Commodities

wheat.jpg
 
since 2016, wheat futures have been moving rather sluggishly.


around 2007 to 2012, its movement was huge.

Perhaps wheat farmers / traders can better explain what happened.
 
Expectations of higher inflation due to massive stimulus & money printing, which this time (As opposed to 2008/2009) went directly to corporates and consumers rather than financial institutions.

This is what mainly drove Gold, Silver & Copper rallies and is driving those Agris rallies in the last couple of weeks. Agris are considered the leaders in the food commodities complex. I would expect more rallies to come and also other commodities will catch the same flu sooner or later.
 
Everybody says inflation is dead, and the FED wants inflation >2.00%, as if that should be so very difficult with an exploding Money supply.
Is everybody on the wrong side of this trade?

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Update on the WEAT chart. It's up 5% in a few weeks.
Not that I am saying anything, WOW look at that, look at that ...
A lot of stuff moves 5% in few weeks.
But I am just thinking back, I used to be Series 7 (April, 1982), and would look through the Mansfield chart book looking for saucer patterns to buy. Problem was, most of them were on the verge of bankruptcy. In which case the trade wouldn't work.

And then there were saucers that didn't go bankrupt for years, but the trade had no power.
For example Eastman Kodak. They were in the early stages of being eclipsed by a new business paradigm (digital photos).
They were missing the boat, and didn't even think about getting a ticket.

WEAT is commodity tracker ETF,
1) has no balance sheet and is not going bankrupt, ever
2) Has no replacement, that anybody who is alive is contemplating (same with CORN and other AGS like that).
Some people allege that crude oil is going away, eclipsed by lithium batteries. Jury is still out on that.
Nobody is saying anything like that about basic AGs.

Just wondering why this is such a "yawner" for sharp folks who are trading the markets.
What am I missing??
 

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Everybody says inflation is dead, and the FED wants inflation >2.00%, as if that should be so very difficult with an exploding Money supply.
Is everybody on the wrong side of this trade?

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You saw it before most.
Except me maybe. ;)

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A picture says a 1000 words.

Since where we are heading still remains completely unknown, and earnings for both the current quarter and several quarters going forward will be adjusted down by at least 25%, realistically we haven't reached the bottom. That said, large up-spikes will be the norm on the way to a bottom.

The Fed is now being said to have "an infinite supply of money". That's the buzz-phrase today. Well, I suppose that's true, but the next shoe to drop when we pull through Corona will be inflation.

For the long term real-estate is the place to be... but its going to have to be selective.

There will still be plenty of individuals with piles of money, that said I would still avoid high dollar homes, and on the lower end, no one with money wants to be a slum lord. Therefore, the focus as an individual real-estate investor imo... is buying large tracts of land. That's where the money will be in real-estate going forward.

For an investment for people who can't afford that, I think once again, and I have been saying this now for a few years here... the multi-family REITS should emerge from this crisis stronger than ever as home-ownership for many many areas of this country will be an incredible challenge for a large percentage of Millennial's.

If you've got money... buy large land tracts. Still pricey, but they're as cheap as they'll ever be I suspect. Your grandkids will thank you. jmho
-vz

Even this one before anyone was talking about it:

Talked to a buddy of mine the other day, pretty decent sized developer of residential and some light commercial; he told me prices are off the charts across the board. Land, material, labor, permitting, fuel. Everything. Smart cat this one, he's a good friend and I respect how valuable his time is so I never pick his brain as much as I'd like to, but he knows what's going on. IMO, probably better than the 'experts' at the St. Louis Fed.


Now I'm about a million miles from being considered well versed on anything macro-economic, so maybe I'm wrong here, but I like to think I have walking around sense.

A picture says a 1000 words, and maybe this one applies too broad of a brush-stroke, and maybe I am missing something in regards to the ivory-tower definition of inflation, but I always thought inflation is when prices go up.

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You don't need a weather-man to know which way the wind is blowing.

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