What we are seeing now in commodities, especially in oil, is a reversion to true value. Modern civilization needs commodities to survive, it doesn't need Iphones or Blackberries. It doesn't need Vista or Quad core processors. It needs oil, corn, wheat, copper, etc. There is a very high price that society is willing to pay for transportation and energy.
Commodities are still too cheap. There is a reversion to true value going on. This process will take several years. We're maybe in the 3rd or 4th inning. This is not a bubble. A bubble is paying a higher price for something than its intrinsic value. Like tech stocks in the tech mania, like tulips in Holland, like bank stocks a year ago. People are still driving out there, demand is still very healthy at $134/barrel. That tells me the price is still too low. There are no real substitutes for oil, solar powered cars go 10 mph, ethanol is barely net positive energy wise producing it, natural gas is expensive and shrinking in supply, and electricity powered cars are weak and expensive, they will not power trucks.
Commodities are still too cheap. There is a reversion to true value going on. This process will take several years. We're maybe in the 3rd or 4th inning. This is not a bubble. A bubble is paying a higher price for something than its intrinsic value. Like tech stocks in the tech mania, like tulips in Holland, like bank stocks a year ago. People are still driving out there, demand is still very healthy at $134/barrel. That tells me the price is still too low. There are no real substitutes for oil, solar powered cars go 10 mph, ethanol is barely net positive energy wise producing it, natural gas is expensive and shrinking in supply, and electricity powered cars are weak and expensive, they will not power trucks.