Commodity Trading Journal

I'm still groping around this forum and trying to find the best way to post in an orderly fashion. Unfortunately, this forum doesn't allow tags, or a sticky at the top of the thread.

I think it is probably meaningful to post a screenshot occasionally, although I don't want to inadvertently post my identity or really want to elaborate on my positions (to novice traders, a bit of knowledge is more hazardous than no knowledge)

I think things will get more orderly over the next months, so I won't rush it.


Current%2520Value%2520and%2520Position.PNG
 
Current Value:

US$93825.04x1.26228 = S$118,433.47



China reported its largest trade deficit in 22 years over the weekend. Commodities - Oil, Gold, Copper and stocks in Asia are underpressure. Ironically, this was what politicians and economists in the West have wanted, but probably not in this way.

The dark clouds in Europe are still lingering, and analysts are still talking about "kicking the can down the road". I am reasonably confident that Europe can solve its problems, so in the coming months, I will place my bets that way.
 
Current Value:

US$93,751.02x1.25654 = 117,801.90


Commentary:

There has been a bit more weakness from the fall out since last week - I may have been too hasty in my long NG. China's deficit issues are also taking a toil on my long HG positions.

There's just the constant chatter of bloomberg and cnbc today, my ears didn't pick out anything particular of interest to me.
 
Current Value:

US$93492.42x1.26319 = US$118,098.69


Commentary:

More weakness in the markets with Wen Jiabao in his closing speech confirming the slowing Chinese economy, presenting me with a dent in an otherwise improving Current Value. It must be a heart attack inducing period for short term traders - with good news at NY time and not so good news in Asia time, and then a flip flop in Europe!
 
Current Value:

US$92436.49x1.26643 = S$117,064.34


Commentary:

The Current Value is a pretty disgusting sight, and I'm in an unenviable position to bet against the lemmings who believe China is in a hard landing. Thanks to Wen Jiabao and his last hurrah speech.

Nevertheless, down some 2% from the peak last Friday, I have been further away from shore.
 
Current Value:

US$91939.98x1.26146 = S$115,977.35


Commentary:

I've been out for a business trip today looking at a solar manufacturing company, and came back noticing further weakness. I'll be re-looking at my strategy over the weekend.
 
Current Value (Friday Close):

US$92477.67x1.25751=S$116,291.59


Commentary:

Not much to comment, but given the fall since last week, I'll be reviewing my strategy over the weekend. I doubt there will be any or much change though.


Others:

On the 'other job' front, It has been an exhausting week for me, many deals are coming to fruition, after months of marketing. I'm pretty interested with the relatively straightforward solar PV technology and reviewed the new manufacturing lines yesterday.

I will be on the road advising a national petrochemical company next week, but I will *try to* update this journal daily at end of day still.

Running about this way is taking its toll on my health.
 
Current Value:
US$92700.76x1.25866 = S$116,678.74


Commentary:
None. No time to read the news today.

I reviewed my strategy over the weekends. No changes needed. Technicals and fundamentals making sense for one of the commodities, I will probably put through that trade tonight.


Others:
Since flying up to this city last night, I've been full time up and running in meetings for a kickoff with 10 people on the other side of the table representing the client. And then a dinner afterwards. Too busy, I want to go for a swim now, hope the pool is not too crowded! VP coming over tonight and Analyst coming tomorrow night - need to brief them on what I need them to do.
 
Current Value:
US$92582.12x1.26304=S$116,934.92


Commentary:
The markets, both commodity and stocks are weakening as bulls take a rest. But this is a short term situation, with the trend still on the up.

What's interesting is the idea that F1 could be IPO-ed. I guess there will be a buyer for anything.


Others:
Going out for a quick walk outside the hotel. Still freezing, but I like the cool air and the hustle of this city.
 
Current Value:

US$92191.25x1.2650=S$116,621.93


Commentary:

Perception of weakening Chinese economy is still hanging over commodities, so until there is clarity on this, there will not be much upside. Nevertheless, my position is to ride this weakness.


Others:

Too busy nowadays, more time on the road up north to the deserts next week. I may take a day or three from this journal and let my positions auto run.
 
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