Coffee . . .

Contrarian Indicator Indeed.

Check out this humorous post I made a long time back concerning another indicator from the alternate ideas section this time concerning cocoa: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=135552#post135552

On a more serious point waggie945 has an excellent point. For any good trade you have to have a catalyst. A catalyst is so crucial. This is something I heard Steven A Cohen preach in an interview and it stuck with me. If you are just shorting because things are "too high" or buying because things are "too low" you are going to get killed. Try some of those strategies walking forward through the Nasdaq Bubble and you will see what I mean. Didn't 1998 look "too high" in many ways? Didn't the last part of 2000 look "too low"? Try riding through the following years waiting to be right. Its a sure way to insanity.

There are so many things out there that look too high (S&P, India, Gold) and too low (USD, Softs) but wait for a catalyst you really understand and your trades will be much better off.
 
Yo Waggie. OJ is looking ripe for a bullish trend. I'm looking at a monthly RSI, and it looks oversold. Some of my other indicators are saying that OJ can go a bit more south.

Waggie, are you seeing crazy articles about OJ? Got any links to stories about oversupply?

I'm looking at monthly cocoa charts too. A few analysts are getting bullish on cocoa, but I see a lot more to the downside in Cocoa. I guess it could consolidate here, but I'm really not sure.

I'd put my money down on COFFEE and OJ before any other commodities.
 
Yo.

I don't need to read any articles about oversupply of Orange Juice Concentrate. All I have to do is look at the chart, and the price . . .

:D
 
IMO OJ is in a secular downtrend, especially with all this Atkin's/low carb + sugar diets around. My family used to drink tons of the stuff now I can count the # of glasses of OJ I've had last year on one hand. Then again a nice drought/frost in Brazil and we're off to the moon :)
 
I wish I knew what the hell was going on in the stock market like I know what is going on in coffee.

I'm seriously on the verge of quitting my equities futures trading and just trading coffee. Might be worth it to concentrate on just one market. Waggie, am I an idiot?
 
Yo Waggie, I got my coffee account open with a new broker. I was using IB so I could only trade equities futures, gold, natural gas, and crude.


I show 59 cents as the low on on chart for coffee, and another chart says 56 cents. what do you guys show at the bottom in cofee?

I'm looking for a pullback to 64-66 cents. Then I will go long.
 
Concentrating on 1-2 markets and trading them well is nothing to sneeze at!

Personally, I really like the T-Bonds.
They trend very nicely and they give you a great bang for the buck!

:p
 
I agree Waggie. I like to trade the ER2(mini RUT) and the ZN(the electronic ten year treasuries on the ECBOT).

I'm going to concentrate on the ER2, the ZN, and coffee. That is about it.

Oh, and speaking about bang for the buck, the ER2 is the best bang for the buck that I've found.
 
"Certainly when you have a position with a profit. Anytime the market goes up a reasonable amount - say a strong day's work - after you've put on a position, it's probably worth adding to that position. I wouldn't want to wait for a retracement. That is everyone's favorite technique - to buy something strong that retraces. I don't see any justification in the statistics for that. When beans are at $8.00 and go to $9.00, if the choice is to buy them at $9.00 or buy them if they retrace to $8.80, I'd rather buy them at $9.00. They may never retrace to $8.80. Statistics would show that you make more money buying them and not waiting for a retracement."

RD
 
I think people like to wait for a retracement because they get a better feeling for where the market is headed. Also, there is the greed factor too. People like to ramp up their trades on the retracement, rather than ramping up the trade at the top.

If you have a ton of money and you don't care about where you get in, then it doesn't matter.

I agree with the point that you are making, Waggie.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top