Commmodities Bubble

[gkishot]

Here is another good article that holds a totally opposite view. Go figure.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/new...1_CAS846017_RTRUKOC_0_MARKETS-GOLD-PRICES.xml

 

[lakeside trader]

Anyone noticed that the run in commodities started in earnest last year just when Jim Rogers book came out ? People have been piling in like sheeps ever since

 

[TGM]

Quote from lakeside trader:

Anyone noticed that the run in commodities started in earnest last year just when Jim Rogers book came out ? People have been piling in like sheeps ever since

I believe there will be a big setback and that is when I will really pile in.

Unless you think they are going to stop printing dollars or that there will be a radical repricing overnight ---then there is nothing to stand in the way of a big commodity bull market. This one should continue until there is a replacement for the dollar and that is a long way off IMO.

It is also just supply and demand in the case of some commodities like Oil.

 

[taodr]

Quote from TGM:

I believe there will be a big setback and that is when I will really pile in.

Unless you think they are going to stop printing dollars or that there will be a radical repricing overnight ---then there is nothing to stand in the way of a big commodity bull market. This one should continue until there is a replacement for the dollar and that is a long way off IMO.

It is also just supply and demand in the case of some commodities like Oil.

GOLD....http://www.safehaven.com/article-5062.htm

 

[sprstpd]

Quote from Johnny Walker:

I strongly recommend you jump into the futures, you don't necessarily have to use tons of leverage or a short time frame. I currently am waiting for Dec Corn to ease a bit before I purchase this contract which I will hold until the end of the year.

Is it possible to trade any agricultural futures contracts through IB? It appears they offer the Electronic (night) contracts, but not the floor (day) contracts? Am I incorrect?

On the front page of the CBOT it says the agricultural Electronic contracts will be traded during the day starting August 1, 2006. If I restrict myself to IB, will I have to wait til then to trade these contracts?

It appears the Rogers Commodity Index (RCI) futures contract at the CME is not tradable at IB either.

 

[TGM]

Everyone should start complaining to IB so they will add the RICI contract. It is supposedly on the list of 'things to do" for them.

IB sound off on the RICI.

 

[contango]

A commodity is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Duh! However, you can't argue with the market or the trend. I find a 49-day moving average trend is great for trading crude.

There's plenty of crude floating around but no-one can refine it because no new refineries were built while oil, gas and the crack spread margin was so low. Now some refineries are being built again and retrofitted it will take a few years for the crude price to settle down again.

For silver, gold, copper etc. new mines are being built but average grades are down and it's more expensive in general to mine these days. It's a cruel irony for the mining industry that when more supply finally returns to the market, the bull is exhausted. The industry then goes through a massive consolidation phase as the majors buy up all the smaller miners on the cheap.

 

[mokwit]

Interesting perspective on softs non participation here.

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060421-fri.html#anchor6

You can get an idea of how much of the fund flows are speculative as opposed to hedge/demand relaled everytime there is some kind of shock.

P.S The books on gold investing are making their way to the shelves just as the books on FX did (and tech investing did).