Combining multiple systems

Quote from mind:
i found your post a little too obvious in the first place,
but actually you nailed it.
More...
Because it's that simple :)
You can try to apply some very advanced math to a coin game, but the damn coin will still land on each side with a 0.5 probability. Not much you can do about this (that's why you shouldn't play coin game or roulette for real money).

If you do not have a method to predict stock movements you are playing a coin game. Yes, you can apply a lot of math here too, but it won't help you.

With all the respect to MAESTRO (and I mean this, because I really find a lot of interesting in this posts), this time he is wrong. You can not win in trading just using some math "paradox". Which isn't actually paradoxical after all :)
 
I assumed that MAESTRO was not talking about the trivial that frustrated everybody. I solved for the case where there are 4 different continuing series which have 50/50 chance of being heads or tails on the next timeframe. I then assumed that difference between time periods was unknown. Thinking about it now, I'm guessing he meant at time t and t+1, where t could be 1 to infiniti.

MAESTRO, could you clerify your criteria.
 
Sorry, guys. I am back to the hospital. My health is not letting me to be as active as I wanted. You are all wonderful curious people. If I made you think and try different things I am very happy and somewhat have achieved the purpose. I will clarify a few things when I am back from the treatment.
Cheers,
MAESTRO
 
sh.t. MAESTRO, do well, no idea what your situation is,
but hospitals are no place you go for vacation. here's
caring for you ...

g.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

Sorry, guys. I am back to the hospital. My health is not letting me to be as active as I wanted. You are all wonderful curious people. If I made you think and try different things I am very happy and somewhat have achieved the purpose. I will clarify a few things when I am back from the treatment.
Cheers,
MAESTRO
More...

I wish you well maestro!
 
Well, assuming that the probabilities of the stock moving up/down/sideways are 33% at the end of the interval, and the first move of the price is Up, then the prob. are:

-66% up
-33% down

This is with an interval divided into 2 steps. I have not done any further calculations but I suspect that given N steps for the same experiment, one would end up with the fib. ratios TSGann mentioned earlier.

This sounds very counter intuitive. I think I will be called an idiot in at least one of the next 5 posts for saying this (also considering this is my first post here), but I think Maestro's point was to provide us with the simplest explanation of why markets can be random and trending at the same time.
 
Maestro!!!!

I was playing with some truth tables and by golly, unless I overlooked something, I believe you are correct about looking at the conditional probability in a non-conventional monte hall type approach. I can even see a very possible relevance to parrondo.

About the only drawback with this type of thinking (as I mentioned earlier) is the assumption of binary betting and payouts.
Otherwise, it is pretty amazing, and I haven't seen it anywhere else.

When I get a chance I'll try to simulate some long runs to determine it's veracity, but looking at the implications, I think it is correct and has merit. While I'm not certain I am thinking the same thing you were getting at, looking back at all of your clues and hints, it makes perfect sense.

Get better. We need more thinkers like you over here!
 
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