Conservative Options trades

TEVA:
http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/18/te...ties-pfizer-acquisition.html?partner=yahootix

TEVA up $1.18 on the deal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TEVA&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=c&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=TEVA&annual
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...=teva&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann

Trade:
Jan2011 45/40 bull put spread for .30 net
Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 302 days or 7.7% annualized
Prob> = 96%
Expectation: .96(30) - .02(235) - .007(470) = 18.6
(the poor yield is a function of how much TEVA has run up above support)
................Other expirations for the same spread.................
Exp.......Yield......%.......Annualized..............Prob............Expect
Sept.......8........1.6%........3.2%..................99.9%............5.4
Jun........(2).........0..............0....................100%.............(2)
Apr.........0...........0..............0....................100%..............0
 
PBCT:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PBCT&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=PBCT
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=PBCT
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investo...=PBCT&lstStatement=10YearSummary&stmtView=Ann
PBCT pays a dividend of 3.9%
Trade:
With PBCT at 15.75:
Sell the AUG 2010 15 put and buy the AUG 12.5 put for a net of 50
Yield= 50/200 = 25% in 148 days or 62% annualized.
I'll take PBCT if put and sell calls until called.
Comparing other Expirations:
...Expiration...........Yield.......Days......annualized
....April....................0%.........18...........0%
....May....................6.4%.......53..........44%
....Aug....................25%.......148..........62%
....NOV...................28%........235.........44%
 
 
ORCL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...r-databases-computer-hardware.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://seekingalpha.com/article/242...-second-quarter-exadata-pipeline?source=yahoo
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/oracle-launches-cloud-office-eyes-google-microsoft/42783
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCL&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
ORCL closed at 30.27
Looking at Jan '12 $250 wide bull put spreads:
Spread..........Yield..........Ann..........Prob
15/12.50........3.7%.........3.4%........99%
17.50/15........7.3%.........6.6%........96%
20/17.50........11.6%.......10.5%.......90%
22.50/20........16.3%.......14.8%.......82%
25/22.50........30.2%.........27%........70%
A much more bullish trade:
buy the March 30 call and sell the March 35 call for a net debit of $156
ORCL Price......March Expiration Profit........Gain............Prob
.....25....................(156)..........................(100%)............90%
.....30....................(156)..........................(100%)............50%
.....32......................45...............................28%..............32%
.....34......................243............................156%..............18%
.....36......................344............................220%................9%
.....38......................344............................220%............... 4%
 
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