Commodities: up or down lumber steel gold?

KCalhoun

KCalhoun

Any thoughts on strategies to capitalize I'm the next move in commodities? Lately we've had a lot of bearish pressure in lumber steel copper home builders and gold, for example.... see WOOD X FCX XHB GDX

They've all pulled back quite a bit recently and if the market rebounds after this upcoming drop they may also bounce. It would however, be nice to know any inverse ETFs for those sectors?
 
KCalhoun said:
Any thoughts on strategies to capitalize I'm the next move in commodities? Lately we've had a lot of bearish pressure in lumber steel copper home builders and gold, for example.... see WOOD X FCX XHB GDX

They've all pulled back quite a bit recently and if the market rebounds after this upcoming drop they may also bounce. It would however, be nice to know any inverse ETFs for those sectors?
More...

I play Oil producers long and everything else is more of a range bound trade for now. Copper I won't put any new money into it until a clear floor is established. The active gold miners actually can be day traded based off Gold price. I keep an eye on Silver and Nat Gas because there is potential upside moves and the stocks are fairly well behaved in these areas. I like three Nat Gas firms regardless ( Birchcliff, Arc Resources, Crew Energy ) but adjust my positions frequently to reflect daily moves.
 
themickey said:
Aaaahhh, you mean shorting hard commodities??
That's like shorting a bull market.
Copper warehouse levels falling, shortage of mining employees, freight rates rising, EV coming on, and you short!
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Copper is a great story once we get beyond the short term weakness. Signs we may be doing so today with US$ weaker again and markets generally positive. Cdn energy stocks had a huge day, taking out a lot of 52 week highs.
 
themickey said:
Aaaahhh, you mean shorting hard commodities??
That's like shorting a bull market.
Copper warehouse levels falling, shortage of mining employees, freight rates rising, EV coming on, and you short!
More...

We all have different trading models, I been doing my long term commodity method since 1992, I have very low winning percentages cause system shorts Bull and goes Long Bear markets. But I hedge my opening entries, hedge reversal patterns of existing open positions and system hedges the hedges. System does not have trailing stops so it goes for large profits.

Been shorting Indexes for approx 5 years, paid off last year.

Staying short Lumber, metals, most of grains, Indexes, long feeders, cattle, short pigs, short dollar/long most other currencies, short financials. Always looking to add to positions on deep retracements.

Certainly not system for faint of heart, has huge drawdowns, when reversals happen without chart patterns that would trigger open profit hedges.
This beats staring at screens all day scaling nickels.
 
Handle123 said:
We all have different trading models, I been doing my long term commodity method since 1992, I have very low winning percentages cause system shorts Bull and goes Long Bear markets. But I hedge my opening entries, hedge reversal patterns of existing open positions and system hedges the hedges. System does not have trailing stops so it goes for large profits.

Been shorting Indexes for approx 5 years, paid off last year.

Staying short Lumber, metals, most of grains, Indexes, long feeders, cattle, short pigs, short dollar/long most other currencies, short financials. Always looking to add to positions on deep retracements.

Certainly not system for faint of heart, has huge drawdowns, when reversals happen without chart patterns that would trigger open profit hedges.
This beats staring at screens all day scaling nickels.
More...

Your post reminded me of something I stumbled on a few years ago. The system described here trades commodities making multi-year highs or lows.

https://startupbros.com/make-lose-2000000-day-trading-system-story
 
Ed48 said:
Your post reminded me of something I stumbled on a few years ago. The system described here trades commodities making multi-year highs or lows....
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Actually, mine is similar but very different as I have learned good deal on hedging. The most risky part of trade is entry and since I have very low winning percentages, had to work at not losing my account when had to keep selling till highs arrive like Index futures. Had to keep buying energies till lows occurred last year. Also, add on entries are often multiple tries and hedged. Have added ways to hedge when certain charting patterns happen like small breaks or head and shoulders among others when corrections should happen. Like crude oil made Head and Shoulders pattern so that gets hedged to secure open profits and today energies went low enough to add to long position/hedged. Today reversed on Lumber but have to hedge using stock options, nice trade from near the highs.

This method is much like playing video poker and waiting for Royal Flush. Huge drawdowns sometimes when corrections occur without making a known pattern. Had to learn how to trade spreads cause some markets simply stay at highs/lows for years. I have become numb trading this method but works for me.
 
themickey said:
Aaaahhh, you mean shorting hard commodities??
That's like shorting a bull market.
Copper warehouse levels falling, shortage of mining employees, freight rates rising, EV coming on, and you short!
More...

Yep, shorted Bull market in Indexes, reversed long in Lumber/hedged with stock options, bought energies/hedges add ons.

Not to say at all these positions won't be stopped out, but took small partial profits on Indexes and all have breakend stops.

I have no crystal ball if highs are in, got to go with the flow. My way of trading does not make sense to 99% of traders, but producers seem to do well.

Starbucks time
 
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