LONDON, Mar 09, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- World coffee production in 2010-11 is expected to total 133.7 million 60-kilogram bags, the International Coffee Organization said Wednesday, up 8.6% on year but still lower than its previous forecasts.
The intergovernmental group lowered its February estimate by 900,000 bags due to a predicted 3.2% fall in output from the Asian and Oceana region after heavy rainfall cut output by 16.5% on year in major robusta producer Indonesia.
World exports of the lower-quality beans have suffered as a result, the ICO said. While total coffee exports from October 2010 to January 2011 rose 13.4% on year to 33.7 million bags, robusta shipments fell 5.9%.
Arabica exports rose 24.7% over the first four months of the marketing season, boosted by 12.8 million bags of exports from top producer Brazil, compared to 10.5 million bags for the same period in 2009-10, and a 900,000 bag rise in exports from Colombia.
Still, the ICO noted that "world stocks have been significantly eroded due to supply problems and increased exports." Opening stocks for 2010-11 were estimated down a third compared with the previous season at 13 million bags.
"With prices expected to continue at such remunerative levels, a high level of export performance can also be expected in coffee year 2010-11," the ICO said. "However, the prospect for replenishment of stocks in producing countries remains weak."
-By Caroline Henshaw, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9478;
caroline.henshaw@dowjones.com
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KAMPALA, Uganda, Mar 09, 2011 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Uganda's March coffee exports are expected to drop by at least 17% on year as the main harvest winds down in Eastern and Central Uganda, the state-run Uganda Coffee Development Authority said Wednesday.
UCDA projects March exports to drop to 180,000 60-kilogram bags from 201,809 bags exported in the same month last season.
"The stocks in the hands of producers are also low due to lower yields from the just concluded harvest," a UCDA trade official told Dow Jones Newswires.
Eastern and Central Uganda account for at least 55% of the country's total coffee output.
UCDA attributes lower yields from the harvest in the Eastern and Central coffee regions to drought and pests and diseases which affected mainly robusta trees in the two regions.
Ugandan coffee farmers are preparing for the second harvest in the Western and Southern coffee regions later next month. The two regions produce mainly robusta.
Uganda is Africa's largest robusta producer and robustas account for at least 85% of the country's total coffee output.
UCDA data indicate the country's coffee exports in the first five months of the 2010-11 (October-September) coffee year dropped 8% on the year to 1.1 million bags.
Despite the drop Uganda maintains its earlier projection for 2010-11 coffee exports at 3.1 million bags compared with 2.7 million bags exported last season.
Uganda exports nearly all its coffee output in bean form, mainly to European Union markets, and the country consumes only around 2% of its annual coffee output.
-By Nicholas Bariyo, contributing to Dow Jones Newswires; 256-75-2624615
bariyonic@yahoo.co.uk
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
03-09-11 0508ET
Same BS you deal with in oil, who cares what expectations are
