Collapse of the euro is 'inevitable' says French Banking Chief

[Misthos]

Quote from makloda:

Walk through the streets of a typical British city, then walk through the streets of a Greek city. The differences in economic and social progress are shocking to say the least.

Typical Greek City? I've visited Greece 14 times since the 1970s. Been to England too.

You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.

If Greece is so horrific and backwards, why the hell do I always see English Pensioners ditching the UK and moving to Greece?

I am Greek American. In the 1970s and much of the 1980s, when I visited Greece, I was seen as the "rich American." In the late 1990s to today, things changed. Now they look at Greek Americans with pity. They view them as brainwashed, overworked tools that get a mere 2 weeks vacation. My friend's homes in Greece are friggin villas you would see in LA. It was nothing like that 20-30 years ago.

 

[makloda]

What does Greece resemble more closely in term of socio-economic progress? UK? Or Albania?

There you have your answer.

Greece is decades away of even coming close to the UK in infrastructure, education facilities, health care, industry, services. Do I need to go on?

BTW: Did you look at EURGBP these last 2 years? Those Brit pensioners you mentioned.. they're moving back. They're broke.

 

[Martinghoul]

As someone pointed out, Albert Edwards and Dylan Grice have been beating this "end of the world" drum for a while now. Neither can be described as "French Banking Chiefs". They are global macro strategists and it's worth knowing that often, in their biz, the more outrageous you sound, the more clients you get.

I think lots of people outside of Europe misunderstand just how much support there is in Greece and other Club Med countries for the Euro.

Also, while the Eurozone govts are not self-funding, as someone mentioned, the fact that the ECB is extremely generous means that the banking systems across Europe are stable for now.

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from makloda:

Walk through the streets of a typical British city, then walk through the streets of a Greek city. The differences in economic and social progress are shocking to say the least.

Going to Greece is like taking a time machine back to the 1950s. Goats in the streets, children with bare feet playing in the yard. Old folks with no teeth. A grand mom making some yogurt as the sun goes down. Labor productivity per hour is some 40% below Germany. As per your comparison, the UK is "only" 10% below Germany and the implosion of their currency only helps make them more competitive. The Greek alongside Club Med no longer have a separate currency that the markets can use to adjust in order make up for their miserable productivity. They have the EUR pulling them down like an iron ball chained to their feet.

Make no mistake, the UK is in a lot of trouble, but the UK has a chance to dig itself out of its hole over a stretch of a decade or two. Devaluing Sterling (making imports less attractive) even more, thus increasing exports, painfully hiking taxes gradually, paying off debt, printing money. There's no guarantee this will work out, but it's a scenario that at least has a remote chance of success.

What does Greece have? What are the perspectives, considering the disastrous productivity, widespread tax dodging and shadow economy, the unemployment among the young and the fact they're bound to the EUR? Nil. Just endless pain without a realistic chance for recovery.

The best thing that could happen to Club Med ironically would be a military coup or right wing group taking power in Germany that would take Germany out of the EU and EUR zone overnight. The EUR idea would collapse within days and Club Med would have a chance to take the right medicine to recover. They could default on part of their debt if necessary, then float a new currency and start over.

Obviously, the chances for this to happen anytime soon are slim. The Germans will bail out their European brothers until the bitter end. Until there are riots in the streets of Berlin of disgruntled tax payers who don't understand why they have diligently been saving 15% of their disposable income for the last 50 years for the "rainy days" just so their good money is now thrown to the PIGS in the south. This charade will fly with the German proletarians only so long.

Alot of truth here.

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from Misthos:

Typical Greek City? I've visited Greece 14 times since the 1970s. Been to England too.

You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.

If Greece is so horrific and backwards, why the hell do I always see English Pensioners ditching the UK and moving to Greece?

I am Greek American. In the 1970s and much of the 1980s, when I visited Greece, I was seen as the "rich American." In the late 1990s to today, things changed. Now they look at Greek Americans with pity. They view them as brainwashed, overworked tools that get a mere 2 weeks vacation. My friend's homes in Greece are friggin villas you would see in LA. It was nothing like that 20-30 years ago.

