confirmation before placing a trade (not pulling the trigger)

W

Wallace

"I think we all strive to minimize the level of uncertainty around our analysis
but in the end it's a futile quest.
Once we embrace it, we look at markets with a new perspective and horizon.
When i started trading i was looking for

* confirmation before placing a trade *

nowadays i know this confirmation element is not necessary, and can even be detrimental.
It has changed the way i look at things, even my own strategy.
When you no longer need 'confirmation'
because you know the uncertainty will always be present
you become free to look at price action in a different way and simplify your approach."

by 'trendisyourfriend' (my editing)
http://www.bigmiketrading.com/psych...ndrew-menaker-trading-psychology-webinar.html


thought the above in the singular catergory of excellent practical observation

but, how do we 'embrace uncertainty' , in order to trade freely ?
 
The carefree state of mind comes from knowing beyond a reasonable doubt that your trading plan, if followed, gives you a statistical advantage when applied to a series of trades over X time period. If you don't know that, then do the research and testing necessary to know that. That's as close to "certainty" as you'll get.

The only "confirmation" needed to pull the trigger is the absolute belief in Mark Douglas' Five Fundamental Truths:

Anything can happen.

You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next.

There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge.

An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over another.

Every moment in the market is unique.

Lotsa good stuff here:

http://www.tischendorf.com/2010/12/12/mark-douglas-video-interview-trading-psychology-quotes/
 
Quote from NoDoji:

The carefree state of mind comes from knowing beyond a reasonable doubt that your trading plan, if followed, gives you a statistical advantage when applied to a series of trades over X time period. If you don't know that, then do the research and testing necessary to know that. That's as close to "certainty" as you'll get.

The only "confirmation" needed to pull the trigger is the absolute belief in Mark Douglas' Five Fundamental Truths:

Anything can happen.

You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next.

There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge.

An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over another.

Every moment in the market is unique.

Lotsa good stuff here:

http://www.tischendorf.com/2010/12/12/mark-douglas-video-interview-trading-psychology-quotes/
More...
+1
 
NoDoji is one of my favorite posters here, so ND, don't take this personally. (ND, this is xxxskier)

I wish I could say that in my own trading I have found that solid back-testing and a solid plan gives me a 'carefree state of mind" as Mark Douglas and some others write about. Maybe for ND it does, but I have found another way to be okay with uncertainty. I'm not sure I actually have come to the point of 'embracing' it, but I've learned to be okay with it, most of the time.

I've tried a lot of things to gain confidence, including back-test stats and a solid plan, but the confidence I needed to trade my method did not come from stats generated from back-testing or having a practical but well-developed plan. What I had to do to get the confidence I needed to deal with the uncertainty was pretty involved and I'm not gonna explain it here. PM me if interested.



**I make money trading. Check the old P&L thread back in 2009 or 2010 for xxxskier.....my old name. Over the years I've moved further away from ET and come here so infrequently that I forgot my old password and had to create the syntrader ID last year.

Quote from NoDoji:

The carefree state of mind comes from knowing beyond a reasonable doubt that your trading plan, if followed, gives you a statistical advantage when applied to a series of trades over X time period. If you don't know that, then do the research and testing necessary to know that. That's as close to "certainty" as you'll get.

The only "confirmation" needed to pull the trigger is the absolute belief in Mark Douglas' Five Fundamental Truths:

Anything can happen.

You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next.

There is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge.

An edge is just the greater probability of one thing happening over another.

Every moment in the market is unique.

Lotsa good stuff here:

http://www.tischendorf.com/2010/12/12/mark-douglas-video-interview-trading-psychology-quotes/
More...
 
Quote from Wallace:

"I think we all strive to minimize the level of uncertainty around our analysis
but in the end it's a futile quest.
Once we embrace it, we look at markets with a new perspective and horizon.
When i started trading i was looking for

* confirmation before placing a trade *

nowadays i know this confirmation element is not necessary, and can even be detrimental.
It has changed the way i look at things, even my own strategy.
When you no longer need 'confirmation'
because you know the uncertainty will always be present
you become free to look at price action in a different way and simplify your approach."

by 'trendisyourfriend' (my editing)
http://www.bigmiketrading.com/psych...ndrew-menaker-trading-psychology-webinar.html


thought the above in the singular catergory of excellent practical observation

but, how do we 'embrace uncertainty' , in order to trade freely ?
More...


Some use a random entry method, a coin flip for example.
 
XX,

I'd like to hear about it..., but if the answer is no.., I respect that... and you Sir

RN



Quote from syntrader:

NoDoji is one of my favorite posters here, so ND, don't take this personally. (ND, this is xxxskier)

I wish I could say that in my own trading I have found that solid back-testing and a solid plan gives me a 'carefree state of mind" as Mark Douglas and some others write about. Maybe for ND it does, but I have found another way to be okay with uncertainty. I'm not sure I actually have come to the point of 'embracing' it, but I've learned to be okay with it, most of the time.

I've tried a lot of things to gain confidence, including back-test stats and a solid plan, but the confidence I needed to trade my method did not come from stats generated from back-testing or having a practical but well-developed plan. What I had to do to get the confidence I needed to deal with the uncertainty was pretty involved and I'm not gonna explain it here. PM me if interested.



**I make money trading. Check the old P&L thread back in 2009 or 2010 for xxxskier.....my old name. Over the years I've moved further away from ET and come here so infrequently that I forgot my old password and had to create the syntrader ID last year.
More...
 
I like 'You can make money without knowing what is going to happen next.'

syntrader - xxxskier, I'll add my voice to Redneck's and request you post
"What I had to do to get the confidence I needed to deal with the uncertainty"
 
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