COGN , what is going on

with this pos ? An amazing 2000bp gains in DEC ( not reporting) month in few days , very heavy 45 calls volume ( COGN at 40) . Are criminals buying ahead of buyout ?
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

with this pos ? An amazing 2000bp gains in DEC ( not reporting) month in few days , very heavy 45 calls volume ( COGN at 40) . Are criminals buying ahead of buyout ?

The 45 calls today were 62% bought on the ask, 38% sold on the bid. That's rarely the sign of insider knowledge--usually you'll see the vast majority on one side.

Still, overall volume is pretty bullish.

Jan & Dec 35P
Dec 35P
Dec 37.5P
Jan 40P

all have been almost exclusively sold.

Jan 40Ps so far are the largest dollar sink/source from options. $173k more in premium was sold than purchased at that strike.

Jan 35Cs were 100% purchased for $126k in premium.

Bullish outlook, but nothing "odd" here.
 
Quote from FullyArticulate:

The 45 calls today were 62% bought on the ask, 38% sold on the bid. That's rarely the sign of insider knowledge--usually you'll see the vast majority on one side.

Still, overall volume is pretty bullish.

Jan & Dec 35P
Dec 35P
Dec 37.5P
Jan 40P

all have been almost exclusively sold.

Jan 40Ps so far are the largest dollar sink/source from options. $173k more in premium was sold than purchased at that strike.

Jan 35Cs were 100% purchased for $126k in premium.

Bullish outlook, but nothing "odd" here.

FA , thanks for an bid/ask breakdown ; I don't have this info. I just happened to be in JAN vega trade and noticed this unusual ramp in DEC vols...
 
That's a reasonable point I didn't see until I reread your post--earnings are after Dec expiration. Why a 100% OI turnover in Dec 45 calls?

I don't think it's an insider due to the somewhat neutral balance of buyers and sellers, but still--14 days to move at least 12%? Without earnings to help?

Lots more volume on those 45 calls since my last post, they're now 59% bought, 41% sold.

Is there a risk they'll preannounce or something? The IV on December is nuts for a scheduled earnings date after expiration.

-Dec 45C +Jan 50C is free and seems reasonable.
 
Quote from FullyArticulate:

That's a reasonable point I didn't see until I reread your post--earnings are after Dec expiration. Why a 100% OI turnover in Dec 45 calls?

I don't think it's an insider due to the somewhat neutral balance of buyers and sellers, but still--14 days to move at least 12%? Without earnings to help?

Lots more volume on those 45 calls since my last post, they're now 59% bought, 41% sold.

FA , exactly ! Plus the 2000bp ramp on DEC in 3 days , very weird !
 
Quote from IV_Trader:

FA , exactly ! Plus the 2000bp ramp on DEC in 3 days , very weird !
Weighted average IV for Dec in the 53% range--are you saying they were 33% 3 days ago, or 42%?
 
Quote from FullyArticulate:

Weighted average IV for Dec in the 53% range--are you saying they were 33% 3 days ago, or 42%?

it was low 40th...Yes , current vols are around 53 , but only one hour ago it was 63...so weird...and crazy volume is still going on , huge transactions
 
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