Comments on GBP/USD trade I entered.

[uninvited_guest]

Quote from late apex:

You've mentioned that your dealer's GBP/USD spread is 5 pips. Therefore, by placing this type of +/-10 trade, you are effectively making a very short-term bet on price action. A bet that, once your entry is triggered, cable will move 15 pips in your favor before it moves just 5 pips against you. Unless you can consistently achieve accuracy of over 75%, generally that's not the kind of trading strategy you want to pursue.

Further, given routine cable price action and sub-hourly volatility, achieving such high degree of accuracy on the shorter time frames is going to be a mission impossible, in my view.

By entering the trades during a quiet time to be executed once GBP/USD moved 25 pips I was hoping momentum would continue. Came very close, both legs achieved +7 pips before retracing and hitting the stops.

I figured a move of 10 pips to trigger the limit, not 15 pips, and a retrace of 5 pips to trigger the stops. But now that you mention it I think it is 15 pips.

Looking back on this trade the stops were set too tight, I have been stopped out before only to see my position go in my direction. I believe that this is a common problem with Forex trades. This was a good lesson for only $20.00

 

[late apex]

Quote from uninvited_guest:

I figured a move of 10 pips to trigger the limit, not 15 pips, and a retrace of 5 pips to trigger the stops.

No, it's +15 / -5, not +10 / -5. Let's look at your setup, from your 1st post.

Long at 1.7625 --> quote at the moment of entry is 1.7620 / 25.

Both stop loss and take profit are going short, so the bid (not ask) must reach that level.

SL at 1.7615 --> when hit, quote is 1.7615 / 20, or 5 pips below your entry.

TP at 1.7635 --> when hit, quote is 1.7635 / 40, or 15 pips above your entry.

Similar for your other bracket trade, the short entry.

I'd say both your stops and targets are way too tight... within the noise level.

 

[uninvited_guest]

Thanks late apex

I edited my last post just as you posted. And yes you are correct on the 15pips move, not 10 pips as I thought.

 

[fandelem]

I'll bite.

Ask yourself these questions

right before your next trade you post on here (I am dying to know your answers)

1) what made you decide your enter price? was it an indicator? a way the chart looked? describe it in WORDS. not a "gut feeling". gut feelings only work if you are a very seasoned trader. An example would be, "The bar pierced the top of the bollinger band and it looked like an opportune time to short"

2) what made you decide your stop price? just an arbitrary fixed number, like 10 pips? This might not work that well in the long run. A better example would be, "The support level was 10 pips lower"

3) what made you decide your target price? same type as #2

4) How many losses are you willing to take every day before stopping? Is there a limit?

5) Are you going to try the "home run" approach where you (strike out often) sell your losers quickly and hold on to your winners, or are you going to try to hit a lot of singles but rarely a home run? They both have their disadvantages and advantages, but you should really decide this at the start of the trading day...


Answering these questions after every trade and keeping a log of this is what makes you a stronger trader, in my opinion. If you can describe every trade then you are well ahead of the game. I have lost thousands of dollars in my earlier years because I tried to go with a "gut feeling" and end up getting lucky some times, but very unlucky the other times.

Just think about it this way: you are playing with real money. you might as well treat it as serious as you can.

I'm surprised I haven't read a ton of posts telling you to PAPER TRADE for months and months before you use real money. That seems to be the theme here. I personally think the best way you learn is to do it for real. Lose some money. Just make sure you have tried to do everything in your power to know WHY YOU LOST the money. When I started I started with $5000 and when the wire went through I basically wrote that money off as lost from the beginning. It's the only way to free yourself from worry about losing.


my two .02,


k.

Quote from uninvited_guest:

By entering the trades during a quiet time to be executed once GBP/USD moved 25 pips I was hoping for momentum would continue. Came very close, both legs achieved +7 pips before retracing.

I figured a move of 10 pips to trigger the limit, not 15 pips, and a retrace of 5 pips to trigger the stops.

