Quote from bettles:
I know that performance of the US stock market is inversely correlated with the euro. For example, priced in euros, the US stock indexes are still within a few percent of their highs. So if the euro does fall apart in coming weeks, would that mean another big surge in US stock prices? Likewise, if the euro ultimately "goes to zero" would that imply that US stock prices will ultimately "go to infinity"?
Bettles
Quote from christianhgross:
I find it funny that all of the people predicting a collapse of the Euro are the ones that have the most to gain?
Time and time again I hear about how British and American analysts seem to understand the Eurozone and how it works. Hey here is a thought, maybe they don't!
I have lived in the Euro-zone, in the UK, and in America and let me tell you most analysts outside the Euro-zone don't get the Euro-zone.
Quote from makloda:
What does Greece resemble more closely in term of socio-economic progress? UK? Or Albania?
There you have your answer.
Greece is decades away of even coming close to the UK in infrastructure, education facilities, health care, industry, services. Do I need to go on?
Quote from Martinghoul:
If you want to read a nice blog about the state of affairs in the Eurozone, try this one, it's really good: http://fistfulofeuros.net/
As to UK and Greece there's no comparison, really. Manufacturing-wise, UK ranks seventh in the world. Moreover, given their ability to print the ccy, they won't ever default. Yes, sterling might take a beating, but, unless it's catastrophic, it's sort of a positive, in the medium term.
Quote from makloda:
and yet I was defending Britain because it seems to be a favorite target among ET posters. The comparison of Club Med's prospects for recovery (chances=zero) and Britain's prospects (chances=slim) are significant, just in my opinion.
Quote from peilthetraveler:
When you say "all over the place" you are not kidding. When i was there, all the bars are cram packed with standing room only, that how many drunks are there. The bar doesnt even have to be popular or on a main street. It will be packed at night. Hooligans are all over. England is the only place in the world I have ever been mugged, and the only country I have ever got in a physical fight when i was traveling. I dont know about hookers as I dont look for those types but I will say when i was over there, I met a girl in a bar, made out, gave her my number and the next day a guy calls me telling me he's her fiancee and he takes care of her two children and to stay away from her, so that kind of qualifies as a hooker in my opinion.
I would personally rather live with natives in a hut with no electricity than live in england. Thats how bad the people are over there.
Quote from dandxg:
No bud you got it backwards. The stock market is positively correlated with the euro. They move inverse to the USD, the DX. Don't believe pull up the ES, 6E, and the DX and watch themselves yourselves. Why do you think the stock market is getting pounded...................?
It because of the EU debacle and the DX getting stronger. As that happens stocks take a dump.
Quote from new$:
"The Frankfurter Allgemeine summed up German feelings when it asked why taxpayers should bail out a country that thinks it an outrage to raise the retirement age to 63. "Should Germans have to work in the future until 69 instead of 67 so that Greeks can enjoy early retirement?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...any-growls-as-Greece-balks-at-immolation.html
:eek:
Quote from makloda:
Walk through the streets of a typical British city, then walk through the streets of a Greek city. The differences in economic and social progress are shocking to say the least.
Going to Greece is like taking a time machine back to the 1950s. Goats in the streets, children with bare feet playing in the yard. Old folks with no teeth. A grand mom making some yogurt as the sun goes down. Labor productivity per hour is some 40% below Germany. As per your comparison, the UK is "only" 10% below Germany and the implosion of their currency only helps make them more competitive. The Greek alongside Club Med no longer have a separate currency that the markets can use to adjust in order make up for their miserable productivity. They have the EUR pulling them down like an iron ball chained to their feet.
Make no mistake, the UK is in a lot of trouble, but the UK has a chance to dig itself out of its hole over a stretch of a decade or two. Devaluing Sterling (making imports less attractive) even more, thus increasing exports, painfully hiking taxes gradually, paying off debt, printing money. There's no guarantee this will work out, but it's a scenario that at least has a remote chance of success.
What does Greece have? What are the perspectives, considering the disastrous productivity, widespread tax dodging and shadow economy, the unemployment among the young and the fact they're bound to the EUR? Nil. Just endless pain without a realistic chance for recovery.
The best thing that could happen to Club Med ironically would be a military coup or right wing group taking power in Germany that would take Germany out of the EU and EUR zone overnight. The EUR idea would collapse within days and Club Med would have a chance to take the right medicine to recover. They could default on part of their debt if necessary, then float a new currency and start over.
Obviously, the chances for this to happen anytime soon are slim. The Germans will bail out their European brothers until the bitter end. Until there are riots in the streets of Berlin of disgruntled tax payers who don't understand why they have diligently been saving 15% of their disposable income for the last 50 years for the "rainy days" just so their good money is now thrown to the PIGS in the south. This charade will fly with the German proletarians only so long.