Conservative Options trades

JNJ:
JNJ has been one of our recession resistant stocks and we currently hold a Jan bull put spread at 50/45. It's earnings were a mild disappointment in Oct and now they have announced a 7% reduction in work force plus some consolidation in facilities:

http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/13/briefing-americas-open-markets-equities-jnj.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091013-710025.html
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/nov2009/db2009113_481501.htm?campaign_id=yhoo
http://philadelphia.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/stories/2009/11/02/daily48.html?ana=yfcpc
All of this has had relatively little impact on the stock:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=JNJ&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&c=
with no impact at all on our way ITM put spread.
the question will be if we should keep it on our stable stock list or avoid it for a quarter or so.
 
BAX:
Like JNJ BAX also reported rising profits on flat sales:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ba...djusts-full-year-view-2009-10-15?siteid=yhoof
Which caused the stock to gap down and then stabilize:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BAX&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=c&c=
But unlike JNJ BAX has not announced any follow-on actions.
Trade:
Sell the Jan 2011 40 put and buy the Jan 2011 35 put for a net of 60.
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 439 days or 11.3% annualized.
Random variable probability of BAX > 40 is 90%
 
MCD:
Our current position in MCD SSF covered calls will expire in 9 days.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MCD&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
70/75::50/45 IC Using yesterday's closing prices:
Exp..............Yield.............days............Annualized....Probability
January........3.52%..........65...................19.7% ...........90%
March..........12.35%........128...................35%..............80%
June.............26.9%..........219..................45%..............69%
Jan 2011......56.25%..........436..................47%..............55%

Is the Jan 2011 the best deal? I'll recheck the numbers when the market is running.
It might be good to put on the put spread and then wait for a confirmation of topping before putting on the call spread.
 
Quote from danshirley:

MCD:
Our current position in MCD SSF covered calls will expire in 9 days.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MCD&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
70/75::50/45 IC Using yesterday's closing prices:
Exp..............Yield.............days............Annualized....Probability
January........3.52%..........65...................19.7% ...........90%
March..........12.35%........128...................35%..............80%
June.............26.9%..........219..................45%..............69%
Jan 2011......56.25%..........436..................47%..............55%

Is the Jan 2011 the best deal? I'll recheck the numbers when the market is running.
More...

Not if you're basing your decision on your annualized return * probability. June is the pick by your numbers.
 
50/45::70/75
Exp..............Yield.............days............Annualized....Probability
January........2.67%..........65...................14.9% ............90%
March..........11.36%........128...................32.3%............80%
June.............26.3%..........219..................43.8%............69%
Jan 2011......58.23%........436..................48.7%..............55%

Live data
 
BAX is down a couple of points today. The reason is a story in the nut-job press that Baxter deliberately released viruses in the Ukraine so thay could sell more vaccine:
http://baltimorechronicle.com/2009/111109Lendman.shtml
No response from baxter, Ukraine gov't (which supposedly is in cahoots with baxter in a plot to make everybody sick) or anyone else creditable.

Could be a chance to enter BAX...or a world shaking conspiracy, one or the other.
:-)
 
Quote from danshirley:

BAX is down a couple of points today. The reason is a story in the nut-job press that Baxter deliberately released viruses in the Ukraine so thay could sell more vaccine:
http://baltimorechronicle.com/2009/111109Lendman.shtml
No response from baxter, Ukraine gov't (which supposedly is in cahoots with baxter in a plot to make everybody sick) or anyone else creditable.

Could be a chance to enter BAX...or a world shaking conspiracy, one or the other.
:-)
More...

BAX was up $3 this week, prior to today's gap, and is still above Monday's close. Sure, the story had some impact, but I wouldn't buy it simply on a $2 move in a down market. Do you plan on covering $2 higher?
 
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcon...gy/stories/031209dnbusatthybrid.252391fe.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLNE&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=c&c=

CLNE:
Buy the CLNE June SSF for 12.54 and sell the June 10 Call for 3.73.
Req: 1254/5 = 251 - 373 = -$122. i.e. the premium on the option is more than the required margin on the future.

Yield = $119/ nothing.

If called then I will be short the stock and long the future... at expiration the future will convert to stock and cover the short.

If called and unable to borrow then buy the stock to cover the call and sell the future. The risk here is the spread on the future which is more than covered by the option premium.
 
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