I like Greece and the Greek, and yes they have (or can have if they are in the correct circles) good lifestyles, but its like comparing apples to oranges culturally and economically. BTW no one likes the Brits except the Brits and even they hate each other.

 

[Debaser82]

Quote from makloda:



The best thing that could happen to Club Med ironically would be a military coup or right wing group taking power in Germany that would take Germany out of the EU and EUR zone overnight. The EUR idea would collapse within days and Club Med would have a chance to take the right medicine to recover. They could default on part of their debt if necessary, then float a new currency and start over.

What happens to the hundreds of billion Euro German banking exposure to the Club Med?

They just write it off?

 

[Misthos]

Quote from makloda:

What does Greece resemble more closely in term of socio-economic progress? UK? Or Albania?

There you have your answer.

Greece is decades away of even coming close to the UK in infrastructure, education facilities, health care, industry, services. Do I need to go on?

Your comparison of Greece with the US is laughable. You're making a fool out of yourself.

More ignorance...

Albania is Greece's Mexico. Albanian migrant workers are found in construction and on farms picking produce. But they too, are leaving Greece much like the Mexicans in the US. This is global.

But you're the typical brainwashed tool that thinks the rest of the world climbs banana trees wearing loin cloths. Keep working like a dog and maintain that arrogant attitude - I'm sure that's what keeps you going. When this whole global ponzi economy comes down, you and I and everyone else will be wiped out anyway.

And by the way, the UK is screwed too. You know why? Their numbers are just as bad as Greece's, and North Sea oil production has been declining since 1999. Don't get me wrong - both countries, Greece and the UK will face hardship. But your characterization of Greece is about 40 yrs off.

 

[Debaser82]

It turns out from the BIS [Bank of International Settlements] numbers, that the largest holders of Greek debt are French, followed by the Swiss, although my guess is that a lot of that is hedged, and I don't know that the BIS picks that up, and then the Germans. The numbers as of last June were France €86 billion, Switzerland €60bn, and Germany €44 billion. I have seen more recent numbers of France €73b, Switzerland €59b, and Germany €39b. In terms of GDP, for Germany it is minimal - just over 1%. Of more concern, for France it is nearly 3%, and for Belgium 2.5%. For Germany, the debts of Ireland, Portugal and Spain are much bigger problems. They may, however, worry that if there is a contagion, they will have to take marks on that debt. That would be a real problem - nearly 15x the size of the Greek issue."

The recent credit crisis was over a few trillion in bad, mostly US, mortgage debts, with most of that at US banks. Greek debt is $350 billion, with about $270 billion of that spread among just three European countries and their banks. Make no mistake, a Greek default is another potential credit crisis in the making. As noted above, it is not just the writedown of Greek debt; it is the mark-to-market of other sovereign debt.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/02/mauldin_between.html

 

[zdreg]

Quote from makloda:

What does Greece resemble more closely in term of socio-economic progress? UK? Or Albania?

There you have your answer.

Greece is decades away of even coming close to the UK in infrastructure, education facilities, health care, industry, services. Do I need to go on?

BTW: Did you look at EURGBP these last 2 years? Those Brit pensioners you mentioned.. they're moving back. They're broke.

In the mean time in the last 7 years middle class britsh expats to canada and australia have done quite well for themselves by selling their overpriced british homes and immigrating. they have bought equivalent homes at lower prices and use the cash to start businesses.

 

[intradaybill]

Quote from makloda:

Going to Greece is like taking a time machine back to the 1950s. Goats in the streets, children with bare feet playing in the yard. Old folks with no teeth. A grand mom making some yogurt as the sun goes down.

Have you been to Greece? 20 Ferraris were sold to Greek buyers during the last three months. More than in Italy.

Greece controls over 30% of international shipping. The problems is that due to an old law, it is tax free business. Greece has untapped oil reserves but Turkey does not let them explore it under the threat of war. Greece has more uranium than the rest of the world combined. Aluminum and coal too. Its problem is political corruption.