Conservative Options Strategy
- Thread starter yucca_mtn
- Start date
Finding the delta of a spread is as you suggest. Simply subtract one delta from the other. Many brokers will also give you a portfolio delta so that you could hedge your entire position using index options. They would be easier to implement since you wouldn't need to buy puts on every option. You won't be perfectly protected, but it would be reasonably close to neutral.
In my portfolio, I don't try to have a delta of exactly zero, but I like to hold it less than plus or minus 10 (or 0.1-depending on your notation system). This means that a one dollar change in the underlying makes less than 10 cents change in the option. If you try to keep it exactly at zero, you will have a lot of transaction costs trading in and out, or buying and selling the underlying stock in small lots. As you know, there is always some slippage.
Hopefully, you are enjoying the rise over the last couple of days.
In my portfolio, I don't try to have a delta of exactly zero, but I like to hold it less than plus or minus 10 (or 0.1-depending on your notation system). This means that a one dollar change in the underlying makes less than 10 cents change in the option. If you try to keep it exactly at zero, you will have a lot of transaction costs trading in and out, or buying and selling the underlying stock in small lots. As you know, there is always some slippage.
Hopefully, you are enjoying the rise over the last couple of days.
Todayâs activity:
SOLD 3 DBA JAN 25/35 @ 7.6
Stock at 36.18, cost basis 6.85, gross profit 225
(exited today cause stock only $1 deep, and I can use the money better.)
SOLD 5 MOS SEPT 70/75 @ 4.8
Stock at 123.71, net profit 560.5
(early out opportunity)
BUY 6 GLD MAR 75/80 @ 3.63
Stock at 88.7, expected gross profit 822
(golden opportunity (pun) to buy the dip)
SOLD 5 DBA OCT 30/35 @ 3.65
Stock at 36.26, net LOSS 189
(same reason as above, 189 loss of a 5 spread position is just fine)
BUY 5 MTW DEC 17.5/22.5 @ 3.95
Stock at 27.18, expected gross profit 525
(I just sold a position in the stock at a loss, think Iâm deep enough now).
The only reason Iâm not loading up on UNG spreads is cause they donât offer deep enough strike prices. And I donât do long.
As far as how the day ended, my number of risky positions dropped from 16 to 8. I feel like giving myself an âattaboyâ for hanging tough, but as soon as I do, the market will bite me, hard.
***
to ATH1 - Thanks for your comments. No I donât calculate that. Before this journal, my documentation was, shall we say, lacking.
***
JohnGreen
Also thank you for your posts. I was suspecting that the spread delta was simply the difference between the leg deltas, but I could not find a reference verifying that. Iâll take your word for it. Iâm still working on that put business. Actually delta-neutral is not what I was contemplating, just a simplistic, easy as dirt, method to use put protection. Iâm thinking now that waiting till some certain (small) % of drop in the spread value (after having bought the spread) should trigger buying a put valued at about 20% of the expected gain, but havenât had time to really work that out yet.
SOLD 3 DBA JAN 25/35 @ 7.6
Stock at 36.18, cost basis 6.85, gross profit 225
(exited today cause stock only $1 deep, and I can use the money better.)
SOLD 5 MOS SEPT 70/75 @ 4.8
Stock at 123.71, net profit 560.5
(early out opportunity)
BUY 6 GLD MAR 75/80 @ 3.63
Stock at 88.7, expected gross profit 822
(golden opportunity (pun) to buy the dip)
SOLD 5 DBA OCT 30/35 @ 3.65
Stock at 36.26, net LOSS 189
(same reason as above, 189 loss of a 5 spread position is just fine)
BUY 5 MTW DEC 17.5/22.5 @ 3.95
Stock at 27.18, expected gross profit 525
(I just sold a position in the stock at a loss, think Iâm deep enough now).
The only reason Iâm not loading up on UNG spreads is cause they donât offer deep enough strike prices. And I donât do long.
As far as how the day ended, my number of risky positions dropped from 16 to 8. I feel like giving myself an âattaboyâ for hanging tough, but as soon as I do, the market will bite me, hard.
***
to ATH1 - Thanks for your comments. No I donât calculate that. Before this journal, my documentation was, shall we say, lacking.
***
JohnGreen
Also thank you for your posts. I was suspecting that the spread delta was simply the difference between the leg deltas, but I could not find a reference verifying that. Iâll take your word for it. Iâm still working on that put business. Actually delta-neutral is not what I was contemplating, just a simplistic, easy as dirt, method to use put protection. Iâm thinking now that waiting till some certain (small) % of drop in the spread value (after having bought the spread) should trigger buying a put valued at about 20% of the expected gain, but havenât had time to really work that out yet.
hi yucca, i accidentally stumbled into your options journal thread and loves all the posts so far. I like to write to show my support and to give some encouragement in trading for a retirement living. I would like to post comments too, as I believe everyone has something to learn or share with each other.
