Comments on the "Bitcoin Black Paper" (Why Bitcoin is Worth Exactly 0)

Bitcoin as a store of value!
To me value is something people need. Do I really need Bitcoin? And what do I need it for?
It wasn't here a few years ago. It's technology and technology is changing so fast that I can't be assured that something new will not be developed tomorrow that will be superior to bitcoin.

As far as being a currency it doesn't seem to be much different than any other currency. I deal in Canadian dollars so the exchange rate varies from day to day. Not much but enough to make one aware of it if you are spending money in the US. Bitcoin seems to vary more like a third world country. Today at least I would rather take a contract to be paid on completion of the contract in Canadian dollars than in bitcoin.
 
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deaddog said:
Bitcoin seems to vary more like a third world country.
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Oh? BTC is actually the best performing investment of all time, ever, ever in terms of appreciation from launch day, so, not exactly like a 3rd world currency. More like a hot tech stock with actual earnings and big projected earnings.
 
I’ll tell you what man, just when I thought I couldn’t get more bullish about bitcoin I read this forum in my bullishness increases. So much dismissiveness without doing any work, it’s wild.

Extra credit for those that missed the greatest trade of all time but only look at the performance over the last year to make themselves feel better
 
ffs, Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme. It's not a great blockchain, either, but it's got cred, so it's valuable.
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment which claims market returns that do not exist to lure in future investors.
Bitcoin is just a distributed ledger entry that cannot be printed by any governments and cannot be confiscated without direct coercion. Sure, there are people making ridiculous claims about returns based on well, ridiculous past returns, but they aren't running Bitcoin as a fund. It's self-perpetuating.

This is an interesting article by Arthur Hayes (I know, I know, but he's actually got good analysis in his articles).
https://blog.bitmex.com/the-doom-loop/

He basically says the confiscation of Russian assets will lead to a loss of trust in Sovereign custodial accounts in in holding USD by sovereigns. Gold will be repatriated, but the physical nature and challenges of transporting it will make it less appealing than BTC, which is easy to transfer instantly.

Maybe it's wrong, but the perspective is worth checking out. The global monetary order is about to change - He's on point there.
 
That chart reminds of me of an important stat regarding Bitfuck (Dan Pena's term for it).

Let's assume you are the worst Bitfuck investor ever. You always save up your $, and then spend it each year at the WORST possible time. Right at the highest high of the year.

How long does it take (if possible) for the worst market-timer to break even?

In this scenario, stats show that making the worst of the worst mistakes, leaves you to still gain back your losses after just 3-years.

In that case, Bitfuck is starting to look 'idiot-proof' in a way. Naturally, past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial advice!
 
misterkel said:
He basically says the confiscation of Russian assets will lead to a loss of trust in Sovereign custodial accounts in in holding USD by sovereigns. Gold will be repatriated, but the physical nature and challenges of transporting it will make it less appealing than BTC, which is easy to transfer instantly.
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That's precisely the point I made earlier that will not happen. US Libertarians and anarchists scream bloody murder at the government run financial system and present BTC as the alternative. It's simply not understanding that powerful governments use their financial leverage, like on Russia today, to inflict economic pain on bad actors.
The US has used financial boycotts against the elite and governments of Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Sudan, Libya, South Africa and others over the last 50 years. It's not about to allow BTC and other cryptos circumvent their ability to do so. The only way for BTC to become mainstream is if government has the ability and (in democracies) the right to block transfers. Judging by its adoption in the mainstream financial system, that hurdle seems to have been overcome, as the Canadian government demonstrated recently.
We live in a world of concentrated wealth, some by unsavory actors. With their pooled resources they can easily create a BTC like system to evade any and all government controls and its exactly why there can never be an extra government financial system.
 
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