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Coffee . . .
- Thread starter waggie945
- Start date
Since there is absolutely no volatility in the Coffee market right now, I believe that the safest way to play Coffee is to try a delta neutral strategy. I'm thinking about buying some puts now on Coffee as we get our pullback, then I will go long into the coffee futures. I will go delta neutral so that I will place a floor on my possible loss (except for theta of course) then I will await the explosive increase if coffee prices.
Are there any other Coffee Hedgers out there?
Are there any other Coffee Hedgers out there?
I think we just had our pullback. I picked up some May coffe around 76 and will look to add more, especially if we break the Jan highs around 80-81. Stop is a close below the lows of Monday & last thursday, although I will hold a couple of contracts with a closing stop below the Jan lows @ 69.
Quote from Cutten:
I think we just had our pullback. I picked up some May coffe around 76 and will look to add more, especially if we break the Jan highs around 80-81. Stop is a close below the lows of Monday & last thursday, although I will hold a couple of contracts with a closing stop below the Jan lows @ 69.
I did the same thing today. Tight stop at 75.20 I am not sure how much upside break there will be though given the weak fundamentals. I'll see what action occurs if it get around the 80 level. - rcm.
From a wave perspective on the monthly coffee chart, I think that we are about to put in the 5th leg higher in the first impulse up.
I still think that we'll get a big pullback of about 60-70 whenever the top is in.
If you look back at previous lows on the monthly chart, it took some time time to go up, it always had a big pullback. I believe that we need a big pullback in order to trap a whole bunch of people into going short one last time so that we will have the fuel to rip up huge for the big move.
Any other people seeing this outcome as a possibility?
I still think that we'll get a big pullback of about 60-70 whenever the top is in.
If you look back at previous lows on the monthly chart, it took some time time to go up, it always had a big pullback. I believe that we need a big pullback in order to trap a whole bunch of people into going short one last time so that we will have the fuel to rip up huge for the big move.
Any other people seeing this outcome as a possibility?
This is the pullback in coffee that I was calling for. In wave terms, I think we are doing an ABC pullback on the daily coffee charts, and this is a W2 to the downside.
On the March contract, I have a downside target of 67 cents with a potential to hit 63 cents. I would be a big buyer between 65 and 67 cents.
The pullback retracment after the initial move upward is all ways really scarry for the longs, and alot of people that went long above 70 cents are getting shaken. This is why it is always worth it to let the market do its own thing and break the monthly or daily trends, and you can wait for the pullback. The nicest thing about this is that you can go long at 67 cents and then stop out at 59 cents which is the multi year low.
On the March contract, I have a downside target of 67 cents with a potential to hit 63 cents. I would be a big buyer between 65 and 67 cents.
The pullback retracment after the initial move upward is all ways really scarry for the longs, and alot of people that went long above 70 cents are getting shaken. This is why it is always worth it to let the market do its own thing and break the monthly or daily trends, and you can wait for the pullback. The nicest thing about this is that you can go long at 67 cents and then stop out at 59 cents which is the multi year low.
Quote from Reitberg:
This is the pullback in coffee that I was calling for. In wave terms, I think we are doing an ABC pullback on the daily coffee charts, and this is a W2 to the downside.
On the March contract, I have a downside target of 67 cents with a potential to hit 63 cents. I would be a big buyer between 65 and 67 cents.
The pullback retracment after the initial move upward is all ways really scarry for the longs, and alot of people that went long above 70 cents are getting shaken. This is why it is always worth it to let the market do its own thing and break the monthly or daily trends, and you can wait for the pullback. The nicest thing about this is that you can go long at 67 cents and then stop out at 59 cents which is the multi year low.
Big move today ... glad I started by only selling puts.
But the move down is good. Wouldn't want Coffee to simply run away to the upside without providing any good entries now would we?
Right on, Blue.
It is healthy for a good retracement to the downside. It will flush out the weak longs and then everybody will think that coffee will fall again, and the shorts will get trapped big time on the pullback.
Hey Blue, I figured out something. I have been looking at a lot of commodities in terms of Euros, and a lot of commodities have not done much, but Coffee is definately moving in terms of Euros. It is nice to see that Coffee is in a breakout to the upside in terms of all major currencies. Go coffee go!
Also, I'm going to wait for my pullback to go long coffee and I might actually buy some protective puts just in case coffee does puke it big time to the downside. Then I will buy some out of the money calls in May just in case this puppy rips up big for us.
So it will be a long strangle with long underlying spread.
It is healthy for a good retracement to the downside. It will flush out the weak longs and then everybody will think that coffee will fall again, and the shorts will get trapped big time on the pullback.
Hey Blue, I figured out something. I have been looking at a lot of commodities in terms of Euros, and a lot of commodities have not done much, but Coffee is definately moving in terms of Euros. It is nice to see that Coffee is in a breakout to the upside in terms of all major currencies. Go coffee go!
Also, I'm going to wait for my pullback to go long coffee and I might actually buy some protective puts just in case coffee does puke it big time to the downside. Then I will buy some out of the money calls in May just in case this puppy rips up big for us.
So it will be a long strangle with long underlying spread.
Futures collapsed under pressure from nervous liquidation as expectations of a large tender on first notice day ( Thursday ) and unexpected gains in Green Coffee Association stocks hit the market.
Sentiment getting super NEGATIVE.
High open interest levels ( 110,426 as of Wed ) complicated yesterday's exodus. Funds are long and commercials are enormously short.
Stay tuned!
Sentiment getting super NEGATIVE.
High open interest levels ( 110,426 as of Wed ) complicated yesterday's exodus. Funds are long and commercials are enormously short.
Stay tuned!