 92.7%
Expectation = .927(45) - .012(455) - .061(227) = 41.7 - 5.5 - 16.9 = 19.3

not a recommendation for my own use only
 
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