(Commodity Futures Section) - Fundamentals - Historical case studies / Future macro-themes sources

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wlnd

Hi Commodity Traders,

Where can we learn fundamentals on commodities? this could be through learning historical case studies, like how agricultural farmers use hedges / sources of the world supply of wheat / understanding the cost of carry in specific products that cause gaps across different contract months

am also seeking good sources which attempt to understand future/current macro trends

as of now, I'm a flashlight part-time trader, with my eyes too focused on the ground, looking out for rocks, fallen branches / obstacles. trading off chart patterns. with an understanding of fundamentals in commodities, I'm looking for a beacon of light, as a destination. to learn to hold for big moves, if & when they come



Any help is much appreciated!
 
Use your flashlite on upper right corner where it says "search" and get tons of answers plus use bing or google your way for information, it not like we still using Britannica's.
 
Handle123 said:
Use your flashlite on upper right corner where it says "search" and get tons of answers plus use bing or google your way for information, it not like we still using Britannica's.
More...

lol.. am hoping to look for "seasoned" answers, backed by experience that says; wished I knew these things x years ago. there are definitely many answers by search, but TOO many that are noise
 
LOL I been trading for forty years in stocks and 33 years in commodities, so guessing I am seasoned. I started long ago with funnie mentals, COT(they actually started in 1929). When price is low, in majority of commodities the commercials are adding to longs and opposite for shorts, but the reports are 2 weeks late. I trade very very long term commodities as trade more like a commercial, you never see bunch of them to go out of business. And I would never trust foreign countries to give correct documents. I think it is sugar and one other market, maybe platinum where "normal" is opposite.

Ever hear that trading is an individual sport? Most use COT as confirming indicator, I rather settle with well back tested models, backtest at least 30 years of daily data to get good idea of probabilities of future. And yes, I have gone to seminars on COT, so I do know how to read what they offer, but it is 2 weeks late, my systems will already have me in the trades.

Plus, do much spreading as well, very fun programming own charting to show high/low/last on intraday and daily, so you end up for few years having something most retail don't have, spread trading is usually just line on close.

You looking for the "nuances" but those you most likely have to discover yourself.

Good luck-seasoned trader
ROFLMAO
 
Handle123 said:
LOL I been trading for forty years in stocks and 33 years in commodities, so guessing I am seasoned. I started long ago with funnie mentals, COT(they actually started in 1929). When price is low, in majority of commodities the commercials are adding to longs and opposite for shorts, but the reports are 2 weeks late. I trade very very long term commodities as trade more like a commercial, you never see bunch of them to go out of business. And I would never trust foreign countries to give correct documents. I think it is sugar and one other market, maybe platinum where "normal" is opposite.

Ever hear that trading is an individual sport? Most use COT as confirming indicator, I rather settle with well back tested models, backtest at least 30 years of daily data to get good idea of probabilities of future. And yes, I have gone to seminars on COT, so I do know how to read what they offer, but it is 2 weeks late, my systems will already have me in the trades.

Plus, do much spreading as well, very fun programming own charting to show high/low/last on intraday and daily, so you end up for few years having something most retail don't have, spread trading is usually just line on close.

You looking for the "nuances" but those you most likely have to discover yourself.

Good luck-seasoned trader
ROFLMAO
More...

Much appreciated Handle123!

in truth, wasn't expecting many answers. just small insights, such as the one you offered on trading with commercials on COT

"I trade very very long term commodities as trade more like a commercial, you never see bunch of them to go out of business"

if one never asks, one will never know. I see it as no loss to ask & be judged to be lazy, even though I see myself as not ;p. definitely googled, & read thru too much that is written with bias. here, I asked & I was answered

such an insight for example may have taken you, a seasoned trader, x number of years to discover on your journey, but the mere mention of it can change a new trader's core idea of how he's looking to shape his foundational approach as a new entrant to commod trading. I know this well, as I have had no real mentors, & had to stumble with my flashlight for years before I realised all I needed to be successful in trading, was to change my mindset. if only I could show the me x years ago, & save him x years

such is the often underestimated power of basic ideas. this may or may not be the "beacon of light". it does sound something straightforward that I can explain to my grandma. I'd definitely give it a good go ;)
 
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