This was a good lesson for only $20.00

 

[uninvited_guest]

Quote from fandelem:

Ask yourself these questions

right before your next trade:

1) what made you decide your enter price? was it an indicator? a way the chart looked? describe it in WORDS. not a "gut feeling". gut feelings only work if you are a very seasoned trader. An example would be, "The bar pierced the top of the bollinger band and it looked like an opportune time to short"

2) what made you decide your stop price? just an arbitrary fixed number, like 10 pips? This might not work that well in the long run. A better example would be, "The support level was 10 pips lower"

3) what made you decide your target price? same type as #2

4) How many losses are you willing to take every day before stopping? Is there a limit?


Answering these questions after every trade and keeping a log of this is what makes you a stronger trader, in my opinion. If you can describe every trade then you are well ahead of the game. I have lost thousands of dollars in my earlier years because I tried to go with a "gut feeling" and end up getting lucky some times, but very unlucky the other times.

Just think about it this way: you are playing with real money. you might as well treat it as serious as you can.

I'm surprised I haven't read a ton of posts telling you to PAPER TRADE for months and months before you use real money. That seems to be the theme here. I personally think the best way you learn is to do it for real. Lose some money. Just make sure you have tried to do everything in your power to know WHY YOU LOST the money. When I started I started with $5000 and when the wire went through I basically wrote that money off as lost from the beginning. It's the only way to free yourself from worry about losing.


my two .02,


k.


target

I did have a demo, but now I trade with a real account. With demos you trade differently there is no fear or greed.

This trade cost me only $20.00 and came VERY close to being profitable. Its the first time I tried a "strangle/straddle" type of trade.

It good to post this trade live to get feedback. I will be studying everything posted.

 

[fandelem]

But I, and probably everyone else, want to know what made you decide to enter the trade at this particular point in time. That is what my last post was in regards to.. Next time you post your live trade, can you just tell us what market conditions convinced you to do so?

Quote from uninvited_guest:

I did have a demo, but now I trade with a real account. With demos you trade differently there is no fear or greed.

This trade cost me only $20.00 and came VERY close to being profitable. Its the first time I tried a "strangle/straddle" type of trade.

It good to post this trade live to get feedback. I will be studying everything posted.

 

[uninvited_guest]

Quote from fandelem:

..... Next time you post your live trade, can you just tell us what market conditions convinced you to do so?

Oh yes...I though I mentioned that.

The reason I entered the trade was because the GBP/USD was trading sidways at 1.7600 for a few hours. I was hoping for a strong move in one direction and the momentum would carrry through and hit the limits.

I set both short/long entries at +25 pips thinking by then that the momentum would be strong enough. Both entries did make it close to the limits, but just couldn't get those extra few pips.

 

[fandelem]

So what were your support and resistance levels around 1.76 that you saw? What min chart were you looking at? What was the time frame, again? I like to pull up on the exact chart and see what you are seeing..

Quote from uninvited_guest:

Oh yes...I though I mentioned that.

The reason I entered the trade was because the GBP/USD was trading sidways at 1.7600 for a few hours. I was hoping for a strong move in one direction and the momentum would carrry through and hit the limits.

I set both short/long entries at +25 pips thinking by then that the momentum would be strong enough. Both entries did make it close to the limits, but just couldn't get those extra few pips.

 

[uninvited_guest]

Quote from fandelem:

So what were your support and resistance levels around 1.76 that you saw? What min chart were you looking at? What was the time frame, again? I like to pull up on the exact chart and see what you are seeing..

Support/Resistance was about +- 10 pips. My plan was to cancel one leg after the other limit was hit within a few hours. I only wanted the 10 pips ($10.00).

I entered at Sunday 6.27 pm EST and was hoping to have this trade finished by 10.00 pm EST. I was looking at the 1 hour chart through www.dailyfx.com

 

[illiquid]

Your price targets and stops were just way too tight for something based on an hourly chart. I don't think any support/resistance or even sideways movement can be relied upon within a 20 pip range, it's just noise really.