Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

[Laissez Faire]

I see 7 times, red Monday following red Friday, in $SPX the last year (including this past Monday):-

Is that manual work or do you have a script to check for that?

For 2022, I have 11 Mondays with a negative net change following a Friday with a negative net change. This is ES, but I would assume SPX would be similar.

But for my prior post, I was specifically looking at a relentless trend day down, i.e., 2 % down or more closing at bottom of the range. That hasn't happen so many times over the last few years.

I count 10 going back to 2015. The following Monday was net positive 70 % of the time.

 

[SunTrader]

Is that manual work or do you have a script to check for that?

For 2022, I have 11 Mondays with a negative net change following a Friday with a negative net change. This is ES, but I would assume SPX would be similar.

But for my prior post, I was specifically looking at a relentless trend day down, i.e., 2 % down or more closing at bottom of the range. That hasn't happen so many times over the last few years.

I count 10 going back to 2015. The following Monday was net positive 70 % of the time.

Too lazy to code something up. I just used ShowMe's. Then turned them off and added arrows/circles in their place to keep chart image from being too cluttered.

Thought about looking just for big down Fridays over longer period of time but again got lazy. Also working on other stuff ATM. Maybe before tomorrow's Globex open I'll take another look see.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Too lazy to code something up.

I'm lazy - hence why I have it coded up.

Feel free to let us know if you do any interesting studies tomorrow.

 

[MacBookProHo]

What do you think? More importantly, how will you trade it?

I went long 20k+ inverses into the weekend.

That's a gambling, crystal ball, future question -- whatever anyone is saying right now...it's purely a coin toss. And I don't think there is anyone in history who is successful at coin tossing accuracy.

To trade the future, or day/intraday, you have to observe it, understand it, in real time like a spider or octopus or rapist or abductor waiting for the opportunin time....because trading can be part art, part science.

Understand the overall picture, and how all its storm variables and elements are mixing and jiving all together.
Develop a hypothesis, but don't be so quick to act....look for Tells and signs, similar to a poker table.
The market is a human entity... it pays to be a psychologist, therapist, and historian and action hero, and detective, and author,

 

[easymon1]

What do you think? More importantly, how will you trade it?

If bullish I'm trading China YINN KWEB and solar RUN long.

If bearish, SQQQ SOXS UVXY

I went long 20k+ inverses into the weekend.

Adaptability - https://www.dogpile.com/serp?q=adaptability
Day Trading Adaptability - https://www.dogpile.com/serp?q=day+trading+adaptability

 

[TheDawn]

What do you think? More importantly, how will you trade it?

If bullish I'm trading China YINN KWEB and solar RUN long.

If bearish, SQQQ SOXS UVXY

I went long 20k+ inverses into the weekend.

Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

- I think it's neither. I think it's going to be a flat Monday. What happened on Friday was purely a knee-jerk reaction. The market usually takes a breather after a knee-jerk movement to calm down and digest to plan its next move. That's my observation.

So I would be very careful with any volatility play. And if I really want to make a move, I wouldn't go long.

 

[easymon1]

Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

- I think it's neither. I think it's going to be a flat Monday. What happened on Friday was purely a knee-jerk reaction. The market usually takes a breather after a knee-jerk movement to calm down and digest to plan its next move. That's my observation.

So I would be very careful with any volatility play. And if I really want to make a move, I wouldn't go long.

What timeframe charts do you trade?

 

[Overnight]

Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

- I think it's neither. I think it's going to be a flat Monday. What happened on Friday was purely a knee-jerk reaction. The market usually takes a breather after a knee-jerk movement to calm down and digest to plan its next move. That's my observation...

Are you out of your mind?!? That was not a knee-jerk reaction...That was a solid selling regimen into RTH close, and it continued down and down into the futures ETH close. The shit closed on a down tick. I expect this to continue. As I had mentioned in some other thread...The bull market cannot resume until the Fed indicates a pause on rate hikes or some other sign of QE. This idea, ( which was hoped for by some, me included,) was annihilated yesterday when Powell put his foot down.

Remember, there is no more PPT, because they cannot trade stocks any longer. So they don't give a shit. Hammer down!

 

[VEGASDESERT]

The weekly says up, the daily says down to sideways.

Beats me.

Coin flip it is.

 

[KCalhoun]

Yeah I expect a slight bounce possible, if inverses gap down premkt I'll sell if they go down another .3 from premkt lows, then rebuy if they bounce l8er

If they gap up I'll scale up...