Come Monday...
- Thread starter Bakinec
- Start date
Charts say we go higher, but I am short a little, just in case.
I still think we get another leg down, not to March lows, however. Commercial RE is the next shoe to drop. I also think unemployment will be much worse than most think. The UE numbers are not reflecting the fact that many have outrun their state benefits and now will be getting Fed UE payments. What happens when these run out? Unlike last recessions, the UE pay people are getting is substantial (as high as $900/week in MA) and has probably held up consumer spending in the short term. Back to school numbers will be a good indicator.
Apologies to BlSh for posting something almost as bearish as he does.
I still think we get another leg down, not to March lows, however. Commercial RE is the next shoe to drop. I also think unemployment will be much worse than most think. The UE numbers are not reflecting the fact that many have outrun their state benefits and now will be getting Fed UE payments. What happens when these run out? Unlike last recessions, the UE pay people are getting is substantial (as high as $900/week in MA) and has probably held up consumer spending in the short term. Back to school numbers will be a good indicator.
Apologies to BlSh for posting something almost as bearish as he does.
Looks like I was off a little. But I do remember an article that stated the $900 figure for MA as being the highest in the nation.
http://fileunemployment.org/unemployment-benefits-comparison-by-state
Only when my wifes in the mood.
Quote from Arnie:
Charts say we go higher, but I am short a little, just in case.
I still think we get another leg down, not to March lows, however. Commercial RE is the next shoe to drop. I also think unemployment will be much worse than most think. The UE numbers are not reflecting the fact that many have outrun their state benefits and now will be getting Fed UE payments. What happens when these run out? Unlike last recessions, the UE pay people are getting is substantial (as high as $900/week in MA) and has probably held up consumer spending in the short term. Back to school numbers will be a good indicator.
Apologies to BlSh for posting something almost as bearish as he does.
Volume on this last brazen move up is ridiculously low. As a matter of fact, it's been nearly the lowest since this bear rally started in March if you coutn the volume on all the bars up since the last swing bottom, at least according to my S&P e-mini daily chart.
Starting Monday, I reckon we'll make a double bottom at the last swing point going into mid-late August on the SnP, rise back to near the last swing point made last Friday, making a double top, and then crumble past the 666
I recently read that FSAB wants to reinstate the accounting market-to-market rules it reversed this spring and .don't forget about commercial mortgage delinquencies. Worst is yet to come.