If you want to reduce risks in your portfolio, methods are adding a leg ie. a put option, rolling a spread to a lower price level, adding a put spread or closing the position (surrender and run). These methods have been posted and discussed at great length so I got nothing new to add there. What I want to add is to reduce risk, imo, the portfolio should not be totally into a particular sector ie. energy, oil and metals in your case. The portfolio should be spread out into a few sectors of the economy like food, beverages, defence, transportation, china-related etc.
If you want to reduce risks in your portfolio, methods are adding a leg ie. a put option, rolling a spread to a lower price level, adding a put spread or closing the position (surrender and run). These methods have been posted and discussed at great length so I got nothing new to add there. What I want to add is to reduce risk, imo, the portfolio should not be totally into a particular sector ie. energy, oil and metals in your case. The portfolio should be spread out into a few sectors of the economy like food, beverages, defence, transportation, china-related etc.
Hi yucca, I have read a lot of your journal. Have you considered what would happen to your portfolio with a market meltdown? Perhaps buying some short-term cheap OTM puts on the general market (say the SPY) might lessen a little stress of those 15% swings.
Back to the question posed by Ath1. And Nicktan. And BeatingtheS&P.
What I have noticed in past trading is the disappointment Iâve felt when watching a stock that had a temporary setback and taking a loss as I sold the spreads, only to watch it recover a week later. What I was trying to do then is standardize a sell signal. Like selling the spread whenever the spread lost 25%, for example when a $5 spread that cost 400 became worth about 300, I would immediately sell it. This was assuming that if each $5 spread cost $4 and that âmostâ of the spreads would hit $5 before it hit$3 (for a $100 loss per spread). Iâm now sure this was flawed thinking (although it seemed to work).
My new approach is to avoid sectors I donât have a lot of confidence in. And to hold as long as the prospects for a price recovery within my timeframe seems solid. And to take maximum advantage of dips in these sectors.
Iâve demonstrated my willingness often in this journal to take losses (large or small) when I no longer had confidence in a stock. Of course, the stronger your conviction to hold on to a wounded spread, the more risk you take on if you are proven wrong. This is where I am now with my portfolio, holding on to some risky positions out of conviction, mostly.
There are exception, like TIE, X. These are a little speculative in my view. Iâm hoping for a good day to sell the TIE (yesterday was one such day, but I missed it â I could have taken a 250 hit but now Iâm looking at 400 hit.). X just reported earnings and stock surged $20, and my spreads are now good, but I donât have confidence X can hold the price till October. Iâm also starting to lose some confidence in natural gas, it is not recovering like I thought it would.
Yes Iâm rambling. Would like to think there is a magic bullet PUT protection strategy that I will uncover soon
***
About diversification: It is a second choice method of stock selection IMO. First choice is selecting a strong sector. Iâve found, in my limited experience, that selecting stocks by screening or by analystâs reports is a difficult path. First of all, selecting companies in diverse industries based on fundamental analysis gives you a large pile of prospects that only produce a few candidates that have the option interest to allow the DITM strategy to be implemented. Then you likely do not understand the company well enough so you are totally reliant on other people. Technical analysis seems to be insufficient to help in stock selection for 4 to 9 months out. So it is a crapshoot. We listen to Cramerâs stories or some other guru opinion and throw our money at them.
I used to be diversified. Works great in a bull market. Works great if there is the magic bullet put protection to back it up. Works great right up till the time when it doesnât, and you have no idea whether to hold a spread or take small losses, or throw more money into corrective measures. All you have to rely on is idiot analysts.
Iâm hoping that the idiots I listen to (and believe) are better than your idiots, and are correct in their story that the positions I hold are correct. Then I rely heavily on the DITM strategy to give me enough extra protection to get by.
About hedging with puts on the indexes â Most of my positions are often contrary to the indexes to some extent. I think for any puts I buy to be effective, they should be in the stocks Iâm in. Will listen to contrary opinion with reasons.
BTW: The reasons I like a DITM BULL vertical spread apply almost equally to DITM BEAR vertical spreads. The word âalmostâ is a big discussion in itself. But the fact of having a bear vertical very far away from the money is theoretically appealing for the same reasons of safety and yield.
For the record, since Iâm used to calls ,not puts - For an $80 stock, a 50 call in ITM. Is a 50 put ITM or OTM?
***
So DITM vertical spreads is the topic of this journal, and others who offer advice or interest in the subject are more than welcome to post..
What I have noticed in past trading is the disappointment Iâve felt when watching a stock that had a temporary setback and taking a loss as I sold the spreads, only to watch it recover a week later. What I was trying to do then is standardize a sell signal. Like selling the spread whenever the spread lost 25%, for example when a $5 spread that cost 400 became worth about 300, I would immediately sell it. This was assuming that if each $5 spread cost $4 and that âmostâ of the spreads would hit $5 before it hit$3 (for a $100 loss per spread). Iâm now sure this was flawed thinking (although it seemed to work).
My new approach is to avoid sectors I donât have a lot of confidence in. And to hold as long as the prospects for a price recovery within my timeframe seems solid. And to take maximum advantage of dips in these sectors.
Iâve demonstrated my willingness often in this journal to take losses (large or small) when I no longer had confidence in a stock. Of course, the stronger your conviction to hold on to a wounded spread, the more risk you take on if you are proven wrong. This is where I am now with my portfolio, holding on to some risky positions out of conviction, mostly.
