Nice analysis.
commentary on technical state of SPY
- Thread starter deronwagner
- Start date
Hmm... last night I wrote in one of the threads on this board that I was anticipating a breakout, probably to the upside. I put my money where my mouth was and scored 36.5 pts (with three ES contracts). I am really surprised that you don't know that what looks like a h&s one day may look the day after as a double bottom. Check it out today again. Do you still see a h&s formation?
I wonder how much I could get paid for a service that can predict major turning points in SP500 if you charge for your h&s service $49 bucks. My systems suggested a reversal on October 10th (the last major bottom), November 1st, November 7th (see charts) and on other days.
Well, maybe I should start thinking about it.
But I really liked your pictures...
wally_
Hi, Deron
Get your email. You get points in my book for putting your call out there AHEAD of time. As you said the call wasn't confirmed so you checked out and covered your position. "No harm, no foul," as Laker's announcer Chick Hearn used to say. From a fundamental point of view, it seems to me there are a lot of fund managers with tons of money to put to work that are afraid of missing another rally and they're looking for excuses to run this up more, even though in my mind the earnings/geopolitical realities/valuations don't support it. To me this is a "hope things get better, we're wishing they do, we'll pretend they're going to even without evidence" rally. Plus in news/earnings vacuums this can happen. Barring any real earnings and news people can fantasize all they want. Plus the selling ranks are depleted now.
He said in a bearish tone.
Get your email. You get points in my book for putting your call out there AHEAD of time. As you said the call wasn't confirmed so you checked out and covered your position. "No harm, no foul," as Laker's announcer Chick Hearn used to say. From a fundamental point of view, it seems to me there are a lot of fund managers with tons of money to put to work that are afraid of missing another rally and they're looking for excuses to run this up more, even though in my mind the earnings/geopolitical realities/valuations don't support it. To me this is a "hope things get better, we're wishing they do, we'll pretend they're going to even without evidence" rally. Plus in news/earnings vacuums this can happen. Barring any real earnings and news people can fantasize all they want. Plus the selling ranks are depleted now.
He said in a bearish tone.
Overtheline,
If you would like to know more, just drop me an email or visit our website. My email is deron@deronwagner.com.
Thanks,
Deron
If you would like to know more, just drop me an email or visit our website. My email is deron@deronwagner.com.
Thanks,
Deron
Hi BCE,
Thanks for your post. You bring up some interesting points about the fund managers and the mentality of the rally. While I tend to agree with you that this is a "we'll pretend this is going to get better without any evidence" rally, I don't let that stand in my way of trading the technicals as they present themselves. If we break out, we will certainly be looking to go long. But, in my opinion, there was not much of a technical reason to be long yesterday and the market was still in a trading range. Obviously, I was wrong and I have no problem admitting it.
Personally, I am not bearish or bullish and I am not holding any positions either direction. All I can do is trade the market the way I see it, stick to strict trigger prices to prevent sloppy entries, and use stops when I am wrong. By using this simple technique, along with being very selective about the trades I enter, I have been consistently profitable, so I will continue to use it.
All the best to you,
Deron
Thanks for your post. You bring up some interesting points about the fund managers and the mentality of the rally. While I tend to agree with you that this is a "we'll pretend this is going to get better without any evidence" rally, I don't let that stand in my way of trading the technicals as they present themselves. If we break out, we will certainly be looking to go long. But, in my opinion, there was not much of a technical reason to be long yesterday and the market was still in a trading range. Obviously, I was wrong and I have no problem admitting it.
Personally, I am not bearish or bullish and I am not holding any positions either direction. All I can do is trade the market the way I see it, stick to strict trigger prices to prevent sloppy entries, and use stops when I am wrong. By using this simple technique, along with being very selective about the trades I enter, I have been consistently profitable, so I will continue to use it.
All the best to you,
Deron
Quote from BCE:
Hi, Deron
Get your email. You get points in my book for putting your call out there AHEAD of time. As you said the call wasn't confirmed so you checked out and covered your position. "No harm, no foul," as Laker's announcer Chick Hearn used to say. From a fundamental point of view, it seems to me there are a lot of fund managers with tons of money to put to work that are afraid of missing another rally and they're looking for excuses to run this up more, even though in my mind the earnings/geopolitical realities/valuations don't support it. To me this is a "hope things get better, we're wishing they do, we'll pretend they're going to even without evidence" rally. Plus in news/earnings vacuums this can happen. Barring any real earnings and news people can fantasize all they want. Plus the selling ranks are depleted now.
He said in a bearish tone.