Commodities as inflation hedge
- Thread starter Lojanica
- Start date
Quote from coolweb:
No tells yet on UNG, Its hitting lows, but it could hit lower..
Waiting for some tells would be safer.
I do agree UNG is looking very cheap, but it looked very cheap @ $20..
and $15 ..
and $10
Wait for the turn.
A turn would be Price > $11
Agreed but that not how I trade. I like to be punished a little now and then.
I'm in but my time horizon is Looooong!!!
Quote from coolweb:
No tells yet on UNG, Its hitting lows, but it could hit lower..
Waiting for some tells would be safer.
I do agree UNG is looking very cheap, but it looked very cheap @ $20..
and $15 ..
and $10
Wait for the turn.
A turn would be Price > $11
The "tell" is we made a new low on NO VOLUME. Not alot of selling. I would like to see a blow off day with huge volume and price reversal but I'll assume there is a floor under NG as this is gonna be a major fuel source for North America for the next 100 years.
MACROtrend.
I'll buy more as it drops and we we get the blow-off reversal day sweet!!!
I like the idea of inflation hedging trough commodities.
Only problem with them is the lack of visibility what drives most of these markets fundamentally.
If banks are bankrupt or apear so, people turn to gold.
That I understand.
How can I distinguish the same mechanisms say in the soybean market.
I can't.
Tricky.
Only problem with them is the lack of visibility what drives most of these markets fundamentally.
If banks are bankrupt or apear so, people turn to gold.
That I understand.
How can I distinguish the same mechanisms say in the soybean market.
I can't.
Tricky.
I like the idea, but natural gas is almost impossible to invest in over the long term because of the negative roll yield. Look at the cash price, it isn't that cheap.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...rs=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=
Compare that chart to UNG (or rolling your own futures) and you see what I mean. UNG is only fit for trading.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...rs=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=
Compare that chart to UNG (or rolling your own futures) and you see what I mean. UNG is only fit for trading.
Thank you. That's what I thought. Oh well there is zero chance we won't roll through today's spike down.
I suppose you need to invest in the suppliers but it's too early for that insofar as a shakeout is in the making as smaller producers are unable to support operations with price this low. In the long run a supply shock will occur.
I suppose you need to invest in the suppliers but it's too early for that insofar as a shakeout is in the making as smaller producers are unable to support operations with price this low. In the long run a supply shock will occur.