There are exception, like TIE, X. These are a little speculative in my view. Iâm hoping for a good day to sell the TIE (yesterday was one such day, but I missed it â I could have taken a 250 hit but now Iâm looking at 400 hit.). X just reported earnings and stock surged $20, and my spreads are now good, but I donât have confidence X can hold the price till October. Iâm also starting to lose some confidence in natural gas, it is not recovering like I thought it would.
Yes Iâm rambling. Would like to think there is a magic bullet PUT protection strategy that I will uncover soon
***
About diversification: It is a second choice method of stock selection IMO. First choice is selecting a strong sector. Iâve found, in my limited experience, that selecting stocks by screening or by analystâs reports is a difficult path. First of all, selecting companies in diverse industries based on fundamental analysis gives you a large pile of prospects that only produce a few candidates that have the option interest to allow the DITM strategy to be implemented. Then you likely do not understand the company well enough so you are totally reliant on other people. Technical analysis seems to be insufficient to help in stock selection for 4 to 9 months out. So it is a crapshoot. We listen to Cramerâs stories or some other guru opinion and throw our money at them.
I used to be diversified. Works great in a bull market. Works great if there is the magic bullet put protection to back it up. Works great right up till the time when it doesnât, and you have no idea whether to hold a spread or take small losses, or throw more money into corrective measures. All you have to rely on is idiot analysts.
Iâm hoping that the idiots I listen to (and believe) are better than your idiots, and are correct in their story that the positions I hold are correct. Then I rely heavily on the DITM strategy to give me enough extra protection to get by.
About hedging with puts on the indexes â Most of my positions are often contrary to the indexes to some extent. I think for any puts I buy to be effective, they should be in the stocks Iâm in. Will listen to contrary opinion with reasons.
BTW: The reasons I like a DITM BULL vertical spread apply almost equally to DITM BEAR vertical spreads. The word âalmostâ is a big discussion in itself. But the fact of having a bear vertical very far away from the money is theoretically appealing for the same reasons of safety and yield.
For the record, since Iâm used to calls ,not puts - For an $80 stock, a 50 call in ITM. Is a 50 put ITM or OTM?
***
So DITM vertical spreads is the topic of this journal, and others who offer advice or interest in the subject are more than welcome to post..
No trades today.
New low for my liquidation value of my account at 179K.
Now my risky positions number 14.
I mentioned before that (by observation) when volatility increases and stocks tank, the spreads obviously are worth less, and cost less when buying. So I was able to make some nice spread buys today in several accounts that still had cash. In my opinion I have 14 high risk positions and the rest are low risk, however, since my liquidation value is low, ALL of my spreads are more risky than say two days ago. That just the way this strategy works, or at least has in the past.
Iâm not really worried yet. Todayâs market action was confused and directionless. We have seen it before. Oil and natgas went up but most related stocks went down. CNX has dumped and threatened my spreads, evidently because of dumb management moves on futures selling of coal, but could go either way. Iâm surprised at the large drop, but you have to live with these swings when you go with high P/E stocks like CNX.
This weekend Iâll get my usual fix of market analysis and Iâll be ready for Monday with more or less confidence in my positions, and Iâll trade accordingly as needed.
Still working on put protection schemes for this strategy, but no progress yet.
******
Thanks to Nanook!!!
Ath1 â Yes I keep GLD long and trade off the margin. (See my first post.)
****
Good weekend to all.
New low for my liquidation value of my account at 179K.
Now my risky positions number 14.
I mentioned before that (by observation) when volatility increases and stocks tank, the spreads obviously are worth less, and cost less when buying. So I was able to make some nice spread buys today in several accounts that still had cash. In my opinion I have 14 high risk positions and the rest are low risk, however, since my liquidation value is low, ALL of my spreads are more risky than say two days ago. That just the way this strategy works, or at least has in the past.
Iâm not really worried yet. Todayâs market action was confused and directionless. We have seen it before. Oil and natgas went up but most related stocks went down. CNX has dumped and threatened my spreads, evidently because of dumb management moves on futures selling of coal, but could go either way. Iâm surprised at the large drop, but you have to live with these swings when you go with high P/E stocks like CNX.
This weekend Iâll get my usual fix of market analysis and Iâll be ready for Monday with more or less confidence in my positions, and Iâll trade accordingly as needed.
Still working on put protection schemes for this strategy, but no progress yet.
******
Thanks to Nanook!!!
Ath1 â Yes I keep GLD long and trade off the margin. (See my first post.)
****
Good weekend to all.
For the record, since Iâm used to calls ,not puts - For an $80 stock, a 50 call in ITM. Is a 50 put ITM or OTM?
great debate on insurance.....i have some thoughts that are closely aligned with yours. but the reasoning for posting.
simply:
iitm puts are higher than the underlying
in the money calls are lower than the underlying
cheers
john
great debate on insurance.....i have some thoughts that are closely aligned with yours. but the reasoning for posting.
simply:
iitm puts are higher than the underlying
in the money calls are lower than the underlying
cheers
john