Consequences Of The BP Gulf Oil Spill

[Hook N. Sinker]

In another thread (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=200888) we list some companies that might be involved in the BP Gulf oil spill cleanup activity.

In this thread let's consider other trading related consequences of the BP Gulf oil spill.

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

A positive divergence in natural gas futures price graphs (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=200888&perpage=6&pagenumber=3) might signal a preference of gas over oil.

I am studying some ETF's to explore the natural gas uptrend idea. I interpret these charts as natural gas reserves stocks might be a bullish case; gas utility companies and coal price values do not appear to me to be rallying much.

XLU (Natural Gas Utility ETF) TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 54.17% OF TOTAL ASSETS)

Company Symbol % Assets
Exelon Corporation Common Stock EXC 7.70
Southern Company (The) Common S SO 7.59
Dominion Resources, Inc. Common D 6.71
NEXTERA ENERGY INC FPL 5.76
Duke Energy Corporation (Holdin DUK 5.42
American Electric Power Company AEP 4.41
Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Comm PCG 4.38
Public Service Enterprise Group PEG 4.35
Entergy Corporation Common Stoc ETR 4.12
FirstEnergy Corporation Common FE 3.73

KOL (Coal ETF) TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 64.92% OF TOTAL ASSETS)

Company Symbol % Assets
Alpha Natural Resources, inc. c ANR 8.07
Peabody Energy Corporation Comm BTU 7.81
01088 7.74
Alpha Natural Resources, inc. c ANR 7.59
01898 7.50
CONSOL Energy Inc. Common Stock CNX 6.72
01171 5.73
Walter Energy, Inc. Common Stoc WLT 4.82
Joy Global Inc. JOYG 4.51
Bucyrus International, Inc. BUCY 4.43

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2865223 \img>

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

I found this graph of continuous natural gas futures prices. I interpret the long term trend as downward.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2865231 \img>

 

[Hook N. Sinker]

Suppose a hurricane - or maybe just a big storm - appears in the Gulf Of Mexico. A storm might whip up the mixture of oil, tar and water and blow it inland. If there is lightning does the oil ignite, get extinguished by rain and produce lots of black smoke? What happens to farm products if they are coated with oil and tar smoke? Does FDA or CFTC have standards that apply to smoke tainted grain, cotton and livestock? What of the human healthcare issues - allergy, respiratory problems. There might be millions of people living along the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2865288 \img>