Conservative Options Trades

WFC:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahto...has-another-stellar-quarter/?partner=yahootix

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...er-profit-climbs-on-mortgages.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wells-fargo-performs-expected-163511895.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WFC+Key+Statistics

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=wfc

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=WFC&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WFC+Basic+Chart

trade:
Oct 26/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $15
Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 98 days or 30.2% annualized
Prob = 90.3%
Expectation = .903(15) - .035(185) - .052(92.5)= 13.5 - 6.5 - 4.8 = 2.2
Effect of commissions:
Taking 10 contracts with a commission of $15 at OptionsXpress:
Yield = (150-15)/1850 = 135/1850 = 7.3% in 98 days or 27% annualized
Expectation = .903(135) - .035(1850) - .052(925) = 121.9 - 64.8 - 48.1 = 9
 
WFC ctd:

With WFC at 33.91

Different Expirations,strikes For WFC
Short put Strike:25
Month......Premium....(-comm)....days......Annualized......Prob.....Prob*Ann Yield
July...........0................0.............6...........0............>99%/...........0
Aug...........01..............0............34...........0............>99%............0
Oct...........15..............1............97........0015%...........99%...........0
Jan13.........50.............35..........188.........2.7%...........96%..........2.6%
Jan14.......1.90...........1.75.........552.........4.6%...........84%.........3.8%

short put Aug:
Strike....Premium....(-comm)....days......Annualized......Prob.....Prob*Ann Yield
25..........01..............0..........34............0..............>99%.........0
28..........04..............0..........34............0..............99%...........0
30..........12..............0..........34............0..............95%...........0
32..........38.............24..........34..........11.5%........78%..........8.97
34.........1.08............93..........34..........35.2%........47%.........16.54

5 point spread....Aug

Strike....Premium....(-comm)....days......Annualized......Prob.....Prob*Ann Yield
30/25........10............0.........34.........0...................96%.........0
35/30........157.........142.......34.........490%.............30%........147

5 point spread...Oct
Strike....Premium....(-comm)....days......Annualized......Prob.....Prob*Ann Yield
25/20........7..............0..........97............0..............99%.........0
30/25.......48.............33.........97........26.5%...........84%........22.3
35/30......180............165........97.........185%...........38%........70.3

5 Point Spread....Jan '13
Strike....Premium....(-comm)....days......Annualized......Prob.....Prob*Ann Yield
25/20.......31............17........188.........6.8%.............96%..........6.5
30/25.......87............72........188........32.7%.............75%.........24.5
35/30......193...........178.......188.......107.3%............40%.........42.9

5 Point Spread....Jan '14
Strike....Premium....(-comm).....days......Annualized......Prob.....Prob*Ann Yield
25/20.......93...........78.........552........1.09%............84%....... .9
30/25......165..........150.........552.......29.6%............64%....... 18.9
35/30......226..........211.........552.......48.3%............42%....... 20.3
 
seems to me with where the vix is right now.. i'd wanna only be short vol on the near term at most.. and i surely wouldn't be selling put spreads for october which is when i believe vol is probably gonna go up... vol could go down and stay down for a while like all summer.. but i think selling leaps has to little of a reward.. that premium doesn't lose value fast to make any sense of the trade.. i also think getting more aggressive with less money is better to.. better to get blown out on one 5 point combo then ten in one trade.. i think to spread risk.. i'm trying to figure out when to orient myself long volatility..
 
On a portfolio level:

One of the regular posters I have on igore ( I have them all on ignore) points out that the VIX is at a very low level right now and that we are consequently getting a small return by selling October puts for premium.

He predicts (we never predict) that by October the VIX will be much higher.

It well may be that the VIX is very low now and that the return on our short puts is not at its best, but since all our trades are constructed to hold to expiration we don't really care what the price of our expiring short puts are as long as we don't have to buy them back. The return is the return and if it is acceptable we will reap that return when the trade expires... and if we have to buy them back in October we will be much more concerned with the price of the underlying than with the relative price of the options... although it is something we should be aware of.

If I were to have a concern for the low vix and its possible role in our performance should it shoot up (i'm not) I could put in a hedging trade on the vix itself to try to protect the portfolio from that eventuality.

e.g.:

VXX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VXX+Profile
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=VXX+Basic+Chart

Unfortunately there are no Oct options but I could do a Dec spread to cover it:

Portfolio hedging trade:
Dec 15/20 bull call spread for a net debit of $84 would yield:

Price..............P/L
10.01 ........($84.00)
12.89 ........($84.00)
15.00 ........($84.00)
15.84 ..........$0.00
15.92 ..........$7.70
18.94 ..........$310.40
20.00 ..........$416.00
25.00 ..........$416.00

This is an interesting trade in and of its own right but is outside of our usual considerations which are based on value and price of the underlying and not on speculation about the relative price of options.

For me the real practical question is: "does the low VIX preclude entering trades which are based on shorting options that expire when the VIX is expected to be higher" ??

My answer is that as long as the annualized return and risk are within our parameters it is something we should be aware of but can largely ignore.


And again...Please... we are not interested in long winded speculative conversations here. There are plenty of other threads that are devoted to that. We are doing trades not bull shitting for its own sake.
 
Quote from danshirley:

WFC:
trade:
Oct 26/28 bull put spread for a net credit of $15
Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 98 days or 30.2% annualized
Prob = 90.3%
Expectation = .903(15) - .035(185) - .052(92.5)= 13.5 - 6.5 - 4.8 = 2.2
Effect of commissions:
Taking 10 contracts with a commission of $15 at OptionsXpress:
Yield = (150-15)/1850 = 135/1850 = 7.3% in 98 days or 27% annualized
Expectation = .903(135) - .035(1850) - .052(925) = 121.9 - 64.8 - 48.1 = 9
More...

Hello,
can you explain how you calculate the expectation?
 
Quote from derTrader:

Hello,
can you explain how you calculate the expectation?
More...

as weird as it sounds.. the guy doesn't want to respond to anyone he is using this thread as his journal.. no sense it makes.. he will tell you he is gonna put you on ignore.. that will be his answer
 
I calculate his annualized % return to be about 28%... before commission costs.
I divide his 98 days into 365 days....= 3.72
I divide his strike gap of 2 into 100.... = 50
I then multiply his credit of $.15, times 50, times 3.72 .... = 28%. minus costs.

HOWEVER, if the stock drops between the 2 strikes and is put to him at $28, his annualized % return then drops to just 2 %.... minus commission.
 
I just repeated the calculations and find my original calculation of expectation has an error.

The equation should be:

Expectation = .903(15) - .035(185) - .062(92.5)= 13.5 - 6.5 - 5.7 = 1.3 NOT 2.2

My appologies. Not significant but still an error, if that was the reason for the question thanks for finding it.
 
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