Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

- I think it's neither. I think it's going to be a flat Monday. What happened on Friday was purely a knee-jerk reaction. The market usually takes a breather after a knee-jerk movement to calm down and digest to plan its next move. That's my observation.

So I would be very careful with any volatility play. And if I really want to make a move, I wouldn't go long.

Told you it would be a flat day, as flat as an ironboard. This is what the market does nowadays. It's a huge move (relatively) and then it takes a breather the next day. It rarely has two huge-move days back-to-back.
 
Told you it would be a flat day, as flat as an ironboard. This is what the market does nowadays. It's a huge move (relatively) and then it takes a breather the next day. It rarely has two huge-move days back-to-back.
Yep. and the algo's have to let the dust settle and reposition for the next move to take the most money from the naive, ie.... 64% of the players near term.
Long term,17% more when that dust settles.
 
I was surprised by the Euro reaction. I thought it would collapse thru 0.9900 but it was actually higher, however the Yen got to 139 so it did collapse.

It's just a matter of time before the Euro & British Pound collapse and that will likely send markets in a tailspin.
 
SP500 Analysis

According to my analysis the SP500 should correct upwards on Monday 29th August 2022, these was a reversal cycle on the 28th August 2022. This is the chart and price level I was looking for on the SP500.
SP500 low 29 08 2022.png

My expectation is that that the next retrace will last for about 46 hours from the low made on Monday. At the moment it is too soon to calculate a price level but, as the SP500 comes into the time for the turn I will present a chart with the Gann arcs I created.

The fall on friday I nailed :-)
26th Aug 2022 SP500 correction top.png
 
The arcs are calculated using a method I devised based on Ganns square of nine. The arcs are only reactive around the time calculation.
30.8.2022.png
 
What do you think? More importantly, how will you trade it?

If bullish I'm trading China YINN KWEB and solar RUN long.

If bearish, SQQQ SOXS UVXY

I went long 20k+ inverses into the weekend. :D
That seems like gambling to me. Good to see you back in the saddle so soon. That was a quick "few months off"
 
Seems smart, but better hedge with some (mini Nasdaq) futures coming Monday. Because market could be fundamentally green Tuesday...
 
So, one week later we have the conclusion.

Monday wasn't the bloodbath everyone was expecting. Down 1.03 % at the LOD and closing down 0.67 % on the day.

The week as a whole closed down 3.29 %.

There doesn't seem to be much of a bid in this market and structurally this looks very much like a solid down trend still. If I were to guess, I'd say we're going lower still.
 
Back
Top